Adelaide
With a 25.79 point improvement on last years average score a game, Adelaide were the biggest improver of the year on the scoresheet.
Travesty how they weren't playing finals.
Attack has always been their priority since Matthew Nicks took over and 2023 was off the back of scoring from intercepting their opposition.
Interestingly they were below AFL average for accuracy but ranked number 1 for shots per inside 50, scoring shots per inside 50 and goals per inside 50.
All that off the back averaging 29.3 shots for goal a game.
Not a team you want to be getting in a shoot out with.
They've got some damage in the front half, with Rankine, Pedlar and Rachele kicking 84 goals between them, but is a high percentage of their score off the back of targeting an ageing Taylor Walker?
76 goals is a huge amount from a 33 year old, his best season ever, his next best in 2012 and 2015.
If you want to go head to head with them, it'll be a contest, literally and figuratively.
Adelaide matches have the 2nd most stoppages outside of centre bounce.
They also feature the 2nd most contested possessions and the 4th most contested possessions purely won at ground level.
Tackling is a force.
5.12 opposition disposals per tackle is ranked number 1, as well as the least amount of opposition uncontested marks in the middle and back thirds.
You'll earn the points here.
Brisbane
Lets be honest, Brisbane didn't need to change much to improve or hold steady to their previous form to see them become grand finalists.
The number 1 stoppage clearance differential team in the competition, but their scores from that area didn't match their dominance.
Where they did maximum damage was scores from intercept, the number 1 team in scores from intercept differential.
They play direct and prefer to use kicking to get there.
The number 1 kicking team in competition and equal 3rd for metres gained per disposal. Brisbane don't overuse the ball, they average the second least disposals a game.
All this helps in their defending.
They're ranked number one for opposition disposals per inside 50.
If you win it or win it back from them, you've got a long way to go to get yourself into an attacking position.
Scoring was once again consistent from the Lions.
Ten of the 17 wins featured a score over 100 points, one of their losses did also, the one point loss to Melbourne in round 18.
They've ranked top 3 the last 3 years for average goals scored a game.
Not much has to change again for them to be a danger in 24'
Carlton
When you look at Carlton in 2023 its amazing to think that they didn't make finals the previous year.
They were Adelaide in 2022.
They didn't need to make a huge improvement they just needed more things to go their way.
Compared to Brisbane, Carlton had a worse stoppage clearance differential but were able to score almost double the differential from that source, but, even though they had a bigger intercept differential than Brisbane, Brisbane was able to score 14 times more than them from that source.
Is this where the next level of improvement comes? Punishing the opposition more from pressure.
They do put a lot of their scores through the same players. An average of 7.1 goal scorers a game is the 4th least, only better than the Eagles, Kangaroos and Hawks.
Their efficiency inside 50 could improve, sitting mid to bottom third of the table in goals per inside 50 as well as scoring shots, shots per inside 50 and marks per inside 50.
All achievable goals for a lift that could take them one step further.
Their defence held up very well.
Ranked 1 for the least amount of opposition shots per inside 50 and opposition goals per inside 50.
Though they had some luck in their opponents expected accuracy with them ranking number 1.
Collingwood
You don't normally see a team that finishes the previous season in a preliminary final improve their scoring for and against by almost 17 points a game, it could've been more.
Defence improved but it's the offence that did the most damage.
The most effective area? Their scores from intercept.
Top 3 for turning an intercept into an inside 50 and top 5 for turning an intercept into a shot.
Then comes the accuracy.
Like bad kicking is bad football, good kicking is good football.
52.5% accuracy, ranked best in 2023.
What also helped was their opposition would average 44.4% accuracy, the second worst in 2023 and the biggest differential.
Theres a lot talked about their age demographic but a 20 year old played 22 games, Nick Daicos.
A 22 year old played 25 games, Beau Mcreery.
Hill and Quaynor both 23 played 24 and 26 games.
Murphy 24 years old played 24 and
Josh Daicos 25 years played 26.
Averaging 8.6 different goal kickers a game, rank 1, shows how much scoring options the team had. Mihocek lead the goal kicking with only 47 goals, equal 12th, but 14 players were able to kick 10 or more goals for the year.
Essendon
Essendon won 11 games in 2023 against 7 games in 2022 (there was an extra round in 2023) but was only able to average ~1 goal a game improvement overall.
After round 13 they were on track for a larger improvement in both for and against.
But from round 15 against Fremantle until round 24 against Collingwood, Essendon's opponents went 135.8 points above expected score.
Thats more than 2 goals a game better than the AFL average.
Up to Round 17, the oppositions accuracy was at 45.23%
From round 17 to 24 it rose to 57.42%
The AFL average was 48.1%
In the last 8 games, the opposition went almost 5% better than the league's number 1 team for the year.
Remember, Collingwood is number one ranked at 52.5%
One of the major improvements to the attacking side can come from retaining the ball more regularly in the front half, mainly through intercepting the ball in the midfield and turning it into a score.
On average 17.39 points were generated from intercept in that area.
These are the teams who scored more than 20.
Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Sydney, all finalists, and then the teams who didn't make finals in Adelaide, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs.
Essendon ranking just behind the other 2 finalists in Carlton and St. Kilda.
Even a slight improvement will make a big difference on the scoreboard.
But more needs to be done on the opposing scoreboard.
Fremantle
Fremantle went from finishing 5th, only half a game from 4th position in 2022 to 14th off the back of dropping 5 and a half games.
The major reasoning behind this was in defending scores.
2022 saw them ranked the 3rd best defensive team behind Melbourne and Premiers Geelong, only allowing on average 66.54 points a game.
But if there was an improvement to be made the following year, it needed to come from their scoring side.
2022's average score of 79.04 was clearly worst of the top 8, in fact it was only better than 6 other teams and 5 of them finished in the bottom 5.
Unfortunately the scoring average barely changed to 79.78 and then the team couldn't defend to anywhere near the level previously.
66.54 points against became 82.52, almost a 3 goal swing the wrong way.
2022 saw their opponents enter forward 50 on average 50.0 times a game, 2023 was virtually the same at 50.6.
But rebounding the opposition entries went from being the number one team to 13th.
They couldn't stop their opponents finding targets in there.
23.2% of the time it was marked compared to 18.9% in 2022. That's 3rd best to 13th.
Geelong
Player stability looks to have been a major reason as to why the Premiers of 2022 took a major dive in 2023 to ultimately finish 12th.
97.54 points a game became 90.78 but conceding a score went from 67.63 to 80.65.
Key sized defending options in Blicavs, De Koning and Kolodjashni went from playing 24, 23 and 23 games respectively in 2022 to all playing 19 the following year. Add link up players like Duncan and Guthrie going from 22 and 25 games to then 16 and 6, and of course Joel Selwood retiring and the stability that was there in the previous year became inconsistent.
Geelong will be hoping that was a part in the team conceding more.
The number 3 rebounding team from defensive 50 became the 14th 12 months later, a lot off the back of their opposition now taking 12.9 marks a game in that area, up from 9.4.
Most damaging was the opponent having a shot for goal 50.4% of the time it went in there. Only West Coast were poorer.
Gold Coast
So even was the year 2023 that Gold Coast only dropped 1 extra game compared to 2022 but it saw them drop 3 places on the ladder to fall to 15th.
For a team who kicks the ball 65% of the time they have it in possession, only ranked behind Brisbane with 65.4%, and also ranked 2nd for metres gained per disposal, you wouldn't expect to see only 51.8 inside 50s a game, ranked 13th.
Theres a major breakdown somewhere.
Was it that their game was too contested?
41.9% of their possession is contested, number one in the league.
Is that then affecting their disposal effectiveness?
It's the worst in the league.
Maybe their game has to get a little bit "cleaner"
Turning the ball over every 4.9 disposals is the worst in the competition.
Is the "dirty" ball that's going inside 50 asking too much of their forwards?
Marks per inside 50 has them the 3rd worst.
GWS
Here's the third biggest offensive scoring improvement from 2023.
13.6 points more a game offensively.
Its too simple to say they won 7 more games compared to 2022, remember there's an extra game in 23'
It's about how they changed and improved their method that got them the extra wins.
The 3rd best rebound 50 team from their own defence started it and then the bonus to go with that was that they were the 3rd best scoring team from that area.
Their ball movement was warm early and as the year went on, it got hotter and hotter.
In 2022 they only rebounded 1 less a game than in 2023, but this time around they were able to gain almost 600 metres more per game.
Their marks per inside 50 was more effective and that in turn improved their shots per inside 50, going from 17th to 9th.
GWS' defensive set up will be interesting in 2024.
They were clearly number 1 for the most 1 on 1s in their defensive half.
They also gave up 54.7 inside 50s, the 5th most in the competition, worst of all the finalists.
Even though Sam Taylor was able to stand up in defence with 3.8 intercept marks a game, equal second of all players, if teams are able to halt their ball movement, things may get tougher.
Part 2.
Hawthorn to the Western Bulldogs coming soon
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