Blues vs Bombers Preview

Finals like experience.

The arch-enemy on the big stage is this week’s opponent, offering a valuable opportunity for another likely young Essendon lineup to experience a finals-type atmosphere, something that will be invaluable for their development over the term.

After a slow start last week — a very slow start — the Bombers were able to bring both the attacking and defensive aspects of their game together to challenge the Lions at their den.

Off the back of that performance, they should be looking to carry the momentum into this week against a refreshed Carlton side, who’ll be expecting nothing less.

Last year.

If there was one game that summed up Essendon’s 2024 season, it was the Round 13 clash against Carlton. On King’s Birthday Eve, the inefficiency, both with and without the ball, that had been building week to week finally reached its peak.

That night, the Bombers generated 60 inside 50s for just 25 shots on goal, with a wasteful accuracy rate of 36%. Carlton, meanwhile, didn’t need nearly as many looks, 41 entries in total, but were able to convert them into 21 shots with 71% accuracy.

Essendon’s forward press did a great job of slowing Carlton’s ball movement from the back half, but when the Blues broke through, it went straight onto the scoreboard, and for maximum damage. The Bombers’ inability to defend their defensive 50 only made efficiency going the other way even more crucial. But that was just as frustrating. Of the 72 intercepts for the game, 34 came in the middle of the ground, yet they only led to four shots on goal, returning just one goal and three behinds.

Honestly, I don’t want to waste any more time on that performance. Let’s move on.

This year.

As always, there are reference points, both recent and earlier in the season, that give us, as Essendon fans, something to look for, and more importantly, something the coaches upstairs and the players on the park should be taking into this week.

The stoppage contest.

What we want to see first is a follow-up to the stoppage effort and overall showing from last week, against a side that’s been rated in the top echelon across most measures. The Essendon midfield was up to the challenge against a star-studded Brisbane outfit, and this week will demand at least that same level of effort and execution against a side that leans heavily on its on-ball mix.

Going into last week, Essendon had a -18 differential in pre-clearance contested possessions across their previous five games, but were able to turn that recent form around, winning the count by five. This showed immediately in their ability to take the ball from inside to outside, turning those first possessions into effective clearances almost 77% of the time, their best rate in the last four games. Now they need to go head-to-head against the number one ranked team at getting first hands on that contested ball.

The Blues have an average differential of +8.18 at pre-clearance, largely due to having four players ranked inside the top 30, Cripps, De Koning, Hewett, and Cerra. The Bombers can’t afford to rely solely on Caldwell, Durham, Setterfield, Martin, Merrett, and Goldstein to win those contests; just as crucial will be making sure Carlton’s midfield can’t turn those into clearances.

Surprisingly, despite their ball-winning ability, Carlton ranks 6th in total clearances, one spot below Essendon over the season. Where they hold a slight edge, though, is in what happens once their opposition exits stoppage.

No team is better at preventing opposition clearances from turning into shots on goal than Carlton. Their opponents convert just 21%, ranking them ahead of Collingwood, Brisbane, and Adelaide in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. But will the stoppage game really prove decisive on the scoreboard? Because Essendon isn’t far behind, 5th best at shutting down clearances before they become shots.

While any slight edge in scores from stoppages will be welcomed, based on the numbers coming into this game, the biggest factor for success will be scoring from intercept.

The turnover contest.

Both teams find themselves in the bottom eight of the ladder, largely due to being below average, poor really, at punishing their opponents in the turnover game.

They average fewer than 12 shots at goal from opposition turnovers, with Essendon converting just 18.3% of those opportunities into shots,15th in the competition, and Carlton slightly lower at 17.8%, ranked 17th. That adds up to just over 40 points a game for Essendon, and a little over 42 for Carlton. An improvement here would help the Bombers, but the bigger concern is what happens when the ball goes the other way.

Ranking 17th in any metric is poor, and there aren’t many worse than opposition points from turnovers. Only West Coast concedes more, with Essendon giving up 53.5 points a game, and over 21% of their turnovers ending in a shot at goal.

While last week’s overall effort was meritorious, 13 of Brisbane’s 16 shots at goal up until half time came from turnovers, with Essendon getting lucky in the second quarter as the Lions kicked one goal and six behinds from those opportunities.

Carlton, on the other hand, allow only 18.9% of their turnovers to become shots, ranked behind just five teams, all inside the top eight on the ladder, with four of those sitting in the top four.

That part of their game held up early on, but in the last four games, holes have begun to appear, something Essendon will want to keep exploiting.

In three of their last four games, they’ve given up 17, then 16, and most recently 18 shots from turnovers. In their last game before the bye, they conceded 83 of GWS’s 110 points this way, proving they can be vulnerable, which is more than enough motivation for Essendon.

The ball movement contest.

If Essendon wants to get more value from its turnover game, the disruption needs to start earlier, well before the opposition’s possession chains reach defensive 50.

Essendon is averaging just over 33 points per game from front-half possession chains, with only Richmond averaging less from that area of the ground. The clearance work is being done, territory is being gained, but it needs to be held, not handed back as easily as it has been.

Allowing an uncontested mark every 3.94 disposals (the lowest rate in 2025) is a major factor in why Essendon ranks as the worst team at defending ball movement from its own forward 50 to defensive 50. Nearly 30% of opposition chains are moving through the middle unbroken, and it’s a big reason why the Bombers are giving up over 53 inside 50s per game, the 8th most to this point.

While Essendon is the worst team at defending ball movement from end to end, Carlton is the second best at moving it the other way, with only the Western Bulldogs more effective.

There’s a perception that the Blues play a purely contested style, and to some extent, that’s true, they have the highest percentage of possessions won in contest. However, when they have the ball, they don’t rely on run, carry, and handball receives. Instead, they favour kick-mark control, recording the seventh-fewest disposals per uncontested mark as they build their way up the ground. This should be considered an advantage for the Bombers.

With a backline decimated through injury, the midfield and forwards have to step up in the front two-thirds and defend more consistently, starting with not allowing an easy outlet to control tempo. Carlton’s foot skills can be tested if the space is closed around both the kicker and, just as importantly, the target. They’ve got the second-worst kicking efficiency in the competition, which gives Essendon a chance to intercept more and improve two areas of the game.

The back 50 contest.

The biggest concern matchup-wise is Essendon’s defence against Carlton’s forwards, with the lack of height the main issue. And without the support from ahead of the ball just mentioned, that job gets significantly harder.

Carlton average the most one-on-one contests in their forward half, with Curnow averaging the most of any player in the competition, and McKay second in their lineup, though his numbers have been affected by being called up as the second ruck in most games.

The Blues’ opposition so far have been able to disrupt their ability to find marking targets inside 50 through pressure coming from the midfield. That’s affected their kicking skills, which in turn has lowered the quality of their entries. As a result, they rank 18th for turning an inside 50 into a scoring shot.

At the other end, one of Essendon’s biggest issues has been quantity, especially since Round 8.

The forward 50 contest.

When they do go inside 50, only Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Melbourne find a marking target at a better rate per entry. The problem is that Essendon have only gone inside just over 44 times per game, clearly the lowest amount in that period.

While some more urgency with ball in hand would help, it needs to be understood that when you’re giving up over 55 inside 50s a game (15th most), and defending almost 53% of those from turning into scores (6th best), you’re bound to start possession chains much further from goal, which naturally means safer, more cautious methods need to be used in transition.

No better example than last week’s first half versus second half against Brisbane, where Essendon could only intercept the Lions every 9.65 possessions. That forced them to rely much more heavily on winning clearances to generate entries, resulting in just 18 inside 50s while Brisbane went in 34 times.

In the second half, Essendon added the intercept game to their clearance work, winning the ball back every 5.32 possessions. This helped them get inside forward 50 25 times and also restricted Brisbane to 27. Interrupting the opposition more regularly will inevitably create additional opportunities.

Short sharp notes.

Essendon averages the most handball receives per game in the league, ahead of the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, and GWS, with over 32 more per game than Carlton, who sit 12th in this category.

Carlton have won just three of 11 third quarters and four of 11 final quarters this season, with a total second-half goal differential of -13.

Only the Western Bulldogs average more forward 50 groundball gets per game than Carlton, a clear concern for Essendon, given they allowed 26 to the Dogs just three weeks ago.

In the end…

Yes, Carlton’s four wins from 11 games is a seriously disappointing return for a side that would’ve — and probably should’ve — come into the year with higher aspirations. Not that we care as Essendon supporters, of course. But as you’ve just read, there are plenty of areas in their game that, based on Essendon’s form this season, will be a real concern.

At the same time, this is a game that sits right in front of Essendon. With a young lineup facing a tough opponent on the big stage, it doesn’t need to be perfect, just consistent enough across the night to keep asking the question.

Staying in the moments longer will give them the chance to shape the game on their terms, and if they take their chances when they come, the win will be there for the taking. Tests like this are exactly what the young group needs, valuable experience that will help their development throughout the season.

Go Bombers!