Bombers vs Blues Preview

In front of the home crowd for the last time.

Back to the MCG for the last home game of 2025, and if there’s one team the Essendon army of supporters would love to beat at the home of football, it’s the old dark navy blues.

The Bombers will look back on this as a frustrating season for different reasons, and now the rivalry offers one last chance to salvage pride against a much-hated enemy.

Earlier this year.

In Round 13, it was another slow start that proved costly for Essendon, conceding 10 scoring shots to just two by quarter time against the old rival. Despite fighting back across the remaining three quarters, the damage was done early, and they were left chasing what could’ve been.

What hurt most in the first quarter came from stoppage, not through dominance or field position, but through sheer efficiency.

Both sides won 11 clearances to the first break, but Carlton turned five of theirs into scoring shots, while Essendon couldn’t register a single score from any of theirs.

Heading into the game, the Bombers had been defending stoppage losses at the fifth-best rate in the league (23.16%), so conceding scores from 45.45% of those losses was a particularly disappointing beginning.

Injury-hit but stubborn, Essendon fought back admirably, clawing their way into the contest through run, spread, and handball. Their speed of ball movement forced Carlton to lift their tackle pressure, but once the Bombers found space on the outside, they looked the more dangerous side and sent a genuine scare through a more experienced, more settled opponent. If only they had jumped out of the blocks quicker.

This time.

That first-quarter story has been a familiar one for Essendon this season, winning only four opening terms before last week’s 11-point margin against St Kilda. It’s a habit that can’t afford to continue against Carlton, a side that has led at the first change in 14 of their 22 games, and just like the last meeting, this game will start at the coal face at stoppages.

When the game is stopped.

Since the last matchup 10 games ago, the Blues have won the clearance battle six times for a +37 differential, while the Bombers, across their nine games since King’s Birthday Eve, have only come out on top in three, with a -48 differential. A big lift is going to be needed if they’re to get the ball moving in the right direction initially.

Carlton are the number one side in the competition at winning contests pre-clearance, and that strength was on show again last week against Port Adelaide, where they finished with a +11 differential. It allowed them to move the ball from inside to out and get reward on the scoreboard, with just under 30% of their clearances ending in shots, a rate only the Western Bulldogs have been able to maintain across the season.

Despite the issues Essendon have faced this year, preventing stoppage losses from resulting in a score has remained a strength. They enter this game with the sixth-best rate, with four of the five teams above them, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Geelong, all sitting in the top five on the ladder.

The Bombers should take some confidence from the last meeting, where despite losing pre-clearance contests by four across the second and third quarters, they were still able to win total clearances by nine in that stretch, with none of Carlton’s 16 clearances translating to a score.

When the game is in motion.

Getting the inside right will be important, but it’s on the outside where Essendon need to make the biggest improvement, both with the ball and without it.

Once the ball is in the opposition’s hands, the Bombers have struggled the most this year defending transition, with conceding uncontested marks being the biggest factor, a lesson made clear when they met in Round 13.

Carlton’s opponents have typically restricted them to just under 20 uncontested marks per quarter to slow their ball movement, but in that 10-scoring-shot, six-goal opening term against Essendon, they were afforded 31, with 24 of them in the back two-thirds of the ground. This contributed to Carlton transitioning nearly 500 metres more than Essendon, with over 28% of possession chains starting in defensive 50 ending up inside 50.

I had expected the coaches’ message at the first break to be clear and direct, and Essendon responded accordingly, lifting their work rate by quickly relocating opponents after a turnover, and closing down space around the perimeter whenever Carlton tried to move the ball out of congestion. These changes improved Essendon’s intercept frequency from one every 6.4 possessions to one every 3.5, testing Carlton’s ability to defend those turnovers.

Punishing when the game is in motion.

This year, the Bombers have averaged just 38 points from opposition turnovers a game, only ranked above North Melbourne and Richmond, and well below the AFL average of just under 47 points. On only seven occasions have they exceeded that average, with the 51 points against Carlton earlier in the year their fifth-best return. That should be enough motivation to first generate more of these opportunities, and then be aggressive with ball in hand.

Keep the game in motion.

It’s a one-paced Carlton lineup in most parts of the ground, particularly in the middle, which Essendon was able to expose the longer the game went on last time. They once again need to be unafraid to run, run, and run to stretch Carlton’s vulnerability in leg speed.

Making the game a high-transition contest is risky for the Bombers, as their ability to defend the other way has long been an issue, but this week their mentality must focus on testing the Blues’ weaknesses rather than worrying about their own.

Handball mode isn’t Carlton’s default, as their preference is to use their kicking skills instead.

Just over 40% of their disposals have come from hands, the 7th least of all teams, while their opponents have averaged the 5th most against them, setting up to exploit the Blues’ inability to spread and chase.

I’ve mentioned on more than a few occasions this season the changes in Essendon’s game plan, and a lot of those times I’ve pointed out how it’s leaned too heavily on handball, the imbalance inviting opposition pressure at the source and increasing the risk of turnovers.

This week, it’ll be worth seeing if the Bombers can test the Blues’ capability in getting from contest to contest consistently.

The man in motion.

Sam Walsh holds the biggest key to Carlton’s success this week, just as he did last week against Port Adelaide.

Returning after missing nine games through injury, Walsh was immediately able to impact on the outside with 14 handball receives in a lineup that this season has only averaged 113 a game, ranked 11th, and of his 29 possessions, 19 were uncontested, well above his season average across the last three years.

After Essendon clawed their way back with seven goals to three across the middle quarters in the last matchup, it was Walsh’s work around the ground that helped Carlton hold on in the final term.

He opened the game with nine possessions in the first 20 minutes, six of those part of scoring chains, while gaining 140 metres for his side. Through quarters two and three, as Essendon mounted its comeback, he was limited to 10 possessions and 121 metres. But when the game was on the line, after Essendon had taken control at stoppage 25–16 across the middle 40 minutes, his last quarter became a major factor in Carlton turning it back their way.

He finished with 11 possessions, 144 metres gained and five handball receives, aiding both their stoppage dominance (+10) and their ability to run from contests.

The man who can stop the man in motion.

Seeing Andrew McGrath come out after half time and start in the centre square against GWS in round 19 was certainly a surprise to most, I would guess, but with Tom Green dominating the first half and midfield rotations limited, we should at least acknowledge the coaches’ decision to try something different on the night.

Since then McGrath has been able to step up and fill in this role (though I don’t see him long term returning to the midfield once the full complement is available), with his most influential game coming last week when he spent large minutes on Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, the sixth-highest ranked player based on AFL Player Ratings since round 19.

This week he needs to be tasked with limiting Walsh’s influence on the outside, while allowing Zach Merrett and Sam Durham to stand up against Patrick Cripps and George Hewett, Carlton’s top two for pre-clearance contested possessions and total clearances.

Short sharp notes.

As mentioned earlier, Essendon rank sixth for denying an opponent’s clearance from ending in a scoring shot, while the highest-ranked team outside the finalists, sitting in fifth, is Carlton.

While Carlton have been quick out of the blocks in first quarters, their third terms have been the opposite, winning only four and averaging just under a 10-point differential over that 20-minute stretch.

Hewett leads the Blues in average possessions and ranks seventh in the competition for players who have played five or more games. Of the top 25 ball winners, 47% of his possessions are contested, the fifth-highest rate behind Matt Rowell, Caleb Serong, Jack McRae and Tom Green.

Last year, Carlton was the most efficient team at turning an inside 50 into a shot at goal, converting better than one in four entries. This year, however, they are second-worst, only ahead of Essendon.

The last two times these teams have met, Tom De Koning has collected the maximum 20 coaches votes, with last year’s performance his second-highest rated game of his career, and this year’s his seventh-highest for the season. On both occasions, Todd Goldstein had to go head-to-head with him, and with an already weakened midfield underneath, Goldstein will need to have a much bigger impact in limiting the Blues’ number one ruck.

Of the top 10 forwards for one-on-one contests over the last five games, Peter Wright is averaging the seventh-most, winning just under one in every two. Only the Bulldogs Sam Darcy has a better win rate over this period.

Conclusion.

This is a game that sits right in front of Essendon’s young lineup, against a team that had higher expectations and has ultimately underachieved this season.

It doesn’t have to be perfect, as few things have been this year, but if Essendon can get off to a solid start, stay in moments a bit longer, keep asking questions of Carlton’s setup like they did last week, and take their opportunities when they come, a win on the big stage is absolutely achievable.

Go Bombers!