The job ahead.
Last week began Essendon’s four-game run against opponents who prioritise contested football over uncontested, and now they match up against Carlton, number four for this metric.
While there is a week's break after this game, it presents an opportunity to solidify their position in the competition with a statement against their arch-enemy.
Last time we met.
For me, the best 20 minutes of football that Essendon played last year was in this exact matchup against Carlton in round 13.
This may be surprising to some, but it wasn't the third quarter. Yes, Essendon kicked seven goals to two in that quarter and dominated their old enemy at clearance with four goals from turnovers and centre clearance domination.
While that was the most fun 20 minutes of 2023, the best was actually the first quarter, which set the tone for what was to come later.
Essendon applied 23 of their 64 tackles in the first quarter, and 12 of their 19 tackles inside 50 for the night happened in that same period. Additionally, 61 of their 112 contested possessions for the game occurred in that same quarter.
The better team may not see immediate rewards on the scoreboard, but persistence will eventually pay off. This mentality will be crucial in this week’s performance.
Their recent form.
In Carlton's last eight games, six of their opponents were in the top eight of the ladder at the time, with two of them occupying the top spot when those games were played.
In three out of four loses, the average losing margin was seven points, with the only blowout being against Sydney in Sydney by 52 points in round 10.
The attack hasn’t been their issue during this period, it’s been the defensive side that has let the team down.
Putting it on the scoreboard.
The Preliminary Finalists of 2023 currently have the 5th worst scores against; last season, they had the fourth fewest in this metric.
Opposition inside 50 entries for 2024 stand at 52.3, 8th worst, with over 23.3% of those entries turning into marks in the back third, the 6th worst, and 47.7% ending in a shot at goal, once again, the 6th worst.
This is a major drop compared to 2023, when Carlton had the best rate of stopping entries from becoming shots on goal.
In one-on-one contests in the back half, Carlton's defenders are holding their own, but the major issue stems from further up the ground and what happens when the game opens up.
The Blues sit with the bottom five teams in conceding scores from transitions that begin in their own front half. On average, over 35 points per game start from there, highlighting their inability to stop the ball's speed once it leaves the front third.
This is a vulnerability Essendon should look to exploit this week. In 2023, over 36% of Essendon’s possession chains began in the back 50, but this year, their defensive methodology has shifted. While last year they defended with structure behind the ball, this year they focus more on pressure at the source while maintaining some structure behind the play. Because of this shift, the ball no longer enters their defensive third as frequently.
Opposition inside 50s have decreased from 55.8 to 50.8 so possession chain starting positions are now much closer to goal on a regular basis. Just over 32% of those chains begin in the defensive 50. In 2024, the Bombers are averaging just over 32 points from possession chains starting in the defensive half, currently sitting just above the AFL average. Maintaining this rate against Carlton will make transitions from defence to offence much more challenging for the Blues to defend.
The defensive battle.
As I wrote earlier, the Blues' offensive side of the game hasn’t been the struggle in the last eight games; average scores during this period are 93.7, with the lowest point being in the loss to Sydney, where they managed only 65 points.
Don't be fooled into thinking it’s just a two-pronged attack up forward with Curnow and McKay.
While last year that was the case, averaging only 7.1 goal scorers per game (the fourth fewest), this year they rank the 3rd most with 8.4. Curnow and McKay lead the list, but there are another eight players who have kicked six or more goals this year. Midfielders Cripps, Kennedy, Acres and Elijah Hollands, with small pressure forwards like Owies and Williams, have all contributed to this uptick.
This variety of goal-scoring options presents some matchup headaches for Essendon. Cripps' goal-scoring improvements come from spending more time in the forward 50 rather than sneaking forward from the midfield. His matchup needs someone with size who is also proficient and aware at stoppages inside Essendon’s defensive 50, and alert to Cripps' work in set plays.
Hollands, and Acres operate from the wing or half-forward, using their work rate to get into space inside the front third.
With number one winger Duursma still unavailable, covering these roles requires experienced players with endurance and aerial abilities. Cox and Heppell are the best matchups here.
Kelly and McGrath are assigned the weekly role of containing the opponents' small brigade, but they must be aware of the pressure these smalls provide.
This season, Carlton ranks 2nd for tackles inside 50, averaging 13.8 a game.
That leaves the tall targets to match up. Expect the McKay twins to go against each other, with Laverde and Ridley as options for Curnow. Preferably, Ridley should be free of this matchup, allowing him to position himself best to help his fellow defenders. However, Kennedy's top priority when he’s been forward is to neutralise the intercepting defender, making him a logical choice to prevent an in-form Ridley from becoming the plus one in the air.
If Essendon has the territory advantage, having the Bombers' ruckman standing a kick behind the play will force either McKay or Curnow to come further up the ground, allowing Ridley to stand another kick away from that contest. If Carlton has the territory, a half-forward should roll further up the ground to challenge the Carlton wings, allowing Cox and Heppell to drop back and free up Ridley from his matchup.
Rebounding.
The Blues' rebound from the defensive half is a mixture of run-and-carry and foot skills.
Both Saad and Boyd provide the run-and-carry by looking to receive handballs and get the ball moving at speed, with Saad their number one defender for running bounces, showing his prowess. Meanwhile, McGovern, Weitering, Newman, Kemp, and Cincotta rely on kicking to move it.
Newman and McGovern are in Carlton’s top four for metres gained, meaning territory gain is their number one priority.
Essendon, however, has matchups to halt this rebound and force Carlton to adjust their defensive setup.
Gresham is an ideal choice to challenge Saad, as his ability to find space in congestion and his leg speed can present a challenge.
Guelfi can continue his role play of this season against Newman, applying pressure on one of Carlton's key players.
Two weeks ago, the Blues faced Gold Coast, an opponent familiar to the Bombers, and their rebound effectiveness was at its peak.
Of the team's 27 shots at goal, 15 began in the back half, contributing 75 of their 102 points, with Newman playing a key role.
Newman is averaging the most rebound 50s for Carlton, with almost 75% of his possessions being uncontested. Outside of the two rucks, who typically initiate scoring, he is the equal number one Blue for starting scoring chains with Cripps.
Guelfi’s role, similar to his task against GWS’ Whitfield, is to limit Newman’s free space to prevent him from easily receiving possessions and thus reduce his efficiency with ball. Simultaneously, Guelfi should act as a lead-up option for his Essendon teammates. forcing Newman to manage both defensive and offensive responsibilities.
Midfield versus midfield.
Written in bold is: Must tag Walsh.
No better example of these three words than Carlton versus Sydney in round 10, where Jordan was assigned to stay right beside Walsh at all times. He nullified his influence, limiting him to 20 disposals for the night and only 359 metres gained, a drop from his average of 31.6 disposals and over 460 metres gained. Excluding his injury in round 19 last year, Walsh’s 20 disposals are his lowest since round 14, 2021, a game Carlton lost by six goals.
In the first quarter, Carlton kicked five goals to three, with Walsh having seven disposals. In the next two quarters, where Sydney scored 11 goals and had 17 shots at goal while Carlton managed only two goals, he was restricted to seven disposals. His four score involvements were below his 2024 average of 7.4. He is a major reason why Carlton averages 39 points from stoppages and is ranked number two.
Jordan’s effectiveness was so instrumental that Walsh attended only 50% of centre bounces, down from his season average of over 68%. Walsh is the key in a midfield mix that is otherwise very one-paced and lacks variety.
Is Caldwell the player to sacrifice his individual game for the team’s benefit? I think he is.
While Walsh is the player in Essendon’s sights, Merrett will be in Carlton’s. The skipper has been a consistent force in a midfield that has faced injuries testing its depth and form testing its consistency. Merrett’s season average of 29.3 disposals places him in the top nine players for 2024. Among these players, only Walsh and Nick Daicos have a higher strike rate of disposals leading to scores, with Merrett's eight goals being the second most in that top nine. His expected shadow for the night is Hewett, who has performed similar roles for Carlton.
The Bombers’ early-season clearance advantage has diminished recently, and it is crucial they regain this edge. After round seven, the Bombers were +5.57 in clearance differential against their opponents, ranked equal third at that time. Over the last five games, that has dropped to -4.4, now ranked 17th. Carlton, traditionally strong in this area, has maintained their advantage. In the same five-game stretch, the Blues are +1.6 against their opponents.
In last week's game against Port Adelaide, it became evident.
After trailing in clearances by seven at halftime, the Blues turned it around in the second half, winning the clearances by nine and maximizing that advantage on the scoreboard. In the last quarter, they were +7 with eight of the 15 clearances in that 20-minute period resulting in shots at goal, leading to seven goals and one point.
Full game awareness required here.
Do I really need to detail Cripps and his abilities in contest situations and clearances? Once again, he ranks in the top five for centre clearances and top 20 for around-the-ground clearances, with two unexpected allies.
McKay has spent time in the centre square as De Koning’s relief ruck and is second for clearances per centre bounce attendance, covering for Pittonet when he’s unavailable. When Pittonet has played his six games, he’s the number 11th ranked player for centre clearances in the competition.
Between the two teams, the depth in clearances shows Carlton’s strength. They have the top four players for clearance averages, ranging from 7.3 to 5.5, before the Bombers' best in Merrett with 4.9 down to Perkins with 3.2. Even a slight improvement from all players here will significantly impact other areas of the game, time to get back to hunting, both the ball and player.
The experience.
I've mentioned multiple times that this is a critical period for Essendon. It's not just about one individual game presenting a big challenge; it's about the week-after-week ability to sustain this new contested style the team is favoring.
Experiencing this game style on the expanses of the M.C.G. in four of the next five games, all against experienced teams, can accelerate development heading into the final third of the regular season.
Go Dons!
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