Bombers vs Bulldogs Preview

The motivation.

It’s hard not to be counting down the games remaining in Essendon’s 2025 season. The second half of the year has turned into a weekly grind, where the scoreboard feels secondary and the focus has shifted to how the club’s younger players are performing and progressing. That continues this week, though there’s still a sense of unease heading into this one, not just because of where Essendon sits, but because of how the first meeting with the Bulldogs played out, with a near full-strength side on the park.

A recap.

It was only nine games ago, but the horror show Essendon fans sat through on May 17th still feels too fresh to revisit in full. So, I’ll keep this as close to a summary as possible, without dragging everyone back through all the gory detail.

While Essendon’s form leading into the game looked promising on the surface, there had been persistent warning signs, particularly around stoppages, that I’d flagged across the preceding weeks. Those issues had largely been masked by the work of the defenders b

From rounds 5 through to this clash, the Bombers had only won the clearance count once, against West Coast. and went -35 in pre-clearance contested possessions across that stretch, ranked 16th in the competition. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, sat third.

Despite those numbers, Essendon had managed to hold firm defensively, conceding just 25 points per game from stoppages across the previous five matches — largely thanks to their post-clearance work behind the ball. But how long could they afford to lose territory at stoppage, hold up against opposition entries, rely on the backline to win it back, transition from so deep, avoid turnovers — and still defend the ones they did make?

Unlike recent opponents, the Bulldogs are a different beast, a side with its game in order: strong at the contest, clean, and experienced.

First they win the hardball. Then they feed the outside, where Essendon couldn’t lay a glove on them, just 19 effective tackles in the first half.

Few teams punish a lack of pressure like the Bulldogs. With little resistance on the spread, they linked up with 213 handball receives, many to players in full motion and facing goal, forcing Essendon’s defenders to just hold up at a minimum, as 61 entries entered the back 50, the equal-third most the Bombers have conceded since the start of 2024.

This week.

Being such a short time between battles, the concerns from that game absolutely carry on into this one, as the Bulldogs continue to be the number one team at stoppage, helped in large part by being the best side at getting their hands on the ball first and turning that into a clearance, with the leading hardball winner at ground level in the competition in Tom Liberatore the usual suspect.

The Essendon midfield got a good look at what that type of asset does to a side last week, as Tom Green dominated his three matchups across the night — the Giants midfielder sitting second in the competition in this metric, behind only Liberatore.

While it may be a job too big to contain without the usual depth in the Bomber midfield, it’s his assistants on the outside that may be a more manageable task to contain around the stoppage bubble.

The Liberatore and Ed Richards combination is the Dogs’ number one exit pairing from restarts, and this week shapes as an opportunity for an Essendon mid to step up to the challenge of running with Richards, while also learning on the job what work rate looks like around the ground, as well as positioning at stoppages by following the number one ranked player in the competition based on AFL Player Ratings.

Is this a job Archie Perkins could be assigned? If there’s an Essendon player in my view that needs more knowledge on what being active at stop plays looks like. and then in turn, getting from that contest to the next, or following up as multiple links in a possession chain, then it’s Perkins.

Nullifying a Dogs midfield built on multiple rotations is an enormous ask, and that’s why no team this year averages more points from clearance wins than the Bulldogs — just under 50 points a game from this score source, and more than eight points clear of second-placed Geelong. There’s a gap to bridge for the Bombers, who concede just under 33 points a game from stoppages, and I’d say anywhere near that result this week would be seen as a positive.

The Dogs last line.

This is the biggest vulnerability in the Western Bulldogs’ game, and another area where the Essendon forwards should see opportunity as added motivation.

The Western Bulldogs have the seventh-least one-on-one contests in their defensive half, with only Brisbane and Fremantle averaging fewer per game among teams higher on the ladder. But no team loses more of those contests than the Bulldogs, and across the last five games, they’ve lost just under 50% of them, almost 8% more than the second-worst side in St Kilda.

Of the defenders under the pump, key backs James O’Donnell and the returning Liam Jones are losing two out of every three. Rory Lobb is being outpointed just under half the time, while flankers like Jason Johannisen and Nick Coffield are also being beaten in over 60% of their contests.

If Essendon can generate separation in the front half, especially through quick ball movement to open up space, they can isolate these defenders “on an island.” If that happens, the Bombers’ forwards are entitled to back themselves in those matchups.

Masking the problems.

Because of their ball-winning strength and firepower ahead of the ball, the Bulldogs concede the fewest inside 50s of any side, ahead of Collingwood, Melbourne, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Hawthorn. But while the ball doesn’t enter their back third often, when it does, they can be punished in multiple ways.

The Dogs have allowed 12 marks inside 50 per game to this point, the seventh most in the competition, and they concede them at the fifth-highest rate per entry. Of the sides who allow fewer entries than the Dogs, only Melbourne gives up a mark at a worse rate.

Consider that Essendon went inside 50 just 37 times when these sides last met — but found a marking target on over 24% of those occasions. Sustained over a season, that efficiency would currently rank fifth in the league.

And once it’s in there, there’s every chance it’s hitting the scoreboard.

Only North Melbourne and West Coast concede a shot at goal per entry more often than the Bulldogs, and only five sides allow those shots to convert into goals at a higher rate.

Essendon will need to improve their aerial presence, currently ranked below the league average for marks inside 50 per entry. But another small lift in that area, paired with pressure at ground level, can force the Bulldogs to scramble.

Up high and down low.

Since Round 15, the Dogs are ranked last in the league for defending groundball in defensive 50, with their last five opponents applying the fifth-most tackles in that zone.

The benefits of this are two-fold this week.

Out it goes.

No team has been easier to move the ball against from end to end than Essendon in 2025.

Of the opposition’s 37.5 possession chains that start in their defensive 50, 28% end in a forward 50 entry, the worst rate in the league. It doesn’t bode well against this week’s opponents, who are ranked second for going coast to coast, only narrowly behind Geelong.

Bombers fans will remember this problem surfacing in round 10, where the Bulldogs transitioned from defensive to forward 50 on just under 40% of chains, the fourth-worst rate Essendon has allowed this year.

The other thing that couldn’t go unnoticed was the 49 disposals Bailey Dale had on the night, with 28 of those between the arcs, as he was allowed to run free far too often, only forced to earn three possessions contested.

I highlighted his potential influence in the round 10 preview, and little has changed since. He’s still the number one ranked defender for launching scoring chains from the back half, ahead of Tom Stewart and Dane Zorko.

There can be no excuse for letting him dictate again.

Exam time.

I see this week as a learning opportunity for a young, inexperienced Essendon lineup, one where the benefits might not be obvious right away, but will become clearer over time. Just like my earlier suggestion of learning positioning and work rate against Richards, I think a similar concept applies with Bailey Dale. And for this, I’ve got a matchup in mind that might seem a little unconventional.

Looking ahead, I see Angus Clarke developing into a rebounding defender who can use his kicking, leg speed, endurance, and intent to take the game on as key assets in Essendon’s ball movement. And while it might seem unusual to place him in the front half this week, this as the perfect chance to “get the pen and paper out” and learn from a player who’s mastered his role.

Timing your movement is critical as a rebounder, and it all starts with positioning. This is a free lesson for the 18-year-old, and it comes with the added benefit of potentially limiting Dale’s impact with ball in hand, which would be a big help to his teammates.

Pride.

In the last matchup, the Western Bulldogs won 28 forward 50 groundballs — the most Essendon has conceded in the past two seasons. Leading the charge was Rhylee West, the competition’s top forward 50 groundball winner. His scoreboard impact was undeniable: nine of his possessions came inside the arc, resulting in four goals and another seven score involvements, including four intercepts.

That sets the challenge this week for Archie Roberts, a player who thrives on the contest and will be looking to tick off a big box against one of the premier small forwards of 2025.

Short sharp notes.

The Bombers need to create more looks in their front third than their season average of 47.5 inside 50s, which ranks ahead of only North Melbourne and Richmond.

Coming up against the number one side for points from stoppage is already a huge ask. It’s compounded by the fact that Essendon has generated just six shots on goal from stoppages in the past two games, a return of less than 10% of clearances ending in a shot,

the lowest two-game return the club has recorded from this score source.

Of all forwards to have played the last five games, Isaac Kako ranks 10th in the league for intercepts that start scoring chains for his team.

Denying uncontested marks will be critical. In the four games this year where the Bulldogs have taken 99 or more, they’ve won all four — by an average of 78.2 points.

Last week against GWS was Essendon’s most efficient game of the season in converting a defensive 50 rebound into a score.

There’s a reason why the Bulldogs currently sit 9th on the ladder, they’ve beaten just one team above them from nine attempts, but haven’t dropped a single game to any team below.

All up.

Nine games later, a very different Essendon lineup is set to face the “bullies” of the competition.

Down back, McKay and Reid are out. From the midfield mix, Martin, Caldwell, and Setterfield are unavailable, while Langford’s absence brings the total to at least six changes from the round 10 side.

But with those changes comes opportunity. The replacements — mostly first-year players and mid-season draftees — have a chance to show, say, and prove something different compared to the disappointing performance earlier in the year.

What I’m hoping to see this week is jobs assigned, just like the examples I wrote about, with the ultimate goal being the feedback players provide on what they noticed and learnt, and how they can carry that forward to improve their own game against a mature opponent that’s confident and experienced in how they play.

Go Bombers!