Bombers vs Crows Preview
- thebombersblog
- Mar 19
- 7 min read
If you’re anything like me, living and breathing football 365 days a year, you’re always on the lookout for great content beyond the mainstream media. If that’s the case, you’ve probably come across some outstanding work from Mateo Szlapek-Sewillo on his website, One Percenters. And if you haven’t yet, there’s no better time to check out his in-depth newsletters and subscribe.
Throughout last season and into this preseason, Mateo has covered every angle of the game, on-field tactics, off-field analytics, list management, and the broader community that makes football what it is.
While his heart lies with the Adelaide Crows, his insights span the entire competition. So, with Essendon set to face Adelaide this week, I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to get his perspective on the matchup. Thankfully, he was more than happy to share his thoughts.
For this preview, I asked Mateo to put on his Crows beanie and scarf and break down the game from an Adelaide supporter’s perspective. What does he make of the challenge ahead for his side against our Bombers?
Over to you, Mateo.
Last time we met.
The basic, highly stylised, pattern of the last meeting between these two sides was Essendon having the upper hand in contested possessions, converting that to territorial superiority – they went +7 for inside-50s – but ultimately losing the game because of their defensive lapses (both personnel and structure-related) and Adelaide’s clinical finishing.
I’m not convinced that’s a great template for how this game will go: both sides have welcomed important new personnel (whether returning and newly recruited) which will enhance the ways they’re able to play the game. That being said, it’s possible to discern some key themes.
In 2024, Adelaide’s clearance weakness forced them to begin with the ball in deep defensive positions and trust in their foot skills and running power to take them from back to front. Some of that was still in evidence in their first game of the new season against St Kilda.
The Crows scored 37 points from chains beginning in their defensive 50. Mitch Hinge, Josh Worrell, and Mark Keane’s drive and ability by foot (and the latter’s willingness to go off the line with his kicking) provide thrust out of the back line.
Scoring patterns.
Despite the deterioration in their overall scoring power last year, scoring from back-half chains remains Adelaide’s one-wood. They were 6th in the AFL for back-half scores in 2024 and second in the corresponding metric in 2023 (when they were the highest-scoring side overall).
Essendon fans have seen glimpses of what the Crows can do from deep in their defensive half (the Keane to Hinge to Fogarty coast-to-coast goal in Round 19 perhaps being the prime example), but generally speaking, Essendon’s forward press has been quite effective in denying Adelaide the opportunity to transition. It’s still something Brad Scott will need to be wary of, however: the Crows’ slingshot will be helped by the vast expanses of the MCG.
If, as expected, Adelaide’s midfield does a better job of holding its own in the contest, Matthew Nicks could deploy Jordan Dawson to different areas of the field depending on the state of the game.
In this game, I could see his intercept marking and kicking being a significant asset at half-back or even on a wing (where his size would make him a good match-up for Essendon’s tall wingers).
As Anth’s review of the Hawthorn game mentioned, Essendon gained the ascendancy in the third quarter when they were able to deny Hawthorn uncontested marks while simultaneously generating their own. Control vs. denial of control, in other words.
The Crows like denying opposition marks – for all their issues, they allowed the fourth-fewest marks in 2024. In general, they’re quite aggressive in their defensive positioning, trusting in the quality of their forward-half players as well as their ability to defend turnover.
Gettable.
I’m sure Matthew Nicks will be aware that Essendon were 15th for defending turnover last season, and have that as an area of focus in his planning for this game.
There were only 124 intercepts in the Round 19 meeting between these sides under the Marvel lid, compared to 153 in their Round 6 game at Adelaide Oval – and 142 intercepts in the Crows’ first game of 2025. There were just 123 intercepts in Essendon’s game against the Hawks.
Firepower.
I’ve just discussed some of the most important tactical elements of the game from an Adelaide perspective. However, in what shapes as a contest between two fairly evenly-matched sides, personnel matters.
The single biggest mismatch in this game will be the one between Essendon’s defence and Adelaide’s forward line. Based on their performance against St Kilda, and given the absence of Jordan Ridley and Zach Reid looking rusty in his first senior game for a year, the Crows will believe they can kick a winning score.
It’s not just the Adelaide tall forwards that Essendon will need to be wary of. Ben Keays had a career-best game last time these sides met, kicking five goals and setting up several others with his hard running and intense forward pressure. What was noticeable during that game – especially in the second quarter when the Crows piled on eight consecutive goals – was how successfully Keays and his fellow smalls/mediums were able to instill panic and force errors from Essendon defenders.
The Crows scored 78 points from chains originating in their forward half, more than twice their 2024 season average. It should also be said, however, that 51 points from defensive-half chains represented a good return for the Bombers.
Crows fans anxious about how a three-tall forward setup would affect their side’s ability to limit opposition rebound (I include myself in that group) would be heartened by two facts: the Crows scored 67 points from forward-half chains in Round 1, while at the same time allowing the second-lowest rebound 50 rate of any side. They might be too tall. But they weren’t on Sunday.
The additions of Izak Rankine and Alex Neal-Bullen, neither of whom featured in the last meeting between these two sides should also ensure the Crows are a dangerous proposition whenever the ball gets inside their forward 50.
The other end.
The other contest I’ll have my eye on is the one between Adelaide’s half-back line and Essendon’s half-forward line. Essendon effectively lost the game against Hawthorn at half-forward. Ben Hobbs, Nic Martin and Archie Perkins couldn’t quite stay close enough to the Hawks’ rebounding defenders in the first half, allowing them time and space to deliver precision passes inside 50.
The Hawks scored 50 points from their back half, and although the introduction of Jade Gresham significantly improved the Bombers’ forward pressure, it was too little, too late. Given Adelaide’s historic strength in this part of the game under Matthew Nicks, it looms as an area to watch.
KPIs
The most important thing to mention from an Adelaide perspective is that the Crows’ starting 22 will look quite different – and stronger – than it did the last time they faced the Bombers.
Fitness permitting, Izak Rankine, Taylor Walker, Josh Worrell, Matt Crouch, Wayne Milera, James Peatling, Alex Neal-Bullen, Isaac Cumming, and (most likely) Sid Draper will all feature at the MCG. The Crows have escaped the early season injury epidemic that’s ensnared many other sides and have a full list (a significantly stronger one than last season) to pick from.
The Crows have health on their side. They will also boast a new-look midfield. Last time these sides met, Rory Laird, Sam Berry and Zac Taylor all saw bulk centre bounce attendances. Laird has been moved permanently to the backline to help shore up Adelaide’s defensive 50 ground ball game, while Berry and Taylor are currently depth options.
Throughout pre-season and in Round 1, Matthew Nicks has opted for a fluid centre bounce rotation, with Matt Crouch the closest to a mainstay, supplemented by Dawson, Soligo, Peatling and Rankine. Ben Keays and Alex Neal-Bullen will often roll up to secondary and forward stoppages. Once a problem area, the Crows’ midfield suddenly looks like a potential area of strength – and a line that’s capable of matching it with the increasingly impressive Bombers engine room.
If Adelaide can halve the midfield battle, they will believe they hold the advantage at either end of the ground.
The matchups.
Based on the evidence of the six and a half games he played in 2024 following a serious knee injury, Riley Thilthorpe appears primed for a serious break-out this year. Despite adding significant size, he can run all day and pick the ball up from his shoelaces.
If the Crows can create one-on-ones ahead of the ball, he will pose significant problems for Ben McKay (especially without Jordan Ridley to float across and impact marking contests).
The midfield is Essendon’s area of strength and, for the last few seasons, has been Adelaide’s major weakness. Brad Scott’s persistence with Sam Durham and Jye Caldwell is paying off. The two young midfielders have formed a highly complementary core rotation with captain Zach Merrett, with Elijah Tsatas seeing midfield minutes early in the season.
The Bombers absolutely dominated Hawthorn in close, going +19 in clearances and +24 in contested possessions, which translated to territorial superiority. However, a combination of inefficient finishing and Hawthorn’s superiority in transition meant that didn’t translate to the scoreboard.
Merrett remains the star and the obvious danger man for the Crows. Last time these sides met, Adelaide sent second-gamer Hugh Bond directly to him. It sort of worked – but the Essendon captain still had 30 touches, kicked a goal, and could have won the game at the final centre bounce. Bond is unlikely to play on Saturday, and I’d be surprised if Matthew Nicks chose to apply another tag. He’s likely to rely on Peatling to apply sufficient pressure on the defensive side of stoppages.
A huge thank you to Mateo for sharing such insightful analysis and taking the time to give us Essendon fans a different perspective on this all-important early-season matchup. It’s always valuable to hear from the other side, and his thoughts provide great context for what’s to come.
If you’re on social media, I highly recommend giving him a follow—he’s got plenty of quality footy insights on both X and Bluesky.
Go Bombers !
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