Bombers vs Tigers Preview

Some sort of redemption.

The annual Dreamtime clash is here again, and Essendon heads back to the MCG, determined to move past last week’s bitter disappointment, rediscover its identity, and reaffirm the progress it has made this season.

While the win column hasn’t been ticking over regularly this season for Richmond, their consistency in performance hasn’t fluctuated too far, and their preferred game style will certainly test an Essendon side that, at times, has struggled to counter, particularly on the open expanses of the MCG.

2024.

There wasn’t much to take from this game last time, certainly not enough positive aspects outside of the 12-point win and the stellar return of Ridley, who claimed the Yiooken Trophy for best on ground in his first game of the season after a long injury layoff.

At the time, Essendon sat second on the ladder and were in prime form, having won five of their last six, with the other result being a draw. Meanwhile, Richmond were languishing in 17th place with just one win.

The Tigers were ripe for the picking, but a key flaw prevented Essendon from controlling the game, one that lingered through the next block of matches and eventually snowballed as the season wore on.

Coming into the game, Richmond ranked 18th for clearance differential, losing that count by an average of 7.1 per game. That meant poor starting positions due to a loss of territory and a lowly average of just 41.8 inside 50s per game.

But the Essendon midfield wasn’t up for the challenge, losing clearances by 10. As a result, the Tigers had plenty of opportunities ahead of the ball with 55 inside 50s, while the Bombers spent most of the game rebounding and regaining territory through efficient ball movement off intercepts.

The basics.

After the disappointment of losing the stoppage battle last Dreamtime, Essendon’s midfield will be keen to make amends against a Richmond on-ball unit that’s again ranked near the bottom in 2025.

Ten games into the season, Richmond ranks 17th in total stoppage differential, averaging -2.9 around the ground and -2.4 in the centre square. As was the case heading into this corresponding game last year, the immediate flow-on effect is field position, an issue Essendon has also grappled with in recent weeks.

Richmond’s opponents are averaging over 55 inside 50s per game, third-most in the league. It’s one of several reasons the Bombers must improve on last week’s inability to turn first possession into effective clearances.

Over the last five weeks, Essendon ranks 9th for turning first possession at stoppages into clearances, with the past two games their worst results for the year. Yes, the Dogs and Swans are top-five in this space, but Richmond sits 16th. Get it right this week, and Essendon immediately puts the Tigers’ backs under pressure and tests their ball movement in transition.

It’s back to work we go.

It’s been tough going at the coal face since Round 6, and the flow-on has been felt across the ground. Essendon has only gone inside its front third 50 times or more twice this season, both in the first three rounds. Since then, they’ve averaged just 41.8 entries per game, the lowest in the competition over that stretch, giving them almost no platform to generate a competitive score.

If you’re only going inside 50 that many times, you’ve got to be efficient in turning those entries into shots at goal, and the Bombers haven’t been. Just under 41% of entries are resulting in scores, with only St Kilda and Port Adelaide converting at a lower rate since Round 6. You’re also limiting your own scoring chances from the front half, with just under 30 points per game starting from possession chains in that zone, ranked 16th in the league in that time.

But it’s not just about manufacturing more looks at goal, it’s about asking Richmond to generate scores starting much further from goal. If Essendon can get this phase of their defensive setup right, it opens up more opportunities to score from the most reliable and sustainable source: turnovers.

Where to cash in.

The Tigers rank 18th this season for moving the ball from their defensive 50 into their forward 50, and unsurprisingly, they’re also generating the third-fewest points from their defensive half. If Essendon can follow the template that’s worked for Richmond’s opponents, shutting down their ability to go coast-to-coast, then turnover opportunities open up, with 22% of their turnovers coming back over their heads and onto the scoreboard this season.

When the Bombers do get the setup right, controlling territory and forcing turnovers off the back of earlier work, they need to get more reward for it. Only 18.7% of opposition turnovers are turning into shots at goal this season, ranked 14th in the league, a rate that’s not going to cut it against a lowly-ranked opponent.

When the opportunity comes, Essendon need to be quicker and more decisive with ball in hand. The expanses of the MCG open up more space to test Richmond’s ability to defend, with more leading lanes for the Bombers to work in and out of as marking targets — or to reintroduce the run and overlap that’s been missing due to poor starting positions post-intercept over the last six quarters.

Profile.

While the work rate with ball in hand will be tested, it’ll be just as important without it, as Richmond’s ball movement shares some similarities with Essendon’s.

Unlike Essendon though, they’re not a high-possession team, but when they do get their hands on it, they prefer to control it on the way forward. The Bombers take the second-most marks per possession chain, with only Brisbane recording more on average. Richmond rank fifth, and only three teams average fewer disposals per mark than the Tigers (Essendon rank ninth), so Essendon will want to get back to the form they showed before last week’s game, where they were intercepting the opposition every 5.18 possessions from Round 5 to Round 9, a rate that would currently rank sixth-best over the season.

On watch.

It’s a lineup with plenty of speed when they choose to use it, particularly in the front half.

The Tigers aren’t a tall side overall, especially not forward of the ball, and even less so with Lynch unavailable. With a potential question mark around the weather come Friday, the leg speed of Mansell, Campbell, Lalor, McAuliffe and Green, all small-to-medium forwards capable at ground level, will be a serious test inside 50.

Campbell ranks 25th in the league for forward 50 groundball gets, while Mansell and McAuliffe sit 13th and 16th respectively for tackles inside 50. After last week’s horror showing, where the Bulldogs won 28 groundballs in Essendon’s defensive 50, matchups, pressure, and tackling will be firmly in the spotlight for the Bomber defenders.

Short sharp notes.

In Essendon’s last 10 games at the MCG, they’ve given up an average of 56.9 points from turnovers, compared to 45.8 at Marvel Stadium.

Since Round 7, when Goldstein replaced both Draper and Bryan, Essendon has averaged a -6.5 clearance differential per game, compared to a +6.8 when either Draper or Draper and Bryan were rucking. That shift has also impacted scores from stoppages, before Round 7, the Bombers had a +6.2 average differential, compared to -10.2 from Round 7 onwards.

Caddy and Roberts are Essendon’s top two players for winning contests outside of stoppage. They’re also the two highest-ranked youngest players in the competition in that category, with Roberts ranked 6th overall for groundball among all players who have played at least two games.

Richmond ranks 5th for opposition kicks per intercept mark, behind only Carlton, Adelaide, Brisbane and Port Adelaide. Essendon sits 17th, ahead of only West Coast.

The Tigers have the top three ranked hardball winners across both sides, with Hopper, Dow, and Taranto all ranked ahead of Durham, Tsatas, and Caldwell.

Essendon averages +10.9 uncontested possessions per game this season, while Richmond averages -42.4.

Vlastuin is averaging just under eight intercept possessions per game, ranking only behind Taylor (GWS) among players with three or more games this season.

Despite having the fewest inside 50s of any side since Round 6, Essendon takes a mark inside 50 one in every four entries, the fifth-best rate in that time, behind only Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide, and Geelong.

Bring it home.

Essendon’s performance against the Bulldogs was bitterly disappointing and would’ve undoubtedly shaken the team’s confidence, raising self-doubt across all areas of modern football.

While this week won’t fully repair the damage, it’s still an opportunity to correct course, rebuild the momentum that had been developing in key areas, and address the underlying issues that continue to impact other parts of the game.

Richmond may not pose enough challenges across the board to expose all of Essendon’s current deficiencies, but the Bombers will still need to show resilience when the game isn’t on their terms, and a commitment to sticking to the fundamentals under pressure.

Go Bombers