Bulldogs vs Bombers Preview

The time starts now.

This week marks the beginning of Essendon’s most demanding stretch of the 2025 season, a run that will place their system, discipline, and adaptability under constant pressure. It’s not just a test of how effectively they can execute their own brand, but also how well they can respond to, absorb, and negate the strengths of the teams ahead.

It all starts with the Western Bulldogs, a side more than capable of picking apart any cracks in the system, while also bringing out the best in those willing to embrace the challenge of taking on one of the competition’s premier teams.

Good memories.

Let’s be honest, the Western Bulldogs had the upper hand on Essendon for far too long going into the Round 5 clash last year.

Coach Beveridge had only lost to Essendon once in ten head-to-head matchups, but we have to be fair, throughout Beveridge’s era as coach, the two teams have had vastly different capabilities, with the Bombers having to “start again” post the Bulldogs’ 2016 premiership.

Since the disappointment of the 104-point loss to the Dogs in 2019, in the five meetings that followed, Essendon had averaged a differential loss in clearances by seven, in contested possessions by 17.2 and 10.2 for inside 50s.

So going into that game, it was more than understandable that supporters were concerned about what was going to unfold in front of them.

The Bulldogs had been ranked in the top two for clearance differential in the previous three seasons. But in this game, the Bombers went head-on into the Dogs’ strength and not only came out victorious (35 to 28 at stoppages), but also used it as their main score source, with 44 points coming from those clearance wins, culminating in a +22 point differential. Very telling in a 29-point victory.

This time.

As highlighted the last time these sides met, the Western Bulldogs’ biggest weapon remains their dominance at the stoppages, and nine rounds into 2025, that hasn’t changed.

The Bulldogs currently rank 2nd in total clearances, with a differential of +4.89. That’s even more noteworthy when you factor in that they’ve already faced the other four teams of the top five in this measurement.

Winning the contest is one thing, but turning that into scoreboard returns elevates their game further.

What’s its value?

They rank first in the competition for points from stoppages, converting over 31% of clearances into shots, the best rate in the league, and averaging just over 50 points from 13 scoring shots per game.

Their form leading into this clash is ominous: across the last three games they’ve averaged 15 shots, including 15 against GWS and 18 the following week versus Port Adelaide, eight of which originated inside forward 50. Can Essendon rise to the challenge and produce a repeat of their effort from just over 12 months ago?

Across the season as a whole, Essendon stacks up reasonably well, but zoom in on the last five rounds, and a different picture emerges.

During that stretch, the Bombers rank 13th for total clearances, with their struggle to win the ball inside the contest and exit cleanly to the outside remaining a key issue.

Still, the damage hasn’t fully translated to the scoreboard, with the Bombers conceding just 25 points per game, ranked first over that stretch. But give the Bulldogs that kind of territory repeatedly, and it likely won’t hold.

Even more valuable.

We saw just three weeks ago what elite teams like Collingwood do once they win territory.

The Magpies dominated time in forward half,

suffocating Essendon’s exits and feeding their intercept game. The Bulldogs pose a similar threat.

They rank 3rd for time in forward half across the season, and number one over the past five games. The payoff? An average of 46.8 points from forward-half chains, ranking second in the league.

Time to back up.

Last year, it was Essendon who controlled the pre-clearance battle, thanks to a collective effort.

Liberatore led all comers with 13, but the Bombers filled seven of the next ten spots on the list. This time, the Dogs have more options.

Liberatore again enters as their highest-ranked midfielder, sitting 10th in the competition, while Kennedy and Richards slot in at 29 and 33 respectively. For Essendon, it’s Tsatas, Durham, and Caldwell ranked 21st, 32nd and 43rd.

This weeks job may be a little different, denying the ability of the Western Bulldogs inside midfielders to feed their teammates outside.

With eight games now in the books, Essendon finds itself in elite company when it comes to denying the opposition from turning first possession into an effective clearance, ranked alongside Collingwood and Geelong. That’s been driven by pressure and tackling at the source. That pressure has held up across the middle and defensive thirds, where Essendon sits 4th in the league for tackles, behind only Carlton, Hawthorn, and Geelong.

Inside out.

Let’s shift the focus from inside to outside, starting with contests at ground level.

With the names of Liberatore, Kennedy, Richards and Bontempelli once again featuring, you’d naturally assume the Bulldogs would be right near the top for groundball wins, but Essendon actually ranks two spots above them in that differential, sitting 4th. Between the arcs, though, it’s a different story, particularly in looseball contests (a disputed ball at ground level not under direct physical pressure that results in an opportunity to record a legal disposal).

Durham and Merrett both rank inside the top 15 in this measurement, sitting just ahead of Liberatore and Kennedy at 14th and 15th. Where the Bulldogs gain the edge is in their depth of ball-winning options, with Caldwell and Tsatas inside the top 75, compared to Richards, Freijah, Harmes, and Bontempelli.

However, with the recent structural change and last week’s selection adjustments, Essendon will be looking to improve on their season average of +1.25 in this area, which will be crucial against the Bulldogs, who sit at +7.88 and rank number one.

Essendon’s selection change last week, adding another genuine midfielder to the mix, paid immediate dividends against Sydney. It’s a setup that mirrors the Bulldogs’ approach in 2025, particularly between the 50-metre arcs.

Both teams push their half-forwards up to support the contest with numbers, which not only challenges their counterpart half-forwards in terms of matchups but also tests the decisions of the half-backs, whether to follow up the field or hold their position behind the ball.

Expect to see plenty of players around the contest, and from there, the team that can win the crucial battle will look to spread quickly, opening up space and initiating their preferred method of ball movement.

Moving the ball.

This is where some of the differences lie between the two teams. The Bulldogs’ default preference is to use the numbers at the contest to link up via handball and carry the ball forward. This is a mode I’ve been wanting to see more of from Essendon, and I’m pleased to say, it’s happening more frequently than it has in the past. Ball control via uncontested marks is still very prominent, as we saw last week, and a mixture of both methods will probably work best again this week.

The Dogs are not a high intercept team. After their nine games, they rank 15th for opposition possessions per intercept, with only West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond below them. It’s one reason why they sit 11th since Round 5 in defending possession chains going from end to end.

Even though they don’t win the ball back at a high rate, their ability to win it at clearance covers this, what they don’t allow is uncontested marks to their opposition, and it’s a genuine barometer for them.

The Western Bulldogs are the second-best team for opposition possessions per uncontested mark this year, with their opposition averaging just 71.6 per game. This marks a clear shift from last season, where in nine of their 10 losses, their opponents took 80 or more uncontested marks. Brisbane followed that method again this year, taking 88 in their Round 5 win. The question now is: can Essendon hit that magical 80+ mark again, like they have six times already this season for five wins?

Back half, front half.

Whether it’s through territory gained via clearance or through efficient ball movement, keeping the ball inside 50, or at the very least, in the front half, will be central to what this game looks like on the scoreboard.

Earlier I mentioned the Dogs were 11th for defending end-to-end transition since Round 5. Well, Essendon sits 16th over that same period, and allowing the Bulldogs to hit, or even exceed, their season average of 34 points from chains starting behind centre will test Essendon’s ability going the other way.

Only Geelong’s Blicavs and Atkins start more scoring chains from behind centre than Dale, across all midfielders and defenders in the competition. For me, that’s more than enough justification to assign a sacrificial role and have a shadow on him at all times.

Back in Round 3, Carlton gave Cottrell the job on Dale, and it paid off. Dale was held to just 20 possessions, down from his average of 25.3 since 2021, with only 14 of those uncontested, the lowest in any game this season. He also had just eight handball receives and, more importantly, only two score involvements, initiating just one scoring chain for the entire game.

Limiting his influence won’t just hurt the Bulldogs’ ability to score from the back half, it will give Essendon more chances to generate scores from their front half, which is an area of concern. Since Round 5, Essendon is averaging just 35 points per game from front-half chains, the sixth lowest in the competition.

Brings a smile.

Since returning from the bye, Essendon is only allowing 11 shots at goal from turnovers for an average of 40 points, the third least in the competition. Just 16.6% of total turnovers are ending in a scoring shot, the best rate of any side. But that recent form will be tested on Saturday, with the Western Bulldogs averaging just over 50 points from turnover in the same period, the sixth most.

A 10-point swing in the Bombers’ favour here, combined with a 10-point lift in their own scoring from turnover (currently 42 points), and the final result will certainly be up for grabs.

Trust your instincts.

Earlier, I covered both teams’ preference for supporting the contest at the source, with aggressive defensive structures pushing high up the ground. Both sides use attacking half-backs who regularly press into the front half. If Essendon can break through this line, there’s significant space behind to exploit and generate scoring opportunities.

The Dogs have been the easiest team to turn an inside-50 entry into a shot at goal over the last five games, yes, even easier than West Coast and North Melbourne, who rank just above them. With enough “dare” to push forward at the right times and the leg speed to match, the Dogs have been vulnerable at ground level, where their opposition has won the fourth-most ground balls inside their defensive 50.

With numbers between the arcs and more intercepts in the area, there will be chances for Essendon’s mediums and smalls to lose their direct matchup in traffic, “get out the back” into open space, and have good looks at the scoreboard. The challenge will be generating enough opportunities to set up a shot, as the Dogs have conceded the fourth-fewest entries into that area in that time.

Short sharp notes.

Goldstein’s endurance will be tested at 37, with English averaging 18 possessions per game this year, 10 of those uncontested, the most of any ruckman.

Earlier in the season, Essendon’s first quarters were a major issue. Now it’s the third. They’ve won just two for the year, conceding over seven shots at goal and more than 27 points on average.

West leads the competition for forward 50 groundball gets. Among the top 50 in that category, he ranks 10th for score involvements.

Since Round 5, Essendon is averaging just 42.8 inside 50s per game, the lowest of any team. In contrast, the Western Bulldogs have averaged 59.6, the most in that time.

Only Port Adelaide is averaging more one-on-one contests in their defensive half than Essendon since the bye, but only GWS has lost fewer of their contests than the Bombers.

Expect a high-possession game. Essendon and the Bulldogs rank one and two for total possessions this year.

All in all.

The Western Bulldogs have looked every bit as impressive as any team on-field this year, and the numbers across the competition support that. But this shapes as an ideal time to assess Essendon’s structure and growing capabilities, particularly in the defensive aspects that have shown improvement over the last five games.

This is a mature, experienced opponent, confident in their system and how they move the ball, but Essendon shouldn’t shy away from the challenge. It’s not just a test defensively, but an opportunity with ball in hand.

Ultimately, the result matters less than what can be taken from the game. The experience gained this early in the season, applied over the coming weeks and then across the next 13 games, will be invaluable. Being able to call back on these moments collectively at critical points will prove decisive.

Go Bombers !