Cats vs Bombers Preview

Too soon.

It was only six games ago that Essendon suffered its biggest defeat since the abysmal showing against GWS in Round 23, 2023.

With minimal change in availability or selection since that game, it’s fair to wonder if this one might end in a similar, or even worse, result, against a team in red-hot form and putting scores on the board at will.

The horror show that was.

I don’t want to spend more than a few paragraphs on the Round 14 matchup, there wasn’t much, if anything, positive to take from that game.

With a lineup that had 46.7 games of less experience on average compared to Geelong, Essendon was there to be punished, and few teams are better at administering that punishment than the Cats.

They were able to extract maximum value from Bomber turnovers as they tried to exit the back half, generating 20 of their 36 scoring shots from this area for a total of 85 points, the most any side had conceded from chains starting in that part of the ground this season.

When the game was stopped or in contest, the undermanned Bombers were able to hold their own, winning contested possessions by five and clearances by two, while the shot count from stoppages was narrowly in Geelong’s favour, 9–8, resulting in a 10-point margin from those chains.

But when the game was in motion and the Cats got their hands on the ball, the difference between the two teams showed, as Geelong converted over 38% of their intercept possessions into scores, almost 15% above their season average, for a massive total of 107 points.

You can bet the players moved on from this performance as soon as the siren went, and it’s time we move on as well.

A different look at this week.

This week’s preview is based on setting some performance targets across key areas of the game, and with last week still fresh in everyone’s mind, uncontested marks is the first.

A reasonable expectation?

In all of Geelong’s wins this year, they’ve averaged 97.85 or more uncontested marks per game, clearly a preferred method in their ball movement. In their losses, however, that number drops to just 71.16 as opponents have managed to restrict their unpressured game.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t align well with Essendon’s profile. The Bombers have allowed just under 98 uncontested marks per game this season, with the lowest tally of 70 against North Melbourne in Round 8.

Setting a target of 20 per quarter may be ambitious, but it’s only five fewer per term, and the Cats average the seventh-fewest disposals of any team this year. The benefits are enormous from even a slight improvement, as it limits their chances to change direction on the spread and better control the tempo of the game.

With the help of the narrower confines of GMHBA Stadium, the challenge for the Bombers is to keep Geelong in a tighter “bubble” around the contest for longer, forcing them to link up by hand, which in turn increases pressure at the source and results in more “dirty” ball.

Another reasonable expectation?

Due to Geelong’s work rate to find space, kicking precision, and aerial ability, they’re rarely pushed to the limit at ground level. But when their uncontested game has been denied, their groundball work hasn’t been able to cover the difference.

In their six losses, the Cats have lost the groundball differential three times and broken even once. Only two teams have won groundball and still lost to Geelong, one of those was Essendon in Round 14.

If the Bombers can restrict the Cats’ uncontested marking, even by a small margin, it will help pull the game more into contest, giving them a chance to test their ability to consistently win the hardball and looseball battles, and force them into a different mode to gain territory.

The first two process goals are difficult, but this one’s the most ambitious.

Err…maybe asking for too much…

In the Round 14 clash, it was Essendon’s ineffectiveness in ball movement from the back half that opened them up the other way, and hurt them on the scoreboard. Still, that should be put behind them this week, as they need to once again back themselves in to take Geelong on.

The Cats have shown a vulnerability, in fairness, mostly against stronger opposition, in defending the middle of the ground once the ball exits their front third, ranking 11th for chains that go end to end. In their losses, they’ve conceded 48 points per game this way, 20 more than in their wins.

Essendon, however, ranks last for turning a possession chain from defensive 50 into a score, and only North Melbourne is worse at even turning those chains into inside 50s. So it’s an ambitious target, but considering Geelong averages the third-most inside 50s (56+ per game), the opportunity will be there.

Let’s see if the Bombers can leave the scars of last time behind and keep attacking Geelong’s setup behind the ball when the opportunity presents.

The whiteboard.

Now it’s time to shift the magnets.

Geelong has two defined stoppers in their lineup — Oisin Mullin and Mark O’Connor — with Tom Atkins a third if needed. Coach Chris Scott rarely hesitates in assigning them a job, and based on history, Essendon captain Zach Merrett is the obvious target.

With that in mind, it might be worth seeing if Merrett can once again take on a sacrificial role.

In my review of the Round 13 game against Carlton, I detailed the positive flow-on effects of Merrett moving to half-back against a player who had no intention of winning the ball, and therefore had little impact as a forward. It’s something I’d like to see at least trialled this week if, as expected, a tag is coming Merrett’s way.

It’s a powerful front half that Geelong possesses, averaging over eight different goalkickers per game, second only to the Bulldogs this year, so if Brad Scott can force even a minor change to the Cats’ usual structure, it may help limit their scoring potential.

Geelong’s usual setup involves Brad Close, Tyson Stengle, and Shaun Mannagh (it used to also include Gryan Miers, though he’s now being deployed as a midfielder for large minutes as the season has gone on) starting in the front third and “rolling up” toward the contest. They act as what I call a “second midfield layer” — first helping to clog up the middle of the ground and support in defence, before getting involved in transition the other way. The space they leave behind is then used to link up, ideally by foot, as noted earlier, to take the ball forward.

If Merrett can spend the game as a defender, with either Mullin or O’Connor as his shadow, it will at least force one of Geelong’s usual forwards into a different role, impacting the game from a different position and, in turn, helping an undermanned Essendon backline deal with one less proven scoreboard threat.

I know what the immediate pushback will be: “But Merrett is Essendon’s best midfielder, he needs to be on-ball.”

Fair, but it’s also time for others to get exposure in there. The first one I want to see is Archie Roberts.

The 20-year-old ranks fourth at the club for groundball wins among those available this week, and second to Andrew McGrath for groundballs won post clearance. Almost 20% of his possessions are won this way, proof of a natural appetite for the contest.

It’s a big ask to match up on someone like Tom Atkins, Geelong’s number one for contested ball and hardball gets, but for a player Matthew Lloyd has touted as having similar traits to Geelong great Joel Selwood, I think he’s the type who would look forward to the challenge.

Some more magnets.

Matt Guelfi to Tom Stewart shapes as an obvious matchup, one we’ve seen work before.

Guelfi has had success in the past against the competition’s number two defender for starting scoring chains (only Bailey Dale ranks higher), but this time it needs to be a much more defensive shut-down role. The medium forward hasn’t been dangerous enough in the front half this year, so it’s now time to impact the game by limiting how dangerous Stewart can be in the back half.

Angus Clarke, in only his first pre-season, won the 2km time trial back in January (which probably says just as much about his teammates, unfortunately). So how about some motivation for the young man heading into his second pre-season, a role on either Max Holmes or Bailey Smith.

The Cats teammates rank second and third in the league for metres gained per game, behind only Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, and are probably the hardest runners in the competition. This week provides a benchmark to drive Clarke’s continued improvement.

Archie Perkins would also benefit from running alongside both Holmes and Smith.

Ninety-seven games into his career, Perkins, for mine, doesn’t yet show enough smarts and/or initiative to consistently get to positions where he can win the ball or receive from teammates.

If there are two players to take notes from in learning how to get to the right spots and find some “easy” ball on the outside, it’s these two.

Smith is ranked second in the competition for uncontested possessions, and Holmes is 26th, both ideal examples.

Short sharp notes.

Essendon hasn’t beaten Geelong in Geelong since Round 18, 1990, with the average losing margin of 43.5 points since then.

Earlier I wrote that Geelong has the highest kick-to-handball rate, well, that’s the complete opposite of Essendon, who has the highest handball-to-kick rate

Last year, Essendon averaged the third-most marks per game, while Geelong averaged the sixth-least. This year, the Cats average the second-most, while Essendon the sixth-least.

Geelong’s Atkins leads the competition for tackles in 2025. For the Bombers, Will Setterfield and Jye Caldwell rank first and second at the club in this category, third is Merrett, who sits more than 50 places below Atkins overall.

In the Round 14 matchup, Holmes was the highest-rated player on the ground, recording 36.5 AFL Player Rating points, the top-rated game by any player this year until two weeks ago, when Nick Daicos posted 37.2 against Richmond.

“Que sera, sera.”

Go Bombers!