Notes.
This preview could have easily extended to 20 or 30 minutes. In my view, there's no team more fascinating to watch from a tactical standpoint than Geelong, as deciphering their mission and goals in real-time is always intriguing.
Their diverse mix of players and the various positions and roles they can adapt to, from week to week and even quarter to quarter, gives Chris Scott numerous strategic options against their opponents.
Although I'd love to write about all my notes on the Cats, this week I've kept it to the broad strokes.
Recent history.
July 15, 2023, Round 15, marked the beginning of the end for Essendon's 2023 season.
It was the second worst result of the year, only surpassed by the GWS game, and came just a week after one of their best performances against Adelaide.
With 105 points conceded from turnovers and getting smashed in clearances by 29, Essendon only managed 28 entries into the forward third and failed to win a single one-on-one contest there. It's best to leave that behind, but here's an opportunity to right a wrong.
The changes.
Last year's game holds some horrific numbers, but it shouldn’t be used as a guide for how this game should and hopefully will pan out. Both teams have changed the way they play.
In 2023, Essendon's games featured the third most transitions from defensive 50 to attacking 50. This year, Geelong's games feature the most, with the ball on the move much more compared to last year when Geelong's games featured the 7th least.
Ball movement, both in defence and attack, is a key ingredient for Essendon this week. However, the way the two teams move the ball is different.
The traditional marking game that aided Geelong’s ball movement in recent times has disappeared. Last year's 91.4 marks per game, ranked seventh, is now 80.6 and ranked 18th.
This season, Geelong isn't afraid to engage in the contest, favouring long, direct kicks as their preferred territory gain. They are currently the number one ranked team for territory gained per disposal and number two for the percentage of possessions won via a contest. There's no more over-handling the ball.
But can Essendon play their preferred game of uncontested marks and possession in transition forward? And is it the ideal strategy against the Cats?
Adaptability.
No opponent demands Essendon to adapt their game style more than Geelong.
While Essendon prefers measured and methodical ball movement this season, this week may call for a quicker pace.
Fast ball movement will likely be crucial for victory, but choosing the right moments will be key.
The Bombers must avoid giving the Cats time to set up their defensive structure, as this allows them to generate the extra defender behind the ball, making them even more difficult to score against. Their defenders prefer to mark the ball more than most.
Currently, Geelong ranks 4th for intercept marks, with the usual suspects down back that we all know of, with Henry, Stewart and Guthrie all in the top 40 for intercept marking defenders.
It’s a tall lineup down back, so Essendon should aim to lower their vision first and hit up leading targets before opting for long, high kicks, depending on how the ball movement unfolds as mentioned earlier.
Brad Scott was the first to assign a tag to Stewart in the preseason, with the rest of the competition noting it since and proving that it can work against Geelong’s number one interceptor.
For the previous three years, Stewart has averaged 3.1 intercept marks a game, while this year that has dropped slightly to 2.6.
While it’s not a huge difference, there are flow-on effects from that.
The percentage of his disposals that are part of a score is his lowest since 2019, and his contested marks average is also his lowest since 2019. Easy uncontested marks are gone, currently the lowest since his first year of football.
The selfless role his matchup has played means there’s no easy ball in his area any longer, with his 9.8 uncontested possessions being the lowest also since his first year.
Guelfi was assigned to him in the practice match, and we would all expect he’s given that task again this week.
In three key games against Sydney, G.W.S and Port Adelaide, Jordan, O’Hallaron, and McEntee all played Stewart as if he were the forward, positioning themselves on his back shoulder and always within arm’s reach to spoil in aerial battles, as well as keep his mind occupied knowing there’s a tag right on him at ground level.
Last week saw a return to form for an Essendon forward line that had sputtered in previous weeks, struggling to have any impact, let alone effectiveness, when the ball came into that area. However, there are still dangerous players who will demand a Geelong defender to be accountable for his decisions in coming off his matchup to assist a teammate as an extra at the contest. But it is still on Essendon’s ball delivery and, importantly, decision-making when going forward, and one aspect that can help is a big one, the M.C.G.
The helping hand.
I wrote a couple of weeks back in my review against Carlton about the benefits the M.C.G should have for Essendon, and how increased exposure to its dimensions will help going forward.
While the length of Marvel Stadium and the M.C.G is the same, the M.C.G's width is 12 metres greater, which Essendon should use to their advantage with ball in hand.
Marvel’s dimensions make switching the line of attack more challenging, but the G’ offers spaces for players to work in and out of, becoming options as lead-up targets between the arcs. Instead of going sideways, kicks on the 45 will help open up holes in the defence. If Geelong opts for a defensive zone or one-on-one defending, separation will be required. Both modes will rely on the Bombers continually working to find space for themselves or create spaces for their teammates.
The expanses of the G’ should allow for faster ball movement. It doesn’t necessarily have to be quick forward movement, just as long as they don't hold onto possession for too long, keep the ball in motion. One of the goals is to spread the Cats' aerial defenders into one-on-one battles and not give their midfielders and high half-forwards time to get back for support.
Defending the M.C.G is always a difficult assignment, and defending the G’ against Geelong is even more challenging.
A key ingredient.
A significant factor for success on Saturday will be defending, and it begins with defending from the front half of the ground. Over the last five games, no team has conceded more scores from their own defensive half than Geelong, with almost 50% of their opposition’s score coming from this area.
During the same period, Essendon ranks second for intercepts between the 50-metre arcs, but would like to see an increase in the points scored from those front-half intercepts this week as a reward for their hard work. It’s mainly efficiency and accuracy that's holding back their effectiveness here.
Defending against the opposition’s intercepts is a key performance indicator of defensive capability. Essendon hopes Geelong's recent trend continues. Since round 10, the Cats are ranked 17th in preventing turnovers from turning into scores, allowing over 65 points from turnovers alone. In the same period, Essendon ranks 4th for points from intercepts, behind only Brisbane, Sydney, and Carlton, proving that chances of success are a real possibility.
The second midfield.
The Cats' midfield and forward brigades work as a wave up and down the ground, with the midfielders pushing deep into the defensive side to assist, and the half-forwards effectively playing as midfielders between the arcs.
Structures behind the play at all times are a must.
Don’t want Stengle, Close, and Miers with space to work in and use their speed to get behind the defence. These three are in the top six for score involvements at Geelong, all averaging five and above a game.
While Stengle and Close both average just under 14 possessions a game, Miers is averaging over 20, ranked third for the Cats, do not want him having his season average of 28% of his possessions as a link in a score.
The three as a group will be an interesting matchup for Essendon, not just in who, but how.
I would expect Kelly and McGrath to take on two, with either Redman or Heppell taking the other. The choice of how they defend against them is a big question. How far up the ground do they follow them? Plus, how many at one time? These can be split-second decisions and, if not communicated with teammates ahead, could see the ball coming at them and being caught between positions on the ground.
The first midfield.
In last year’s return game in Geelong, the Cats' midfielders took an interesting and effective approach against the Essendon midfield that night.
Their setup around the ground at stoppages was to stand directly behind their matchup, pushing the Essendon midfield inside the immediate contest and surrounding them. This forced no easy exits by hand to the outside for clean clearances, making Essendon use quick kicks for territory gain, but to a defensive structure of the Cats that was set up to win the ball back. This positioning also meant that if Essendon did get their hands on the ball first, Geelong was ready to pounce with tackling and intercept possessions, this obviously the main reason for having 25 shots at goal from intercept.
This year, the Bombers have improved their balance of players inside and outside the contest at stoppages. They now have a better setup, ensuring that some players attack the ball or man inside while others maintain structure on the outside, regardless of whether they win or lose the contest.
Last year's game undoubtedly taught many lessons, and I'm sure these will be revisited this week to ensure the players are prepared.
Over two goals a game for Geelong are coming directly from the centre bounce, with the obvious Dangerfield being a starter inside there.
In the past, the Geelong Captain has relished his time against Essendon’s midfield, but this year the Bombers have enough rotations that hopefully can wear him down.
In the first head-to-head game last year at the MCG, Stringer was sent into the middle to help regain some ascendancy as Geelong won the first six centre clearances, which was a major factor to them kicking the first six goals of the game.
After 14 games, Stringer is attending centre bounce slightly less than his previous two seasons' average of 36.5% However, this year he’s been assisted by Durham and Perkins, who are averaging 56 and 48% respectively. This trio should now focus on working together to challenge Dangerfield both inside and outside the contest.
The real danger man.
While Dangerfield was out injured earlier this season, Holmes, who started the year at half-back, was given more time on the ball, and it’s paid off. In the last five games, only De Koning and Bontempelli rank higher on AFL Player Ratings than Holmes. He ranks number three for metres gained per game, with the majority of that gain coming from run and carry rather than long kicks, leading all midfielders in running bounces per game. Essendon can't afford to leave him loose on the outside.
While there doesn’t look an ideal matchup for him at centre bounce, could this be a job for Hind, once outside the area, to help keep him in check.
While Holmes and Dangerfield bring attack and dare to their game, they are well-balanced with the likes of Atkins, Mullins, Blicavs, or O’Connor, who can play a run-with role—something Merrett will likely need to deal with again.
Bring it on.
There’s no better team for Essendon to test themselves against than Geelong, especially with eight games left in the regular season.
The Cats are the most versatile on the field and the most tactical in the coaches' box. They have long challenged developing teams like Essendon at this stage.
To the players, I say: play each moment as it comes; and to the coaches, adapt quickly and decisively.
Go Dons!
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