This is the first part of a three-part series assessing Essendon’s list. Specifically, it focuses on bridging the gap between our current team and our future premiership winning team.
In ‘PART A’, we discuss the theory behind selecting a balanced team, as well as then putting it into action. After familiarising yourself with these principles, I encourage you to leave a comment on X with your own selected team.
Below is a detailed breakdown of ‘PART A’ as well as an outline for the rest of the series.
Series Breakdown:
• PART A – determining Essendon’s current best team.
o Methodology (A) – explaining player roles and listing Essendon’s candidates.
o Results (A) – revealing the selected team.
o Discussion (A) – evaluating the team’s strength and weaknesses, and commenting on unlucky omissions.
• PART B – quantifying the talent on Essendon’s list and determining its premiership winning team.
• PART C & CONCLUSION – exploring possible player acquisitions and calculating a premiership window.
PART A
Have you heard players say, “I’m just playing my role”, and wondered what that actually meant?
Well on the eve of the season, I created a simple blueprint for anyone to select a best 23. As you could imagine, much has changed since then, and much is still changing. Hence when applicable, I will be updating this theoretical best 23 based on positional changes from the weekend, ongoing breakouts from players, and even the theoretical discoveries of new roles.
In essence, this blueprint is merely a framework to outline identifiable roles to the average fan. Additionally, due to coaches being very fluid with their opinions on selection, this framework also aims to eliminate any grey area, instead providing a simple black and white system with little to no ambiguity.
As always, I structure this to allow you to choose your own team should you not agree with my selections; however, the goods of this framework lie in the detailing of the different roles rather than the actual selections themselves.
METHODOLOGY (A)
Candidates will be listed by considering the positions they have played either at AFL or VFL level, or by predicting their best position by correlating their unique attributes to that of the described role.
Defence:
B: Interceptor Anchor Lockdown
HB: Creator Zoner General
Interceptor (third man up)
The third defender behind a key position pairing, the ‘interceptor’ must be able to lock down his direct opponent while also dropping off to assist fellow defenders in the air. These players are typically spoken about as the “third man up” in a defensive marking contest.
Good examples include Jake Lever, Callum Wilkie and James Sicily.
Essendon candidates:
• JORDAN RIDLEY —> someone who looks at his best playing as the third defender. He reads the ball superbly and intercepts accordingly.
• Kaine Baldwin —> has unfortunately had his year ruined by injury and cannot be considered for selection.
Anchor (full-back)
Takes the deepest forward and locks them down. The ‘anchor’ must be good in one-on-one situations where he will often find himself on the last line of defence.
Good examples include Steven May, Jacob Weitering and Sam Taylor.
Essendon candidates:
• BEN McKAY —> has started his Essendon career in reasonable form, albeit with a few shaky games. He locks down his opponents though and that is all that matters.
• Sam Weideman —> has somewhat revived his stalling career, although is still likely to be on the outer comes season’s end. For now, he provides depth to our limited key defender stocks.
Lockdown (small stopper)
Tasked with looking after the opposition’s goal sneak, the ‘lockdown’ must be incredibly disciplined as they play a sacrificial role.
Good examples include Connor Idun, Brandon Starcevich and Judd McVee.
Essendon candidates:
• JAKE KELLY —> a lockdown specialist and nothing more. He should not be deployed on the wing or at half-forward ever again.
• Andrew McGrath —> too good to be playing a pure lockdown role. His run and dash must be utilised.
• Tex Wanganeen —> has the back pocket role in his blood given the heroics of his father. He could be worth persisting with given the almost immediate improvement since his positional change.
Creator (quarterback)
As the quarterback of the team, the ‘creator’s’ role is to orchestrate offence from the back half. In modern footy, this is typically the team’s designated kicker; however, some teams elect to employ a genuine runner off the half-back line.
Good examples include Lachie Whitfield, Dayne Zorko and Bailey Dale.
Essendon candidates:
• Mason Redman —> someone who has been given a more defensive role this season despite possessing natural offensive flair. In my opinion, the role of the ‘creator’ is better suited to a penetrating kick rather than a precision kick. This makes Redman the perfect candidate.
• Archie Roberts —> a beautiful kick and a reliable VFL performer. He has moved off the wing and into this role in his last two VFL games. He should be pushing for selection soon.
• Saad El-Hawli —> while he played wing for Essendon VFL, his speed and kicking skills should absolutely translate to a reliable half-back option.
• Nic Martin —> has obviously settled in nicely across half-back, racking the ball up with ease. In my opinion, his best position is forward of centre where his footy iqand precision kicking can be better utilised closer to goal.
• Jye Menzie —> has looked uncomfortable in the limited game time spent in defence. I would not have thought this would be his preferred position.
• Luamon Lual —> still seems a raw prospect in need of development. He is reportedly improving every week but will not be pushing for selection this season.
Zoner (centre half-back)
A partner in crime to the ‘anchor’, the team’s ‘zoner’ is the more offensive of the two, looking to hover across and influence as many marking contests as possible. They typically are not as strong in one-on-one contests as the ‘anchor’, but they have a superior ability to influence pack situations.
Good examples include Harrison Andrews, Jeremy McGovern and Mac Andrew.
Essendon candidates:
• JAYDEN LAVERDE —> although prone to the odd turnover, he is a combative warrior who has grown into the role as the season has progressed. He is, however, only a stopgap for Zach Reid and should not be our first option.
• Zach Reid —> has been let down by his body. Hopefully 2025 is the year for him.
• Kaine Baldwin —> has unfortunately had his year ruined by injury and cannot be considered for selection.
• Lewis Hayes —> has improved this year but not quite enough to be considered for selection.
General (general defender)
Positions himself on the half-back line and commands it. Think of the ‘general’ as an old school half-back flanker, someone who has a healthy blend of offensive and defensive accountability.
Good examples include Tom Stewart, Nick Vlaustin and Nic Newman.
Essendon candidates:
• ANDREW McGRATH —> a strong leader with a nice blend of attacking and defensive ability. He can lockdown tricky small forwards while also providing run and dash.
• Mason Redman —> a good candidate for this role, but with McGrath flourishing and the team’s need for a designated kicker, he is better utilised in the more offensive ‘creator’ role.
• Dyson Heppell —> besides experience, it is hard to explain what he brings to the team. He lacks the speed to defend smaller opponents; he lacks the strength to defend larger opponents. Provides valuable depth, but nothing more.
• Nik Cox —> still figuring out his best position. It is hard to comment on him at the present time.
Midfield:
C: Two-Way POD Two-Way
FOLL: Ruck Accumulator Architect
Two-Way (wing)
Balanced players whose jobs are to provide their team with width on offence and support on defence. They typically come in the form of pure gut-running midfielders but have also evolved to include keyposition-sized players with strong aerobic bases.
Good examples include Errol Gulden, Blake Acres and Isaac Cumming.
Essendon candidates:
• XAVIER DUURSMA —> has proven a crucial makeup of our transition defence, constantly folding back to influence contests in defensive 50. He is also beginning to learn to float forward and hit the scoreboard as well.
• HARRY JONES —> a nice twist in his career. He was basically playing the wing position as a key forward; he now loses a key defender as a direct opponent. This allows him to utilise his size and aerial prowess to greater effect against smaller opponents.
• Nik Cox —> still figuring out his best position. It is hard to comment on him at the present time.
• Dyson Heppell —> not enough speed or size to play as a primary winger. He can only be considered as wing relief, but even then, his days are numbered.
• Saad El-Hawli —> looked awesome on the wing against Carlton’s VFL side and is unlucky to have suffered a syndesmosis injury. Hopefully he gets a chance in the final rounds of the season.
• Archie Roberts —> has looked solid on the wing, but a hole in the ‘creator’ role means Roberts may be best suited to half-back at the present time.
• Elijah Tsatas —> clearly not his best position as his poor disposal gets exposed in this role.
• Will Setterfield —> too slow to play on the wing. I would not trust him to cover the ground well enough in transition.
• Jake Kelly —> should not need explaining. No thank you.
Point of Difference (inside-outside midfielders)
These players possess a unique attribute, adding a different dimension to a midfield make-up. They typically come in the form of two archetypes: the big-bodied midfielder or the explosive midfielder.
Big-Bodied Midfielder (inside bias)
These players are contested possession monsters. Some can pinch hit forward and kick goals as a semi-key position player; others can tag and add defensive accountability to a one-way midfield group.
Good examples include Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Cripps and Josh Dunkley.
Essendon candidates:
• Archie Perkins —> has a lot of upside but does not find enough of the footy to be part of a primary or even secondary midfield rotation. He needs to go to the VFL and work on his craft.
• Will Setterfield —> is a reliable and honest player. Perhaps he is too honest, with his main criticism being his one dimensionality. He still may offer value in the right circumstances, however, such as in the wet or when tagging another big-bodied midfielder.
Explosive Midfielder (outside bias)
These players possess rare speed capable of splitting stoppages open. They are valuable commodities in centre bounce situations where the increased space allows them to push forward at pace. They hit contest after contest with short repeat bursts.
Good examples include Chad Warner, Luke Davies-Uniacke and Christian Petracca.
Essendon candidates:
• SAM DURHAM —> has had an unbelievable breakout season where his repeat efforts have turned him into a cult hero. He has incredible upside considering his rapid improvement.
• Dylan Shiel —> has gotten fit and has revived his career. He still has something to offer but could be an unlucky omission in a fully fit side.
• Elijah Tsatas —> needs time to develop in the VFL. While he can find the ball, he needs to learn to utilise his explosiveness in traffic more often. He also needs to improve his kicking.
Ruck
Takes the ruck contests and tries to put the ball on aplatter for his midfielders. The ‘ruck’ also looks to roll back and plug holes in defence while drifting forward on occasion to kick a goal. They can be a crash and bash style player or in the mould of an extra midfielder with good mobility.
Good examples include Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy and Tristan Xerri.
Essendon candidates:
• SAM DRAPER —> our number 1 ruckman and a player who gives 100% effort in every contest. He could, however, do with some improvement in his ruck craft and overall decision making.
• Todd Goldstein —> if selected, needs to play as the majority ruckman due to his ineffectiveness forward of the ball. In a one-ruck system, however, he is only depth.
• Nick Bryan —> a victim to limited opportunity. He could be forgiven for requesting a trade at season’s end to seek regular playing time.
Accumulator (inside midfielder)
As the name suggests, this player is a ball magnet. As first possession winners at stoppages, the ‘accumulators’number one job is to extract ground balls. They then must possess elite hand balling skills to feed the ball out to the more outside oriented midfielders. The truly elite ‘accumulators’, however, also have the ability toinfluence the game on the outside.
Good examples include Lachie Neale, Caleb Serong and Sam Walsh.
Essendon candidates
• DARCY PARISH —> Parish, despite his interrupted season, is still a quality inside midfielder. In his absence, our early season stoppage dominance has diminished.
• Jye Caldwell —> has stepped up in Parish’s absence to become a reliable player. To be considered ahead of Parish, he would want to bump up his disposal and clearance averages to the elite level.
• Ben Hobbs —> another unlucky player stuck behind the quality in front of him. Like Bryan, he could be forgiven for seeking increased senior opportunity elsewhere.
Architect (outside midfielder)
Often receiving handballs in tight off the ‘accumulator’, ‘architects’ prefer to do their damage on the spread. These midfielders ooze class, often hurting the opposition with their elite kicking skills, evasiveness, and decision making.
Good examples include Nick Daicos, Noah Anderson and Harry Sheezel.
Essendon candidates:
• ZACH MERRETT —> captain of the club and our best player. Nothing more needs to be said.
• Nic Martin —> clearly a classy player and a beautiful kick of the footy. But with Merrett vying for a Brownlow in this role as well as Martin being a legitimate forward threat, his midfield minutes are better of coming in spurts rather than as the norm.
Forward:
HF: Dynamo Athlete Linker
F: Crumber Leading Fwd 2nd FF
Dynamo (fwd-mid)
They ‘dynamo’ floats across half-forward and creates goals, often delivering the ‘money kick’ inside 50. They can also pinch hit in centre bounces where their dynamism is at the forefront.
Good examples include Toby Greene, Izak Rankine and Shai Bolton.
Essendon candidates:
• NIC MARTIN —> half-forwards require players with high footy IQ; Martin has this in spades. He can find space in tight spots, and he is a terrific exponent of the ‘money kick’.
• Archie Perkins —> seems to get lost across half-forward. He might be better suited as a midfielder where he is constantly around the ball and surrounded by other quality players.
• Jake Stringer —> seems to be playing closer to goal this year; he may not have the fitness base to play as a permanent half-forward anymore. (Note: his centre bounce attendances do not qualify him as a half-forward).
Athlete (centre half-forward)
Forms part of the one-two punch in the forward line. The ‘athlete’ can either serve to crash packs and provide a marking target down the line, or to roam up the ground almost like a giant mid-forward. Therefore, the ‘athlete’should have strong interplay between the arcs.
Good examples include Charlie Curnow, Jeremy Cameron and Josh Treacy.
Essendon candidates:
• NATE CADDY —> how exciting is this kid? He crashes packs and he plays with an edge. He could be our best player in a few years.
• Harrison Jones —> struggles to have an impact as a genuine forward when his run and jump is prevented. He seems much better suited to the wing position.
Linker (high half-forward)
Operating between half-forward and the wings, the ‘linker’ presumes the role of a high half-forward. Often hardworking and pressure players, they work to assist the team in transition offence, delivering the ball into the forward line and working to keep it there. Think of them as small wingers.
Good examples include Brent Daniels, Alex-Neal Bullen and Gryan Miers.
Essendon candidates:
• JADE GRESHAM —> has drifted in and out of games and has endured some perplexing role changes as of late. He is, however, worthy of a spot in the team as he adds spark and crumbing ability to what isotherwise a vanilla forward line.
• Matt Guelfi —> his true position. Unfortunately, he is not currently able to play as a ‘linker’ due to the team’s lack of a traditional ‘crumber’ (see below). He would benefit from being given more defensive roles like the ones he did on James Sicily (rd 1) and Lachie Whitfield (rd 9).
• Nick Hind —> has found his niche as a high half-forward. A solid role player able to provide spark at important times.
• Alwyn Davey Jnr —> a good pressure forward who still needs to learn to find more of the footy. While disposals are not paramount to his effectiveness, averaging only 6.4 disposals and 1.8 inside 50s (both rated below average) are just not enough to warrant consistent selection.
• Ben Hobbs —> been forced to play this role at times due to not making the starting midfield. He can be effective at finding the ball, but he lacks the speed to cover the ground and pressure sufficiently.
• Jye Menzie —> similar to Guelfi in that he has played that ‘crumber’ role. He also lacks the tricks to play as a true goal sneak and therefore needs to zero in on the more workmanlike ‘linker’ role.
Crumber (small forward)
A traditional small forward whose job is to kick goals and give defenders nightmares. ‘Crumbers’ reside in a forward pocket where they are constantly leading and crumbing off the bigger forwards.
Good examples include Tyson Stengle, Charlie Cameron and Cody Weightman.
Essendon candidates:
• MATT GUELFI —> not a traditional crumbing forward, but one who is playing the role out of necessity. Considering that, he is doing an admirable job.
• Jye Menzie —> as discussed, can play this role but is better suited to a high half-forward role due to his lack of tricks.
• Jayden Davey —> would ideally fulfil this role, but his lack of fitness and conditioning means he needs to continue to ply his trade at VFL level. Hopefully, he will soon be pushing for selection and we can finally have a true small forward.
Leading forward (full-forward)
Always leading and bringing the ball to the ground, the ‘leading forward’ anchors the forward line. They must be able to work well in tight spaces where they will be the main target of deep forward 50 entries. They can come in the form of old school power forwards or 200cm giants capable of playing as the 2nd ruckman.
Good examples include Jake Waterman, Harry McKay and Nick Larkey.
Essendon candidates:
• PETER WRIGHT —> someone who is in shakyform. He needs to toughen up and hold onto his marks if he ever wants to return to form.
• Jaiden Hunter —> incredibly unlucky to suffer such a cruel injury on the eve of the season. He most likely would have debuted this season given Wright’s struggles.
• Vigo Visentini —> an incredibly raw prospect who is need of development at VFL level.
2nd Full-Forward (third tall)
A lot of variation can exist in this role. They usually play like a full-forward but lack some of the physical attributes of a traditional bookend. For instance, it typically sees a mid-sized hybrid forward that is good in the air and good on the ground. It can, however, also exist as a less established key forward in a 3-pronged attack.
Good examples include Will Hayward, Bailey Fritsch and Sam Darcy.
Essendon candidates:
• KYLE LANGFORD —> currently going through the motions but continuing to kick goals. He will benefit from the emergence of Caddy.
• Jake Stringer —> like most of his career, Stringer has remained an enigma this season. He has had purple patches where he looks like a superstar and patches where he looks selfish and disinterested. He does, however, still provide much-needed x-factor and size to our centre bounce rotations.
Interchange
Versatile Def • Complementary Mid • Pressure Fwd • Utility
In general, players picked on the bench can be selected in two different ways: the next best player or a player that complements the on-field mix. I typically prefer the latter, using the bench as a means for achieving team balance.
Versatile Defender
Typically, this player is a half-back who provides versatility. For example, we usually select our 7th defender as somebody who can also provide wing relief. This spot may also be utilised to suit the matchups of the opposition forward line. For instance, if a team has a mosquito fleet of small forwards, an extra small defender may be selected.
Essendon candidates:
• ARCHIE ROBERTS —> given the already tall backline that has been chosen, selecting a small defender seems most appropriate for team balance. With Martin’s hypothetical move to half-forward, a spot has opened for Roberts across half-back where he can provide rebound and wing relief.
• Saad El-Hawli
• Jye Menzie
• Dyson Heppell
• Nik Cox
Complementary Midfielder
This spot is ideally used for a midfielder that complements the starting mix by balancing inside and outside play. For Essendon, with Parish as the primary ground ball and clearance player (while Durham and Merrett excel on the outside), an inside-focused midfielder would be ideal. Preferably, this player would be big-bodied, but given Stringer's presence in the middle, selecting the next best inside midfielder, regardless of size, is also a valid option.
Essendon candidates:
• JYE CALDWELL —> the undeniable next best inside option after Parish. Similarly to Durham, he has exploded this year and has provided much need hardness to a midfield previously considered ‘soft’.
• Archie Perkins
• Will Setterfield
• Ben Hobbs
Pressure Forward
In the modern game, most teams select a dedicated pressure forward to add to the existing forward mix; however, if the two starting small forwards already offer sufficient pressure, teams may select a mid-sized option for added versatility. Given our lack of frontal pressure and speed, a dedicated pressure forward is a must.
Essendon candidates:
• NICK HIND —> adds leg speed, pressure, and versatility. He has found his calling as a high half-forward where he is able to work hard along the wings while also occasionally hitting the scoreboard.
• Alwyn Davey Jnr
• Jye Menzie
• Jayden Davey
Utility
This spot may be for a second ruckman if the coach opts for a two-ruck system; it may be for a player who adds a unique attribute to a lineup (adds leg speed to a slow team or experience to a young team); it may be for a player who is simply too good to ignore; it may be for a genuine utility.
• JAKE STRINGER —> adds some x-factor to a team that lacks it. Despite his inconsistency, he simply must play.
• Dylan Shiel
• Archie Perkins
• Todd Goldstein
• Nik Cox
• Dyson Heppell
• Alwyn Davey Jnr
• Jye Menzie
• Saad El-Hawli
Substitute
As a substitute, running power is crucial. Being able to effectively cover the ground when everyone around you is fatigued is a real weapon. It allows a sub best-22 player to gain a genuine competitive advantage, providing them with the best chance to impact a game.Ideally, the substitute is not used on a young player as they are generally better off getting a full game at reserves level. Come the business end of the season, though, this principle may be ignored as winning is the main priority.
Essendon candidates:
• DYLAN SHIEL —> the unluckiest player to miss out on selection. He has pace and experience and can definitely impact as the sub.
• Alwyn Davey
• Archie Perkins
• Jye Menzie
• Saad El-Hawli
• Jayden Davey
RESULTS (A)
Hypothetical Best 23
Full-Back Line:
RIDLEY MCKAY KELLY
Half-Back Line:
REDMAN LAVERDE MCGRATH
Centre Line:
DUURSMA DURHAM JONES
Half-Forward Line:
MARTIN CADDY GRESHAM
Full-Forward Line:
GUELFI WRIGHT LANGFORD
Followers:
DRAPER PARISH MERRETT
Interchange:
ROBERTS CALDWELL HIND STRINGER
Substitute
SHIEL
DISCUSSION (A)
In my opinion, the biggest strength of the list lies in the even spread of talent across all lines: there are not many players one would consider unworthy of selection. Simultaneously, this strength is also the source of the list’s biggest weakness: the team has an abundance of B-grade talent which prevent it from ever bottoming out or ever truly contending. Fortunately, while this once looked like a pit we would never escape, we are (finally) starting to rise. This concept of “elite” talent will be further explored in ‘PART B’.
Regarding specific holes, the obvious one is the lack of a true small forward. The only player on the list who fits the mould of a ‘crumber’ is Jayden Davey; however,being a pick 54 with zero games of experience makes it difficult to place too much faith in him.
Our spine is also a concern. Jayden Laverde and Peter Wright, for instance, are not players I would be confident naming for a grand final. This especially applies to Laverde who is only in the team due to Zach Reid’s ongoing injury issues. Wright, while capable, would need to return to form to retain his spot.
Lastly, some general worries include a lack of kicking ability and speed. I have tried to address these with Archie Roberts and Nick Hind, but a couple players cannot solve these issues on their own. Focusing specifically on kicking ability, there a lot of players who butcher the ball. These include Ben McKay, Jake Kelly, Jayden Laverde, Andrew McGrath, Sam Draper, and Darcy Parish. Some are worse than others but together they contribute to crucial turnovers which plague our on-field success. Regarding speed, the need for ‘linkers’ is crucial in the modern game. Given our tall wingers, this need for quick ‘linkers’ is even further exacerbated.
Unlucky Omissions
• Archie Perkins —> has not played consistent enough footy to justify his selection. He, however, boasts enormous upside and should form a major part of our side in the coming years.
• Nik Cox —> floats around too much for mine. He needs to lock down a position and make it his own in order to justify his selection.
• Zach Reid —> injury woes have ravaged his season. If he can put together a consistent year in 2025, he should go past Laverde.
• Will Setterfield —> a solid player that is probably too one dimensional in a midfield full of great depth. He still may have a part to play in our story, just not as a starting midfielder.
• Ben Hobbs —> stuck behind Parish and Caldwell. The arrival of Jade Gresham has also impacted Hobbs’ likelihood of playing in his secondary position as a ‘linker’.
• Alwyn Davey Jnr —> needs to find more of the ball. It is hard to select a player who does not touch the footy. He is, however, knocking on the door given our limited small forward option.
• Dyson Heppell —> has been a wonderful servant and warrior for this club, but just lacks speed and hurt factor. He plays safe which prevents turnovers but also means he has little impact on games. We just have better options now.
• Todd Goldstein —> a victim of the employed system. I am not a fan of two-ruck systems and we win more frequently with Wright as our second ruck. The emergence of Caddy also straightens up our forward line to the point where an extra tall is no longer needed.
Final Thoughts
In ‘PART B’, the concepts explained today will be extended to provide a quantified snapshot of the overall talent on the list. This will then help to highlight who will be part of our next premiership side while also revealing the specific positional holes we need to address in ‘PART C’
(You can expect ‘PART B’ to be released towards the end of the season.)
As always,
Go Bombers!
James Youil (13-year Essendon member)
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