It begins here.
At last, Essendon kicked off its 2025 season after the frustration of last week’s false start.
This clash was always going to be a challenge, not only due to the way both teams finished the 2024 season but also because the Hawks had the advantage of playing opening round, allowing them to shake off the dust and come into this contest “second up from a spell.”
After a promising off-season, the Bombers would be eager to showcase their progress and put a step in the right direction to the long campaign ahead.
How to attack this.
I’m dividing this review into two distinct parts, reflecting the contrasting nature of the game as it unfolded: the first half versus the second half, the good versus the bad, contested versus uncontested, and zone defence versus one-on-one matchups. By breaking it down this way, I aim to emphasise just how dramatically the game shifted across these key aspects. I also hope to shed light on the factors that contributed to the outcome, what Essendon can learn moving forward, and, of course, what we as fans can take away.
Why doubt him.
Having attended numerous preseason training sessions this year, I naturally harbored concerns about Caldwell’s readiness for the 2025 season. After undergoing offseason surgery, Caldwell began his preseason behind most of his teammates, leaving questions about when he would return to full fitness and recapture the form he displayed in 2024. However, my worries began to fade during the official practice game against Geelong, and any lingering doubts were completely erased after witnessing his impressive 80-minutes Friday night. It was clear there was nothing to worry about.
With 79 AFL games under his belt, Caldwell’s 15.9 Player Rating Points (a statistical measurement by Champion Data designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of a player’s performance based on weighted impact and influence) ranked as the equal 9th highest-rated game of his career.
Of those nine games, only once did he earn more contested possessions than his 17 against Hawthorn this week (50% of his possessions were earned the hard way), and never has he won more than the 12 he earned at ground level, an area that Essendon has been eager to see improvement in.
His 10 clearances were split between five at centre bounce (Essendon won 11 in total) and stoppages around the ground, with four scoring chains started from his work.
Caldwell finished last year ranked 8th in average tackles for all players who played six or more games, and his 11 on Friday showed that his attack on the opposition is set to continue this year.
His phenomenal start to the season was rightly pointed out in Mitchell’s press conference after the game.
…” i thought his inside contest work was first class tonight, he was probably the best player on the ground I thought”…
First half.
“We sat back off them a bit too much, particularly in the first quarter…”
-Brad Scott post game press conference.
Essendon’s struggles with defending ball movement has been an ongoing challenge and attempting to address this against one of 2024’s top ball movement teams at the MCG was always going to be a daunting task. Unfortunately, despite their efforts, the Bombers were unable to rise to the challenge in the early stages of the game.
While Essendon managed to dominate initial territory through clearances, with an advantage of 12 in the opening 20 minutes, they were unable to capitalise on the scoreboard. Once Hawthorn gained possession, the hard-fought territory was lost far too easily.
By the end of the first quarter, Hawthorn held a +21 advantage in uncontested possessions, effectively working their way back up the field and converting these opportunities into scoreboard pressure.
The AFL average in 2024 for opposition possessions per intercept was 5.25, with Essendon ranked sixth best at 5.07. However, in the first quarter, Essendon managed to intercept Hawthorn only once every 8.07 possessions—a poor start in a key aspect of the game.
Hawthorn exploited Essendon’s defensive lapses with 31 unpressured uncontested marks, exceeding Brisbane’s 2024 average per quarter as the top-ranked team in this metric by six. This efficiency allowed Hawthorn to convert 51% of their possession chains into inside 50 entries.
The defensive zone that Essendon aimed to improve during the preseason was a complete failure.
When the ball did go forward into the attacking third for the Bombers, and it wasn’t marked (only one mark from 10 inside 50 entries) or converted into maximum points, it bounced out far too easily due to a lack of work rate to locate an opponent quickly enough, as well as insufficient leg speed to “get over” and close down the outlet option.
Still the first half.
While the contest ramped up in the second quarter (literally and figuratively), with Hawthorn now breaking even in the clearance battle and the game’s total uncontested possessions dropping by 29, unfortunately, the same issues persisted once the Hawks had the ball with time and space.
Hawthorn recorded 26 uncontested marks during the quarter, enabling them to convert 31% of their possession chains into scores, nearly 9% better than Brisbane, the top-ranked team in this metric in 2024. The defensive zone’s weaknesses were being exploited with alarming ease.
Second half.
…”but again, I’m pleased we were able to adjust that and get the game somewhat back on our terms. In the second half, we controlled big parts of it. The screen that I looked at was flashing green on most metrics…”
-Brad Scott post game press conference.
After the red flashing lights of the first half, it was always going to be interesting to see what the method would be in the third quarter.
Thankfully, the Bombers abandoned the ineffective zone defence and shifted to a more accountable, one-on-one approach.
In the first quarter, Hawthorn averaged just over 15 metres gained per disposal, and in the second quarter, just under 15 metres. However, with Essendon tightening up on uncontested marks and applying greater pressure, Hawthorn’s attempts to regain lost territory became more rushed and far less controlled.
The Hawks could only manage 76 disposals for the quarter, well down on the earlier two quarters of 117 and 100, respectively, and this time, the average metres gained per disposal was over 20 metres. Up until half-time, they led uncontested possessions by 37 but lost the count in the third quarter by 17.
The easy ball was no longer available, with Essendon intercepting Hawthorn’s possessions at a much better rate of 4.43 during the next 20 minutes. Hawthorn’s efficiency in converting possession chains into inside 50s plummeted to 26.9%, a sharp decline from 51.7% in the first quarter and 63.6% in the second.
After dominating contested possessions in the first half, Essendon had successfully shifted more of the game into their preferred style.
The hard work was paying off, and the game shifted as a result, but it warranted greater reward on the scoreboard, both offensively and defensively.
Deserved more.
After generating just two shots on goal from intercepts in the first half, Essendon improved significantly in the third quarter, turning 16 intercepts into five shots.
They converted 17 inside 50 entries into nine shots on goal at a rate of 52.9%, nearly 10% better than their 2024 average. However, poor accuracy – three goals and six behinds – prevented them from applying real scoreboard pressure.
…”We’ve got to defend that (ball use) better than we did tonight…”
-Brad Scott post game press conference.
While Essendon managed to slow down Hawthorn’s transition game, the Bombers’ defence was exposed when the Hawks found space or won contests ahead of the ball.
Hawthorn managed just seven inside 50s in the third quarter, down from 15 and 14 in the first two quarters. However, when the ball entered their forward 50, Essendon’s defence bled.
If you thought the Bombers' efficiency in turning an inside 50 into a shot at goal at 52.9% was impressive, Hawthorn managed to generate a shot at goal 85.7% of the time.
Unbelievable.
Six shots at goal came from those seven entries, with four marks taken in that zone. For context, across three quarters, Essendon could only manage four marks inside 50.
Defending the last line was a major challenge for Essendon in 2024, and it’s an area that will hopefully see improvements sooner rather than later in 2025.
The last quarter followed a similar pattern to the third, with Essendon intercepting at an even better rate and keeping Hawthorn to just 32 uncontested possessions and 17 uncontested marks. The Bombers’ setup at stoppages remained effective, winning 11 to three. However, the 6-6-6 rule at centre bounces hurt on the scoreboard.
This is the way forward.
The biggest positive was Essendon’s dominance in contested work through the midfield, a critical factor for success in finals. Stoppages increase by 23%, contests by over 6%, and tackles by 16% in finals compared to the regular season (based on Essendon’s 2023 and 2024 data compared to the finals average over the last three years).
Essendon won ground ball by 14 (only once did they win ground ball by more than 14 in 2024, against Collingwood on Anzac Day by 17) as well as winning pre clearance contested possessions by a massive 15 (last year they finished the year -2.2 in differential and ranked 13th) both of these areas helped by Worpel’s absence but nonetheless, the confidence they should gain from this should grow and when asked to fight fire with fire, they should know it’s in their capabilities.
Horses for courses.
I have to question how much of the selection was influenced by the opposition versus simply choosing the best 23 players available. While it was likely the strongest lineup the match committee could assemble overall, the matchups looked odd on paper on Thursday night—and even more so once the game began.
The tall Essendon defence was always going to have its hands full matching up against Moore, Watson, Ginnivan, McDonald, and Hardwick, and it became evident when the ball hit the ground and at stoppages.
Those five generated 15 shots at goal, converting 11 of them, while also taking nine marks inside 50 and winning 10 forward-50 ground balls. Watching McKay appear like a deer in headlights at stoppages next to Hardwick is something I hope to never witness again.
Although it was unfortunate for Ridley to suffer concussion and for Langford to now face a 4-to-6-week absence due to injury, their departures resulted in an expected improvement in the team’s balance, both in defence and the forward line.
Roberts proved to be a better matchup against Hawthorn’s smaller forwards, while Gresham utilised his leg speed effectively to apply pressure. His work alongside Kako, supported by Hobbs, helped in keeping the ball in a dangerous area more consistently.
There’s still significant progress required to finalise the ideal lineup, but hopefully, the first 80 minutes of the season provided valuable lessons.
Now onto round two.
The effort was there from the start, and with another “run under their belts,” skills and decision making should hopefully improve.
There’s still a learning curve in positioning and handball receive to link-up and create run, especially as the team is transitioning from a slow, kick-mark game to more dynamic ball movement.
Good teams capitalise on their opponents’ mistakes and limit the impact of their own. At this stage, Essendon isn’t in that category, but as the weeks progress, I hope that perception begins to shift.
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