What is a possession chain?
A possession chain is the collection of an uninterrupted sequence of possessions by a team.
Chains can start in three different ways, through a kick in from an opposition's behind, a clearance from a stoppage, or forcing a turnover.
Chains end with either a goal or behind, a stoppage, or a turnover.
If you have spent any time on my blog, you have constantly had to read my words about wanting to see Essendon improve turnovers and intercepts, and upgrade those by doing it further from the opposition goal, well here's another look at it, but from a slightly different perspective.
Possession Chains to Round 24, 2023
As you can see, Essendon started with the football on average 111.17 times a game.
That's 111.17 opportunities that can lead to a score.
With the AFL average being 116.44, ranked 11th, Essendon's ranking of 17th is only better than the wooden spooners.
The top ranked teams were Melbourne, GWS and Adelaide.
Those three teams were 4th, 7th and 1st respectively in shots at goal after round 24 last year.
Bombers 13th.
In plain and simple terms, Essendon doesn't have enough chances to create scoring opportunities, and when they do, the majority start a long way from goal.
It gets worse though.
I'll get to that very soon.
When you then look at the opposition's possession chains, Essendon doesn't fair too poorly, 113.04 is in fact the exact same amount, well at least to two decimal points, as Collingwood's opponents.
Another two teams are very close also.
Brisbane with 113.65, and North Melbourne with 113.61.
Four teams in three very different finishing positions on the ladder.
Interesting.
Earlier I said it gets worse, let's not prolong it any more.
The percentage of opposition possession chains that ends up inside the Bombers defensive 50 is poor.
This is where the separation is between Grand Finalists Collingwood and Brisbane, compared to Essendon and North Melbourne.
The Pies and Lions didn't allow as many scoring opportunities, preferring to stop those chains getting closer to a goal scoring distance.
Brisbane only had 42.04% of their opponents chains end up inside defensive 50.
Collingwood 43.58%.
Unfortunately Essendon's was 49.35 and North Melbourne 51.40.
The Pies are 5.77% better than Essendon, even though both teams opponents averaged the same amount of starting opportunities.
That ended up with Collingwood's opponents going into the Pies defensive third 6.1 times less compared to Essendon's
You cannot allow almost half of your opponents possession chains to go inside 50, ultimately you're doing too much defending too close to goal.
Not only are they close enough to generate a shot, it also means if you win it back either by creating a turnover, via a stoppage clearance, or they score a behind, you start with the ball so far from your own forward third.
More than 50% of chains began in the defensive third for Essendon last year. The third highest percentage.
The AFL average was just above 45%.
With Melbourne and Brisbane the top two at under 41%.
45.33% of Essendon chains going inside 50 isn't a disappointing number, it's above average, sitting 10th overall.
Let's have a look at Adelaide who go into their front third with a very similar percentage.
The Crows had 45.53% of their own chains go inside 50, but they start with the football 120.04 times instead of 111.17.
Now their opponents start with it 119.09, which sounds like a large number also, but they can only go inside Adelaide's defensive 50 just over 43% of the time, remember Essendon was 49.35%
Once the ball has made its way inside your defensive 50, your chances to impact what the opposition does in there gets slimmer.
23.58% of Essendon's opposition chains ended up in a shot at goal, overall the third worst last year, you know the two teams that are ranked below.
One of the ways the Bombers could improve how many opportunities they have with the football is via stoppage clearance.
30.35% of Essendon's chains begin from a clearance, that's the 4th lowest of all teams.
I've said on numerous occasions, Essendon isn't a poor stoppage clearance side, -1.3 differential is below average yes, and 14th in 2023 isn't great either, but it's only 1.3 from being even.
So I'd like to see more stoppages a game, just over 43% of stoppages outside of centre bounce is the least amount of any matchup last year.
Let's keep the ball in the vicinity more often.
It doesn't have to be won, just don't let it out, halving it can be a win.
So the Bombers opposition begin a chain on 113.04 occasions.
26.65 of those end in a shot.
Again that puts Essendon in 16th with a percentage of 76.42%. that don't end in a shot.
For reference, these are the top 10 in order.
Melbourne
Carlton
Brisbane
St. Kilda
Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs
Sydney
GWS
That looks familiar doesn't it?
Well those teams finished in the top 10 of the ladder last year.
What hurts is that Essendon finished 11th, but is nowhere near them in that category.
Now it's one thing to write about the numbers and the issues that they detail, but it's also about coming up with a solution.
I say this year is perfect to be able to change what happened previously.
This is where a system change can make a difference and where the recruiting of McKay, Goldstein, Gresham and Duursma can help alongside their teammates.
McKay brings size and intercepting abilities to first, change the way the opposition attack, and second, end those attacks going any further.
Gresham has a fitness base behind him that allows him to start forward, and work his way up the ground to help in the midfield.
Duursma has a defensive instinct in wanting to run back and help behind the ball, and Goldstein has ruck experience to add to clearances numbers. Those four add multiple pieces to an area that I want to see an improvement in, between the arcs of the 50 metre lines.
I want to see closing the space when the opposition has the ball, don't retreat, concentrate on disrupting the ball where it is currently, not where it's likely to end up, worry about that later.
Throw more resources with half forwards such as Gresham, Caldwell and Perkins playing as extra midfielders in order to add more numbers at the source, making it no easy task for your opponent to get out of there, and if it does, it comes out dirty not clean, that will help defenders do their job further along.
The ball doesn't need to leave the area, don't be afraid of repeat stoppages, this is where you get full use of Goldstein and his tap work.
Remember how many stoppages Essendon games featured outside of centre bounce?
Well now marvel that Darcy Parish was equal 5th in stoppage clearances last year.
Let's see who else is capable in their alongside him.
Trust that McKay, with his size and capabilities, teamed up with Reid and Ridley down the line, can not only contend with the dirty ball that leaves the source, but also win it back and start a new chain, and always know that Duursma is working hard to get back as support.
Get the work done earlier rather than later.
All of that opens up more possibilities of possession chains by adding clearances and most importantly in my eyes, turnover opportunities, which in turn allow you extra chances to score, and with that, less chances for your opponents.
This is something that I'm going to be tracking and concentrating on this year.
I'm hoping to see an improvement in how many times Essendon can start a chain, and how many opposition chains are stopped before it's too close to be able to do anything about.
There's work to be done, so let's get on with it.
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