Review

You do what you can when you can.

Looking at some of the most basic stats on paper, this looked like a game all Essendon fans would dread in the wide-open expanses at the home of football, with the highest-scoring team coming up against the team that had conceded the most. Sydney had scored 100 or more points 13 times this season, while Essendon’s opposition had done so 12 times.

The uncontested control game has proven to be a weakness for Essendon under far too many coaches for far too long, with their inability to defend slow-play transition a frustration for all who follow. This isn’t Sydney’s default mode in 2026, however. Instead, their handball, overlap, run-and-gun style of keeping the ball in motion has been one that has favoured the Bombers.

Here, you’ll get to see what this looks like in the numbers.

Restarts.

Here’s one of the big reasons the midfield needs improving at the draft.

• Since the bye, Essendon has only won clearances in the first quarter twice, against GWS and Hawthorn. Coming into this game, they had a cumulative differential of -15, with 19 fewer shots at goal from this score source. In the first term against the Swans, they lost clearances by six and had four fewer shots at goal.

There’s winning clearances for territory, then there’s punishing.

• Five of Sydney’s first seven shots at goal in the opening 20 minutes of game time came from stoppages. All five were goals, with two coming from the back half, two from the front half and the other from a centre clearance.

The boys can win the ‘inside ball’.

• Despite missing three of their top five-ranked midfielders for contested possessions at pre-clearance through injuries to Darcy Parish, Sam Durham and Sullivan Robey, Essendon was still able to win this aspect by three, led by Will Setterfield, Jye Caldwell and Dyson Sharp.

Getting it outside is another thing.

• Essendon got their hands on the ball first at pre-clearance 40 times (16 directly from hitouts through the tap work of Vigo Visentini and Nick Bryan), but were only able to turn 25 of them into effective clearances. Since Round 16, no team has been more ineffective.

Too many ball hunters and not enough speed to stop the outside game.

• Last week Sydney had 13 shots at goal from their 20 centre clearances. This week, they converted one in every three into scores.

Multiple issues, including ruck connection to midfield, coaching structure around stoppages, and run and spread throughout the list.

• Essendon averaged only 7.42 shots at goal from stoppages this year, with only Richmond averaging fewer at 7.38. This week, the Bombers turned just three of their 33 clearances into scores. Only their Round 20 conversion against Hawthorn, of two from 26, is a worse rate this year.

The intent is there.

• At quarter-time, Essendon won hardball groundball 11-5, their best return for the season. Once the groundball got outside congestion, however, they were no match for the 17th-ranked team at looseball, losing it by 10 in the same period.

A quick adjustment helps, but more coaching and development is needed.

• In the second quarter, Essendon found a better balance between inside and outside, breaking even at hardball, 7-7, while winning looseball 20-13. Unfortunately, after half-time Sydney took control once again, winning it by five.

Sydney’s speed around the ball something to strive for, Matt Rosa.

• Between the arcs, Sydney won groundball by 19, Essendon’s biggest loss for the year. Leading into this clash, the Bombers had a -2 differential through their previous eight games.

More intent again.

• Essendon won all phases of contested possessions in the second quarter, both pre- and post-clearance, by five. Coming into the game, they had averaged a -4.25 differential since Round 16.

Better-quality entries, mainly through an extra possession or mark, provide deeper entries. The flow-on effects are everywhere.

• Essendon’s 18 forward 50 groundball wins are their most in any game in 2026, ahead of their 16 in Round 10 against Fremantle and Round 12 against West Coast.

Winning it back.

Good teams punish.

• Four of Sydney’s nine goals in the opening term came from Essendon turnovers while the Bombers were trying to rebound from their back half.

A great adjustment at the first change.

• Essendon had only 44.6% time in forward half in the first quarter. In the second, their front-half intercept game and repeat stoppages helped confine 59.4% of the play to that zone.

And with the strategy change comes a better defence.

• Coming into the Round, only Brisbane had been better than Sydney at going from defensive 50 to inside 50, while Essendon was ranked 18th at defending end-to-end transition. Against the Bombers, Sydney started 43 chains in its back third, but only eight went unbroken to the other end.

It was Essendon’s third-best defensive effort of the year, behind only last week’s wet game against Geelong and Round 12 against West Coast. For Sydney, it was their third-worst of 2026.

The proof is there.

• Five of Essendon’s eight scoring shots in the second quarter came from Sydney turnovers, with three of those in the front half.

The Swans have weaknesses.

• Three scores came from behind centre for Essendon in the second quarter. Two came from intercepts, while the other was a goal from a kick-in.

It is basic, but the good teams do it.

• Through the final three quarters, Essendon had 24 front-half intercepts, with one in three ending in a scoring shot, the Bombers’ best rate in any three consecutive quarters over the last two seasons.

Gain field position, and keep it.

• After conceding four shots at goal in the first quarter from turnovers in the back half, Essendon conceded only another three shots across the next three quarters from this part of the ground.

There are certain opposition systems that suit Essendon.

• The Bombers’ 5.33 opposition possessions per intercept is their second-best rate this year, behind only the 4.33 in Round 5 against the Demons. Their two middle quarters of 4.94 and 4.28 are their third- and 10th-best of the year.

Just need to keep it ‘dirty’.

• Essendon’s 76 tackles are their most in 2026, following on from their 72 last week, which was their equal second most. In fact, 76 is their fourth-highest total since the start of 2022. It’s also the first time this year that they have had 15 or more in all four quarters.

This is the real benefit.

• Only four finalists, Fremantle, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Geelong, along with 13th-placed North Melbourne, had 17 or more shots at goal from Sydney turnovers coming into this week. Essendon’s 62 points from turnovers was only the second time they had outscored their opposition from this score source since Round 16, and only the 11th time in their last 45 games.

Possession chains.

Getting punched in the face early.

• Sydney started with the football eight more times than Essendon in the first quarter. That followed Adelaide and Geelong starting with four and six more respectively in the previous two first quarters.

And now having to throw punches back.

• Across the middle two quarters, Essendon had a +9 possession-chain differential, mainly due to a +6 intercept differential.

If you work hard on the MCG, there are payoffs.

• Only Richmond was more inefficient than Essendon at turning a possession chain into a score coming into this Round. The Bombers’ 18.64% was almost seven percentage points below top-ranked Fremantle.

In the second quarter, Essendon converted just over 24% of their possession chains into scores.

Entries and scoring.

Too many issues here. Planning, system, strategy, and player capabilities the biggest.

• Essendon had conceded an average of 28.4 points in first quarters, the most of any team. Sydney’s 55 points in the first 20 minutes of this game was the second most in any game this year and the most Essendon had conceded since Adelaide kicked 56 in Round 4, 2017.

Two ruckman allow constant structure ahead of the ball. It could be the best lineup?

• In the two middle quarters, Essendon generated a shot at goal from more than 56% of their inside 50s. That was their best conversion across two consecutive quarters this year.

Sydney do have vulnerabilities.

• Essendon’s 50 forward 50 entries were their most since Round 9 against GWS. Across that period, they had averaged just 43.

It did improve through the game, thankfully.

• Sydney retained possession on 60% of their kicks inside 50, the fourth-best rate against Essendon this year behind Hawthorn in Round 20, Brisbane in Round 8, Collingwood in Round 7 and the Western Bulldogs in Round 4.

Uncontracted for 2027? Short term, he deserves one.

Will Setterfield’s 21.8 AFL Player Rating points were the second-highest of his 94-game career. His two highest-rated games have both come in his last seven games, with his best, 23.7, coming in Round 14 against Melbourne.

Setterfield led all Bombers for metres gained (663), possessions (29), contested possessions (12), groundball between the arcs (6) and looseball (7).

He got his hands on the ball first at pre-clearance 10 times, converting eight into effective clearances, almost a quarter of Essendon’s total.

He went inside 50 eight times, with five going to teammates who retained possession. Even better, three ended in a goal assist, the last possession that leads to a goal for a teammate.

It’s all there.

I’ve written about this on multiple occasions over the last two years, so regular subscribers and readers will already have a good idea of what a chaos game looks like compared with one of control. After this week’s game, there is more confirmation that chaos is the method that best suits Essendon’s list right now and probably into the future, not just in how they want to play, but also in how they can defend.

The high-turnover, handball game that dictates chaos allows Essendon to scrap and fight for groundball. With that comes a need to win more ground-level contests and, defensively, rely heavily on tackle pressure to win the ball back.

Poorer teams are usually held back by their inability to defend, more specifically their inability to impose their own game style on stronger teams. Instead, they are dictated to by how the game will be played and how the ground is set up.

Once stronger teams gain control of the ball, ineffective defensive setups and zones make it much more difficult to stop uncontested possessions, and more specifically uncontested marks, which then bring the game away from chaos and congestion.

This season, Essendon’s best performances have generally come against teams whose default mode is to run, carry and overlap rather than kick-mark their way forward. Melbourne is the biggest example, and obviously Essendon’s biggest victory not just this year but for a couple of years.

The Dees keep the ball in motion, playing a high-turnover game with end-to-end transition. In their Round 5 victory, Essendon was able to stand up when the ball needed to be won and, once they did, deny Melbourne possession by playing a controlled game with ball in hand.

The following week against Gold Coast, they faced a very similar challenge, except this time Damien Hardwick would not allow them to have control and they were forced to play how Gold Coast preferred.

I said at the time that the game against the Suns was a more sustainable long-term method than the style that beat Melbourne, not just because it suits the Dons better, but because it also suits finals football.

At that point of the season, Essendon had played two of the four teams that took the fewest uncontested marks in transition. Not long after, they would play the third, GWS.

The Giants have been known for years as a slingshot team that rebounds after winning the ball back with handball receives.

Of all the teams Essendon has played twice this year, their best performances were against the Giants.

At the other end, it’s easy to see their worst: Brisbane twice, Hawthorn twice, Collingwood and Port Adelaide. These four teams rank highest for uncontested marks per possession chain and require the fewest disposals to find an uncontested mark.

Once these sides got the ball on the outside, Essendon had no way to win it back and impose the style they would prefer to play themselves.

And the number one team for playing the chaos brand, the number one team for handball receives, the number one team for metres gained per handball, and the team with the highest rate of disposals per uncontested marks? Sydney.

The first quarter showed this immediately.

Try as they might, Essendon was unable to slow down Sydney’s run, carry and overlap. The Swans average 140.8 handball receives a game and, this week, almost a third of their 150 came in the first term.

There is some frustration in that, because everyone knows this is how the Swans want to play. Not being prepared and set up for it is disappointing.

After the first break, however, it was much more noticeable that, with the help of a structural change, Essendon was able to slow down the way the game was being played and where Sydney could go when they won the ball back.

No longer could Sydney generate a plus behind the ball to kickstart their handball, and Essendon no longer tried to mirror or match the way the Swans wanted to play.

In the first quarter, Essendon had 49 kicks and 44 handballs, while Sydney had 51 kicks and 62 handballs.

In the second, when Essendon had the ball, they played wider, straighter and slower.

With more risk involved for Sydney to change direction and go through the corridor, they were forced to play much safer to work their way forward.

In the second quarter, they had 22 fewer handballs and were forced to take 15 more marks in transition, after needing only three in the previous 20 minutes.

Forty-two of Sydney’s 111 possessions in the first quarter were in the corridor between the 50-metre arcs, with 34 for Essendon. In the second, both sides had only 16 in this area. That continued in the third and fourth, with Essendon having 17 and 26 and Sydney 19 and 17.

The final score will show a 36-point defeat, but all the damage was done early, with the margin at 37 points at quarter-time.

Once this Essendon list is coached, educated, trained and can execute a defensive system that allows them to stand up against the control game, then we will start to see something exciting more regularly.

Go Bombers!