Review

Counting down the days.

Things certainly haven’t been easy for Essendon this year, and that hasn’t eased on field, with a three-game stretch against opponents who not only have almost every aspect of their game in order, but are also building the momentum needed to take them deep into September.

Conversely, for Essendon, the winter has felt long enough and the season’s end couldn’t come quickly enough.

Two of the final three games will test the Bombers’ ability to defend against two of the competition’s best attacking sides. This week, however, they faced what I classify as the hardest team to play against. Unfortunately, Essendon is the easiest.

While the scoreboard and final margin certainly didn’t suggest it, there were still some encouraging signs. Let’s start there before turning to the more familiar issues.

Some sun shining through.

Sharp and Durham, Durham and Sharp.

• The Bombers won groundball between the arcs by seven, their third-best return since Round 5. The only better performances came in the +18 against Carlton and the +11 against GWS in their victory.

More Sharp and Durham, Durham and Sharp.

• Essendon won pre-clearance contested possessions by six. It was only the third time this year they had won this metric while still losing the clearance battle.

A big improvement.

• Essendon’s 17 marks on the lead were their third most of the season. It was no coincidence this also produced their third-best efficiency transitioning the ball from behind centre to inside 50, and their sixth best from defensive 50.

Some field position.

• After spending just 42% time in forward half before the main break, Essendon split territory 50-50 with Adelaide over the final two terms. That’s their highest share in a second half since the mid-season bye.

Some run, carry and overlap.

• Essendon’s 133 handball receives this week were their second most since Round 9 against GWS, behind only the 138 they had against the Giants in Round 19.

Bring the heat.

• Essendon’s 21 tackles in Q1 were their equal second most in any term this year and their equal highest total in a first quarter. Their eight tackles inside forward 50 also matched their best return in any quarter and were comfortably their most in an opening term.

More heat.

• Essendon’s tackle rate per opposition possession was 7.78, ranked 18th in the AFL.

By halftime, they were at 5.34, their lowest first-half rate of the year, while the opening 20 minutes’ of 4.42 is now their benchmark for any quarter.

Front half game.

• Four of Essendon’s seven goals to three-quarter time came from front-half intercepts, their fourth-best return in any game this year and their equal best since the mid-season bye.

More winning it back.

• Essendon’s second-half rate of 4.98 opposition possessions per intercept was comfortably their best in any half this season and a significant improvement on their season average of 6.59 coming into the game.

Putting it on the board.

• Essendon’s 73 points was their highest score since Round 9 against GWS, while their 21 scoring shots were their equal second most over that stretch.

Running out games.

• More than 35% of Essendon’s score came in the final 20 minutes of game time. That followed last week’s of more than 38%. No team this year has generated a higher percentage of its total score in that period than Essendon’s 35%.

Standing tallest.

• Peter Wright’s six goals equalled the most kicked by a Bomber in the last two years, matching his six against West Coast in Round 6 last season.

The sun has now disappeared.

Some initial field position would be good.

• Essendon once again lost the clearance battle. Since the mid-season bye, the only time they have won it was against GWS two weeks ago.

Who’s at fault here?

• Of Nick Bryan’s 21 hitouts, 11 resulted in Essendon clearances. Conversely, of Lachie McAndrew’s 38 hitouts, 17 led to Adelaide clearances.

Run ons.

• Adelaide converted just over 35% of its centre clearances into scoring shots, Essendon’s second-worst result conceded this year behind only Brisbane’s 47.6% in Round 8.

Inside to out.

• Adelaide turned 36 first possessions at stoppage into effective clearances, the most Essendon has conceded this season.

Inside out plus field position equals scoring.

• Adelaide’s clearance-to-score efficiency of 41.02% was Essendon’s worst result of the year, with the Crows’ 71 points from this source their second most in the last six seasons.

Huge priority over the summer.

• Over the last five games, Essendon has conceded an average of 14 scoring shots from clearance losses. The AFL average is just 9.49.

Bad decisions and poor execution.

• All five of Adelaide’s third-quarter goals came from Essendon turnovers, with four of those while trying to exit defensive 50.

Too big and strong.

• Adelaide controlled the air with 17 contested marks, their highest total of the season and the equal fourth most by any Essendon opponent in the last five years.

Far too big and too strong.

• Adelaide’s 19 contested one-on-ones in its front half were the most against Essendon this year, with the Crows winning nine of them, also the most against Essendon.

Slow start, again.

• Essendon entered the game ranked 18th for first-half scoring-shot differential (-5.8 per game). By halftime, Adelaide had twice as many scoring shots as the Bombers, leading 16-8.

Bleeding early.

• Only Sydney’s opponents score a higher percentage of their total in first quarters than Essendon’s. Adelaide scored just over 30% of its in the opening term, with its 44 points equalling the most Essendon has conceded in a first quarter this year, alongside the Western Bulldogs in Round 4.

Red time, dead time.

Adelaide scored 73 of its 145 points after the 20-minute mark of each quarter. Nine of its 12 goals came from set-shot marks inside 50.

The scoreboard keeps ticking over.

• Adelaide’s two highest scores of the past two seasons have both come against Essendon.

Just get it in.

• Over the last six games, Essendon’s opponents have averaged 19.1 marks inside 50, comfortably the most in the competition over that period. Adelaide took another 23 on Sunday, the equal second most against the Bombers this year. The AFL average coming into the game was just 12.1.

Let’s look at what the forecast has in store for us.

Dyson Sharp ranks third for contested possessions among first-year players, with Sullivan Robey first. The pair also sit first and third for hardball gets (contested possessions won at ground level under immediate pressure).

Around stoppage, Robey and Sharp rank first and second of all players aged 19 and under (minimum five games) for getting first hands to the footy pre-clearance. More than 71% of Robey’s possessions have come this way, with Sharp 56.4%. They also rank second and third for tackles per game.

Coming into this game, Nate Caddy was averaging 4.05 shots at goal. Relative to Essendon’s 44.7 inside 50s per game, that’s a shot from 9.06% of entries. Only Jack Gunston, Mitch Georgiades, Jake Waterman and Logan Morris have a higher rate among players to have played five games or more.

Playing just his third AFL game, Jaxon Artemis had 21 possessions, including six contested. Only Kyle Langford won the ball back more, while five of Artemis’ six intercepts came at ground level and two started scoring chains.

Five score involvements came from his 21 possessions, with only Peter Wright and Hussein El Achkar having a bigger influence on Essendon’s scoring this week.

In just his 23rd AFL game, Archer Day-Wicks laid seven tackles, with only Will Setterfield applying more across both teams. The 20-year-old is averaging 3.4 tackles a game this season, the fourth most of all players aged 20 and under (minimum five games). Of the 40 players Essendon has used this year, only Zach Merrett, Jye Caldwell, Will Setterfield and Sam Durham average more.

I imagine every Essendon supporter wants to see more of the next generation stepping up over these final weeks, building another layer of development through the summer and taking that growth into 2027.

Go Bombers!