Review

It’s been a long time.

Essendon headed down the highway this week chasing their first win over Geelong since 2018, while it had been well over a generation since the Bombers last won at the Cats’ home ground in 1990. There was therefore plenty of trepidation, with the competition’s fifth-highest scoring side to this Round coming up against the team that had conceded the most points this season.

Thanks for the memories.

*For anyone who would like to revisit that 1990 clash, here’s a link to the final quarter.

https://youtu.be/HYqZCvKv_oo?si=xxoVnIkJRvrMaLAz

Another sluggish start would quickly put paid to any hope of staying within competitive reach by half-time, but a spirited third quarter once again showed some signs of a fight when Essendon can get the game played on its terms, in chaos.

In this review, I’ve broken down the main areas of modern football that reliably influence results and, more importantly for Essendon, how the game was played.

First up, the 23 players on the park, and once again, one who continues to stand up at such a young age.

The young and the restless.

• Essendon has been one of the two youngest selected teams 16 times this season: nine times the youngest of the Round and seven times the second youngest. The oldest lineup they selected was in Round 11 against Richmond, yet they were still the fourth-youngest team of the Round. Their five youngest lineups of the season have also come in the last five games.

• Dyson Sharp led all Essendon players for contested possessions with 23. Seven of those came from intercepts, equal most of all 46 players and the most of any midfielder on the ground. Only Geelong’s Bailey Smith had more groundball between the arcs than Sharp’s eight. At stoppages, nobody got their hands on the ball first at pre-clearance more than Sharp’s nine, with seven of those converted into clearances, just under 20% of Essendon’s total for the game. But this isn’t just restricted to this week.

• Since returning from injury, only teammate Sullivan Robey and Carlton’s Jagga Smith have averaged more groundball in the midfield among first- and second-year players than Sharp. Those two are also the only players aged 20 or under to average more than his 4.75 pre-clearance contested possessions.

Now the game.

Stoppages.

• Essendon lost the battle at centre ball ups by 11. That’s the third time they have lost this important aspect by more than 10 this year. Only three times in the previous five years had they been beaten by more than 10.

• Essendon has a cumulative centre clearance differential of -40 in its last eight games, ranking clearly 18th in that period. Its points differential from centre clearances is -70, also clearly 18th.

• Only four times have Essendon held an opponent goalless from a centre clearance this year, and only once since Round 5 against Melbourne. Over the last six weeks, their opponents have averaged five scoring shots from this part of the ground, the most of any team in that period.

• In their first six games, the Bombers averaged 3.66 shots at goal from centre clearances. Since then, only two scores are coming from this zone.

• Coming into this game, Geelong was the fourth-best team at denying their opposition from turning a first possession at stoppages into an effective clearance. This week, Essendon’s midfield got to see just how effective they are, converting only 31 of their 47 opportunities. Nine of Geelong’s clearances came from stripping the Bombers of possession.

Two stoppage examples of Geelong denying Essendon a clearance after getting first possession. In the opening example, Blicavs is able to hold the ball in for a repeat stoppage, while in the second, Atkins gets a hand in to knock the ball out of Sharp’s reach.

Vision: Fox Footy and AFL.

https://video.wixstatic.com/video/8b4dc1_789047bcbe4247fbb88d6a7aa8805b27/file

• For the fourth time in the last six weeks, Essendon failed to score a goal from a clearance in the first three quarters of the game. This week, Geelong had nine scores from front-half stoppages by three-quarter time. On those four occasions, Essendon has scored just 12 points in total by the last change.

• Nine scoring chains were started by Geelong ruckmen Sam De Koning and Mark Blicavs, six more than Vigo Visentini and Peter Wright combined. No team has a worse differential in ruckmen converting a hitout into a score than Essendon.

• Since Round 17, Essendon is ranked 18th for turning a hitout into a clearance, with an average conversion rate of just 33.48%. This week’s 19.88% was their lowest of the year.

Possessions.

• For the second time in three weeks, and the third time in five, Essendon had less groundball in its defensive 50 than its opposition in the same zone. Only Carlton had a bigger differential coming into this Round over that period. Up until Round 18, Essendon had been beaten for contested possessions in its back third only once, against Collingwood on Anzac Day.

• Essendon lost looseball, a disputed ball at ground level not under direct physical pressure, by 17. Only once since the bye has Essendon won this metric, by nine against GWS in Round 19.

• At half-time, Essendon had a -40 differential in uncontested possessions, before finishing the second half with four more than Geelong. That followed last week, when they were -23 after the first two quarters before finishing +27 across the final two.

• Essendon has applied 41 effective tackles in first quarters across the last two games. In their first 19 games, they had averaged just 13.

• Essendon lost pre-clearance groundball by 13 on Saturday. Coming into this game, they had a +2.55 differential.

Transition.

• No team this year has allowed more goals from a kick-in than Essendon, and this week was the 15th game in which the opposition has been able to travel the length of the field and score maximum points from this score source. Only twice since Round 11 have they held their opposition goalless from this possession chain.

Intercept.

• Essendon’s rate of opposition possessions per intercept in the third quarter (3.29) is comfortably their best in any quarter over the last two seasons.

• In Q3, Essendon intercepted the ball in its front half 12 times, the most in any of their quarters this season, with four of those leading to scores. The 19 points they scored from this score source in the term is their second most in any quarter, behind only Q4 against Brisbane in Round 18.

• In the third quarter, there were a total of 73 possession chains, the most in any Essendon quarter since the beginning of 2025. Twenty-four of Essendon’s came from intercepts, their highest percentage also since the beginning of 2025.

• Both teams intercepted the ball in their front half 25 times. Essendon converted six of these into scores, while 12 went onto the scoreboard for Geelong.

• Geelong generated a score from one in every three Essendon turnovers in the first, second and fourth quarters. The number-one ranked team over the last two years has gone at just over one in every four.

Marks.

• The Cats took only eight uncontested marks in the third quarter and 22 in the second half. That’s the fewest the Bombers have allowed in any quarter or half over the last two seasons.

• Essendon has conceded 28 contested marks in the last two games, their fifth-highest total in back-to-back games since the start of 2024.

• In wet conditions, Geelong took 13 marks inside 50 by half-time, the most in a first half by any team against Essendon this year.

• The AFL average for intercept marks is 14.51. This week, Essendon took just seven, following last week’s nine. They have exceeded the AFL average in only five games.

Inside 50s.

• Up until half-time, Essendon had 18 forward 50 entries, equal-lowest in any first half this year and 17 fewer than Geelong. After half-time, they finished with two more than the Cats. That’s the fifth time in their last 11 games that they have won inside 50s in the second half after losing the count in the first.

• Essendon’s 16 inside 50s in Q3 was easily the most in any of their third quarters this year and the fifth most in any quarter.

Two left.

The Cats are a powerful side to contain, and leading into half-time things looked very concerning with the Bombers yet to put one through the big sticks.

Thankfully, they continued to push against a defensive system on its narrow home ground that is almost impenetrable, finally breaking through late in the second quarter.

They were then able to understand what had happened to that point in the change rooms and come out with better intent, but also a more reliable structure ahead of the ball, which made it easier to defend ball movement.

The main concern remains at restarts, where it is not only Essendon’s starting position that is hurting them, but also the lack of damage when they do win it and get it forward.

It is telling that, with this issue having been there for the majority of the year, a certain individual still cannot make selection.

Obviously, his negatives outweigh whatever positives he can bring, as not only do his papers look rubber-stamped, but so do those of a number of players who played in the VFL earlier in the day.

Go Bombers!