Suns vs Bombers Preview

The future.

This week marks the start of a challenging run, comprising six games against teams currently ranked within the top eight for the percentage of contested possessions versus uncontested. It begins with the Gold Coast Suns, who are positioned as the 3rd ranked team in this metric.

Arm wrestle for control.

A major improvement we, as fans, have seen from Essendon this year is the time spent in the forward half, resulting from territory gain.

This territory gain, in turn, is facilitated by winning clearances at the centre bounce and stoppage. However, all of this would struggle to happen consistently without the uptick in performance in contested situations.

This season, the Bombers have risen from a contested possessions differential of -2.8 in 2023, to now a differential of +4.9. This ability to win the ball in the air and at ground level provides Essendon with the first opportunity to dictate how the game is played.

Once possession is won, it then forces the opposition to come up with ways to regain control and move the ball forward efficiently.

While the Bombers' direction of ball movement can be a little indirect when going towards goal at times, the linking up from handball at least keeps the ball in motion.

Compared to last season, Essendon’s rate of uncontested possessions sourced from uncontested marks has dropped, reaffirming the preference to play on more from handball and keep the players ahead moving. However, this week presents a different challenge. There may be a need for more ball control in pursuit of the four points.

In the Suns' loss to the Lions in round eight, the Lions took 148 marks that night with a differential of 88. Two weeks later, in the Suns' win against Geelong, they denied the Cats the opportunity to control the tempo of the game, with Geelong only taking 43 uncontested marks for the game, a differential of 34 in the Suns' favor.

Last week, the situation reversed once more.

In the Suns 29-point defeat, Carlton managed to take 51 more uncontested marks, resulting in 114 extra uncontested possessions.

While the battle starts in the contested game here, once it gets outside of that bubble, much will hinge on the tempo both teams want to run with.

We'll want to see Essendon control this aspect of the game by consistently winning contests at ground level and in the air, or at worst, halving them to avoid losing them, and then controlling the tempo with marks, rather than having the game open and flowing back and forth in transition, which is exactly what Hardwick wanted at Richmond during their success. This strategy is now being transferred into a plan after 11 games at his new club.

The engine room.

This is where both teams' engines will display their power, and it will have to be sustained power.

Gold Coast boasts the top three midfielders in this game, averaging the most contested possessions and groundballs, with Rowell, Miller, and Anderson surpassing Merrett and Durham.

While the Bombers had more depth in their midfield rotations until recently, the Suns rely heavily on their top three, with only Davies and Humphrey getting significant midfield opportunities. Ainsworth, the half-forward, works up the ground alongside the wingers, Fiorini, and Clohesy.

Essendon’s lineup previously included Caldwell, Perkins, Stringer, Parish, Setterfield, and Hobbs, who could all spend time in the midfield, though the last three have been missing recently. Hopefully, after the limited mix used last week against Richmond, this can expand to include Martin, Gresham, and Tsatas as options this week.

Both Rowell and Miller prefer to use handballs to maneuver out of tight spaces, feeding Anderson, Fiorini, and Ainsworth to utilise their kicking skills, while Durham and Caldwell aim to supply Merrett and Perkins.

An always-improving aspect of Essendon’s game this season is maintaining the right balance inside and outside the contest - inside to battle opponents, with support on the outside to close space and apply pressure if needed, or to assist with receiving on the outside to exit the zone.

Every week, this balance is crucial, and this week it needs to be continued as Anderson on the outside has significant input into what happens for Gold Coast.

Only Dawson and Dangerfield rank higher in the league for inside 50 entries, and only Dawson, Gulden and Nick Daicos average more territory gained of the top 15 in that category.

His 28.5 disposals per week ranks him 12th of all players, and over 28% of those disposals contribute to a score for the Suns, ranking number one for Gold Coast. The Bombers can’t afford to leave him off the leash.

The half back bounce.

Gold Coast exits their defensive 50 towards the boundary the third most in the competition. As a reference, Essendon does it the most. This implies that whichever team wins the initial territory forward, the ball will predictably exit wide via rebounds, and the game should be played in straight lines unless someone can switch the play quickly, efficiently, and effectively.

For this, Essendon maintains a balance of foot skills and run-and-carry, with Martin, McGrath, and Redman proficient in both, and Ridley showcasing his kicking skills. In contrast, Gold Coast relies more on foot skills to navigate their way out.

Flanders has been a constant for the Suns in this area, with Sexton and Jeffrey contributing more recently. The other Gold Coast defenders, such as Collins, Ballard, and Uwland, play a more passive role, focusing on their direct matchups. Despite his size, Andrews is the one in the back half who creates run and overlap. However, in multiple games, he’s been asked to be the relief ruckman.

When Essendon has the ball in the back half, it's crucial to see its half-forwards keeping the Suns' half-backs accountable, positioning themselves strategically to assist the players in the middle and punish the Suns defenders if they fail to be accountable.

When Gold Coast regains possession in their defensive zone, it's important to keep the press tight, prevent uncontested marks, force them down the line rather than allowing switches, and close off exits and their vision. This will force their midfield to get back and help move the ball forward.

With ball movement from the back half becoming increasingly important each season, Hardwick’s decision to shift Flanders from midfielder to the half-back line has proven fruitful, especially over the last five games.

Over 41 points have been scored from chains starting in the back half, the 3rd best in the league over this period, with Flanders' 30 disposals playing a significant role in this success.

Of those disposals, almost 72% are uncontested, and 6.5 originate from an uncontested mark, with 3.8 initiating rebounds from the defensive 50.

Excluding the ruckman, who typically leads each team in starting scoring chains, and midfielder Rowell, Flanders ranks as the number one defender for starting scoring chains. However, Essendon has a matchup capable of reducing his effectiveness.

Guelfi has found his role this year as a defending forward and would be an ideal target for Flanders. His successful containment of GWS’ Whitfield highlights his effectiveness against dangerous rebounding defenders, both in applying pressure and forcing them to defend when necessary.

The scoreboard.

Over the last five games, Essendon has shown improvement in defending opposition scores originating from intercepts, with an average of 35.6 compared to the initial six weeks, which stood at 58.1. This aspect will be tested again as Gold Coast ranks number three for scoring from intercepts in the same period, trailing only behind ladder leaders Sydney and Adelaide.

Much of Essendon's efforts to enhance this facet of their game have focused on limiting entries into their defensive third, averaging only 46.4 in the last five games, ranking second during this period.

Meanwhile, Gold Coast sits 11th for inside 50 entries over the same five-game stretch, with their opponents averaging just over 50 a game.

Clearly, the dynamics further up the field, as previously discussed, play a significant role in influencing both teams' defensive metrics.

Now, let's analyse this data from the opposite perspective. Essendon's scoring from intercepts ranks 5th over the last five games, averaging 51.8 points per week. It's hoped that this figure will increase further this week.

Meanwhile, during the same timeframe, the Suns have conceded 48.6 points from intercepts, ranking 14th in this category. This underscores the potential rewards for applying pressure, executing tackles, and generating intercepts, subsequently converting them into points on the scoreboard.

Deep forward.

Both teams' forward lines will heavily challenge their defenders inside the front zone.

Langford, Guelfi, Wright, and Stringer are all in the top 50 for marks inside 50, with Langford number one over the last five games. For Gold Coast, it’s predominantly King, with Long a fair way down the list.

In the last five games, King has had 18 shots at goal from marks, ranked second, while Langford is number one on this list with 21.

Despite discussions about the Bombers' kicking inside the forward zone this season, the last five games have shown significant improvement in ball use and targeting, with no team taking more marks on the lead than Essendon during this period.

The Suns present more danger at ground level in general play than in the air.

First-year recruit Rogers is 8th in the competition for groundball wins inside the forward 50, showing his early potential. Holman, Long, Walter, and Humphrey are well down the list, but over the last five games, Humphrey ranks inside the top 20 for generating shots at goal via general play inside the forward 50.

Meanwhile, Essendon has Guelfi, Gresham, and Langford all averaging over 1.9 groundball wins, all ranked in the top 23 of the competition.

Only Collingwood has more than three players in the top 25 for forward 50 groundball wins.

A look ahead.

As I wrote in my introduction, this begins an extremely difficult and important chapter of Essendon’s season of 2024.

Here are the next six games and where these teams rank in percentage of possessions sourced from contests to this point.

- Gold Coast, 3rd

- Carlton, 5th

- West Coast, 1st

- Geelong, 2nd

- Collingwood, 4th

- Melbourne, 8th

While there is a bye weekend after the Carlton game to take a breather and assess the situation, the real test will be Essendon’s ability to consistently execute the same or similar game style week in and week out against seven different teams, each bringing their unique strengths and preferred contested brand of play.

Go Dons!