Suns vs Bombers Preview

It’s finally ending.

This season really began in November last year, and after a start that offered hope and promise, it now comes to a close in August, far too early for everyone involved, including supporters and fans alike.

Disappointing early results forced a reset, and just as momentum threatened to build, the injuries took hold, bringing weekly setbacks, and by the end, all that remained was another season of what might have been.

Last time out.

If only games went for 60 minutes instead of 80.

For three quarters, Essendon put up, in my view, its best performance of the year while heavily undermanned against a team with top-four aspirations. In that time, they matched their stronger, more fancied opponent in most areas crucial to modern football, but what separates the best from the rest is being able to execute those areas reliably for longer, and that was the ultimate difference in the round 17 game.

For three quarters, the Bombers were able to go toe to toe with Damien Hardwick’s preferred high-transition method, challenge the Suns’ turnover game with ball in hand, stand up to Matt Rowell’s hardball-winning ability, and limit Gold Coast’s capacity for damage from stoppage.

But in the decisive last quarter, when the game demanded one more effort, the toll of the season and the energy required to build a three-point lead with 20 minutes to play began to show, as Gold Coast’s clearance strength took over, their punishment from Essendon turnovers telling, and the demands of end-to-end football saw what had been a genuine chance of an unlikely victory slip away.

What was then…

That Hardwick game style which defined his Richmond era was always going to carry across to the Suns, and was the main reason they sat third with an 8–2 record by Round 11. But since then the returns have dried up, particularly the scoring impact that method is designed to produce.

In their first 10 games, the Suns were punishing opposition turnovers, averaging 15.4 shots at goal from that source and converting those into 57.4 points a week. Since then, the output has dropped to just 11.4 shots and 38.5 points per game, with no potential finalist sitting lower in either category.

Is not now.

A big part of the change has been their frequency of intercepting per opposition possession not being at the same rate, as well as a decline in winning post-clearance ground ball. In that stretch, only Ben Ainsworth and Bailey Humphrey have ranked inside the top 50 forwards in this area.

Obviously, their opponents are doing a better job at defending their turnovers, something we all wished was the case for Essendon.

Writing was on the wall.

Up until Dreamtime, which I see as the tipping point when the injuries really began to take hold down back, Essendon were conceding 13.6 shots at goal from turnovers for an average of 51.6 points, the fifth most at that stage of the season. Since then things have only worsened, and it’s hardly worth comparing against the competition, but if they can at least return to that earlier-season level, or better still, hold the Suns to what their opponents have restricted them to over the last 12 games, it forces Gold Coast to rely on their stoppage game to keep the scoreboard ticking, which has been one of Essendon’s few consistent strengths and a shining light in a year of darkness.

Something to hang the hat on.

Only Sydney are conceding fewer points from clearance losses than Essendon among teams outside finals contention, with 31.5 points the lowest the Bombers have allowed since 2021. That is an impressive number considering the issues that began down back and have since spread into the midfield, but this week’s challenge is a significant one.

With the Suns’ scoring from turnovers falling week to week, they have become increasingly reliant on their clearance game to make up the difference.

Good versus good.

Since Round 11, no team has averaged more points from this source, with their 45 points per game sitting ahead of the Western Bulldogs and GWS, accounting for just over half of their total score, a rate that is unsustainable for a premiership contender, or even a finals contender.

In the last matchup, Essendon were able to hold the Suns to 43 points from stoppages, but the midfield lineup available this week is very different from that clash.

Posing the questions.

Up until half time in that game, Jye Caldwell, Will Setterfield and Sam Durham were able to clamp down on Gold Coast’s primary clearance duo, Captain Noah Anderson and Rowell, restricting them to 11 and six possessions respectively, with only six clearances combined across the opening 40 minutes. That helped the Bombers trail by only 2 in clearance differential at the main break.

With Caldwell and Setterfield unavailable this week, stopping Rowell from winning the inside ball and feeding Anderson on the outside becomes a much bigger challenge.

Rowell comes into the last game of the season winning the 3rd most contests pre-clearance of all midfielders, with only Tom Green and Caleb Serong ahead, which is a big reason Anderson has the 5th most uncontested handball receives as the two combine to get the ball moving. Without two genuine matchups to go against them (will Durham come back in?), is it better to set the game up for Hardwick’s preferred high-transition method rather than turn it into a stoppage contest?

Essendon’s use with ball in hand really “opened up” from Round 12 onwards, with the missing pieces in the back six playing a part as the attack had to compensate for defensive losses on the scoreboard. From that point, the handball game I have already explained on numerous occasions this year introduced more run, carry, and “adventure” than had been the norm under Brad Scott, with the improvement evident in transition effectiveness, particularly from defensive 50.

Over the last two seasons, the AFL average for possession chains starting in defensive 50 and ending inside 50 is 22.8%, with Essendon exceeding that only once up until Round 12, against a lowly ranked Port Adelaide, and averaging just 18.2% in that time.

Post-Round 12, Essendon has bettered the AFL average six times, with last week’s one-in-four chains reaching inside 50 their 5th best rate for the season, and their 4th best coming against Gold Coast at 26.5%, the 6th worst rate the Suns have conceded this year, with three of the other five against finalists. With only 80 minutes left together on the field for this group, they may as well go out “swinging” with all-out attack.

Short sharp notes.

Of all midfielders averaging 25 or more possessions a game, nobody wins more of those possessions contested than Matt Rowell.

Matt Guelfi ranks 5th for tackles inside 50 of all players to have played five or more games.

Earlier I wrote Anderson was ranked 5th for handball receives; Zach Merrett sits 4th on the same list.

Of Ben King’s 4.9 kicks per game, 4.2 are shots at goal, with his 85.7% the highest since shots at goal were first recorded in 1999, Brendan Fevola next at 81% in 2008.

In Gold Coast’s eight losses this year, they have lost the post-clearance groundball battle in six of them. Essendon comes into this game +1.4 for the season in that measurement.

The Bombers sit 18th in converting an inside 50 into a shot at goal, with the Suns 14th, the lowest-ranked team among current finals contenders.

Gold Coast averages the third fewest marks per game, while Essendon concedes the most.

Of all players to have attended 20% or more of their team’s centre bounces since Round 20, Isaac Kako is the youngest at just 19, attending 45% of Essendon’s centre bounces.

“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.”

— Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Go Bombers!