Gee, Sydney has certainly impressed in both games in 2024. Accounting comfortably for two teams that finished in the top four last year, they've hit the ground running with full momentum. But I'll start with this: the game this week shouldn't be one to be scared of.
Yes, the last time Essendon played Sydney at the SCG caused nightmares for the majority of 2022, at least until the return bout at the MCG. But this is an opponent who is very beatable, especially after last year's matchup at Marvel.
A game that the Bombers should've won except for a lapse in one quarter.
Really, Sydney only finished half a game above on the ladder. Officially, it will say one and a half, but the win against Adelaide in Round 23 is really a loss, flattering them to finish 8th.
They only had two wins from ten tries against their fellow finalists and four wins by three or fewer points against teams who missed the top eight.
In the end, winning six of the last seven matches was good enough for a finals appearance.
In the most recent head to head matchup in Round 20, the 37 point lead the Swans were able to get out to ended up two points too many, but it shouldn't have ever been 37 points to begin with.
This game, for me, was a true display of where Essendon has sat for the last three seasons.
When the ball is in Essendon's hands, there are capabilities to hurt the opposition with efficient ball movement to go inside forward 50, and find targets to set up scoring opportunities.
The issue in not winning more games has been when the opposition has the ball and the inability to regain possession. This game rubber-stamped the good and bad.
On average last year, Essendon started 111.1 possession chains a game, ranked only above the wooden spooners.
The Swans' average was 117.6, ranked 9th.
For reference, the number one team was Melbourne with 123.8.
In this head-to-head clash, Essendon would start with the ball 128 times and Sydney 118. This led to an extra 22 inside 50s, unfortunately not converting onto the scoreboard.
The Bombers only had an efficiency of 37% shots per inside 50, down more than 10% compared to the season average.
That can happen sometimes. The outcome doesn't reward the process taken. That was only one part though.
The issue was Sydney's ability to have 27 shots from 47 inside 50s. Their season average was 49.5%, but in this game, they operated at 57%, which would've been almost 4% higher than the top team in Adelaide.
That night, Essendon bled when the ball was in the defensive third.
So I said earlier that Essendon shouldn't be scared of this opponent, and there are multiple reasons as to why.
In Round 20, Essendon won clearances by 13 and contested possessions by 23, that's a great start to winning games against Sydney.
It's a major reason why, in the offseason, Sydney added to the starting 23 with Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, and James Jordan, all players who can help improve that part of their game, and those changes have helped in 2024 so far, even though Adams has missed the first two games to date.
They've also made another change internally over the offseason too, I'll get to that.
Nick Blakey is a major factor in a win or loss here. The Swans so far are rebounding over 80% of their opponents inside 50s, averaging 39.5 rebound 50s a game, Blakey is averaging 7 of them.
He generally takes the kickouts and usually looks to hit up a teammate in a position to receive a handball back and begin transition. The majority of his disposals go forward, using his leg speed and mobility to create overlap.
His matchup will need to have some turn of foot and play a tight body-checking role to hamper him.
This is a job for a lockdown forward who can sacrifice their game for the greater good of the team. Does Hind have this capability in him?
The lack of leg speed was evident against Hawthorn's defensive half runners last week.
Not just for pressure at the source, but also to keep up with them in allowing easy switches and change of direction.
The Davey twins look to have pace at this early stage, and with time can mature to certainly fill a void. In the meantime, Hind can make his presence felt in this area.
Make Blakey aware of what's ahead of him for the night, keep within the rules, but niggle, bump and annoy when the chances are available, and make him defend by using Hind as link option in chains forward.
Finally, Essendon sees the back of Franklin, the finished version, not the back they usually saw when he was running away from them. But it hasn't changed John Longmire's setup in wanting talls in the front half.
He has started with 3 tall targets inside 50 in both matches so far. Amarty and McDonald are the mainstays, with McLean the third, and also the relief ruck. Though Amarty has been subbed out in both games. Against the Demons, he was subbed out in the third quarter, and in the last quarter against the Magpies.
The three talls have worked. They've combined for 9 goals from 17 shots and 10 marks inside 50. As a reminder, in that matchup in round 20 last year, Amarty took six marks inside 50 and kicked four goals for the game, all in the first half.
Two years ago, Longmire began deploying Papley at centre bounces, a strategy that has remained consistent since then.
In 2023, Papley ranked first for Sydney in centre clearances per centre bounce attended. This tactic has not only proven effective in winning clearances but has also enabled Papley to advance into scoring positions unchecked. Essendon's midfielders must be vigilant of this dual threat and understand his intentions.
To counter his influence, it would be best to closely mark him from behind, maintaining arm's reach, throughout the contest.
This defensive approach could be suitable for Caldwell with his size, leg speed and desire to pressure to match Papley.
What had Sydney in winning positions last year was their intercepting of the opposition and making it count on the board, their +8.1 points a game in differential had them ranked 4th.
From early looks so far this season, they've continued to succeed here.
Last week against Premiers Collingwood, they generated 18 shots at goal via turnovers, with 12 shots coming from front half turnovers. When I talked about the 37 points they got out to in the last match up, a large part was their ability to punish, all 5 goals they scored in the second quarter were via turnovers, obviously the reason Essendon was down by 19 points at halftime.
Brad Scott's team selection will be interesting, especially the ruck selection.
Last time Grundy came up against Essendon, he was worked over by two dedicated ruckmen in Draper and Phillips, both forcing him to defend in the back half after the centre bounce. This was a tactic that worked against Melbourne last year and could be something match committee tries again.
After failing to sign Ben McKay in the trade period, Sydney once again sets up with smaller key position defenders this season.
McCartin and Melican have stood up against opposition key sized forwards, but they only stand at 194cm each. Here's an area to exploit aerially.
This can be achieved by quick ball movement when the opportunity arises, but start that ball closer to goal so it doesn't have to travel as far.
Winning centre clearances a start, and creating midfielders turnovers with swift rebound a must.
The internal change the Swans made to improve their weakness in contests around stoppages was to add extra minutes to Isaac Heeney’s rotation there, and he’s been outstanding so far.
In his first two games this season, he’s averaged 27.5 disposals, and his contested possession rate of 56.4%, with 8.5 of them won at ground level, are all a career high.
All the above has helped in his score involvements and inside 50s, also being the best he’s ever managed.
But he has sidekicks too. Warner, Rowbottom, and Gulden have all elevated their numbers also. Rowbottom averages 19 disposals a game and wins over 60% of his possessions contested, the number one ranked midfielder of their mix, eight of those 19 possessions won are at ground level.
Matching Heeney with 8.5 ground ball gets a game is Warner. Both he and Gulden give a balance of being dangers outside, just as much as inside.
That group I just spoke of obviously also influences their entries inside 50, Heeney, Warner and Gulden are contributing over 36% of the teams 58 inside 50s a game, and it’s with clean disposal.
Bar Rowbottom, because of the contested battle he’s forced to play, all the others have a kicking effectiveness of 59.5% and above. Pressure needs to be consistent and influence, first, their choices, and second, cleanliness.
Essendon's performance against Hawthorn was impressive, especially in areas just outside the immediate areas from stoppages, as evidenced by their 47 tackles outside the forward third. However, this upcoming game demands even more from them.
In comparison, Collingwood and Melbourne managed 39 and 41 successful tackles respectively against the Swans in similar areas, while the Swans themselves executed 50 and 57 tackles. This indicates that Essendon not only needs to apply pressure but also needs the resilience to endure it.
All in all, if Essendon can get close to replicating the stoppage and contest numbers I spoke of earlier, and convert more of those opportunities inside 50 into maximum scores, there are four hard earned points within reach here.
Go Dons!
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