Swans vs Bombers Review

Another week.

This week’s game follows a very familiar theme to Essendon’s 2025 season. A performance once again that offered moments of encouragement and promise, intertwined too often with the same issues that were exposed early this year, and have continued to be the main reason for inconsistency on field.

The positives, as usual, are centred around individuals, with at times an ability to balance attack off the back of defence. But it’s the inability to defend for long enough periods, either in game or within quarters, that remains a source of frustration for fans, and no doubt for the players and coaches as well.

As usual, the review will centre on the key performance indicators that were most relevant to what unfolded, highlighting what went right when it did, and just as importantly, what went wrong and the flow-ons from that.

The first three KPIs are all closely linked, with success or failure in both sides of the game, with or without the footy, often hinging on the ability to consistently impact in these areas.

Too easy to play against.

• Essendon took only six uncontested marks in the first quarter, well down on their season average of just under 20. Sydney, by contrast, had 36, almost double both their own average and the AFL average, with 30 of those coming in transition through the back two-thirds of the ground.

• Finding an unpressured outlet every 12.5 disposals meant the game was constantly in motion when Essendon had the ball. For Sydney, it was the complete opposite, as they controlled the tempo and moved the ball forward under much less stress in the first 20 minutes of game time.

• The Swans’ opposition has known since last year their preferred ball movement method, and this year, they have been afforded no such luxuries.

In 2024, Sydney averaged an uncontested mark every 4.06 disposals, but coming into this game, that had blown out to 4.35. By half time on Saturday, that rate had dropped to 3.06.

• While conditions weren’t conducive to high kicking efficiency, the most uncontested marks Essendon has taken in a quarter since Round 11 is 39, coming in the last 20 minutes of Dreamtime. Across the 40 quarters since, the Bombers have gone above the AFL average only 11 times, the fewest of any side in this stretch.

Meanwhile, over that same 40-quarter period, Essendon has conceded uncontested marks above the AFL average on 29 occasions. You might assume injuries have been the catalyst,

but even in the 36 quarters from Round One to Dreamtime, the opposition still managed to reach the average 25 times.

• The 53 uncontested mark differential in the first half between the two teams is the largest in any Essendon half this season.

• No team this year averages one or more uncontested marks per possession chain, but in three of the four quarters on Saturday, Sydney comfortably surpassed that mark.

• It wasn’t until the third quarter that Essendon finally had some influence on Sydney’s ball use. As you can see, the Swans managed only 15 uncontested marks in this term, struggling to find players in space as the game became more contested and chaotic compared to the first half. This forced them into an even 1:1 kick-to-handball ratio, a significant drop from the 1.6:1 ratio they maintained in the first half.

• While the final quarter appeared more intense on the scoreboard, in reality it was more a reflection of Essendon’s ball use than their ability to limit Sydney’s effectiveness. The Swans had 38 more possessions in this period and once again found 30 unpressured marks, replicating the dominance they showed in the first quarter.

The bugbear.

Essendon’s game without the football has been a long-running issue over the years, and it’s once again a major flaw this season. At the heart of it is the team’s inability to have enough say in what the opposition is allowed to do, and the uncontested mark game has been the biggest part of that.

If you’ve read my previews and reviews throughout the year, you’ll know this isn’t just a recent trend or a byproduct of the injury crisis. It was exposed to all 17 other teams in Round One and continued into Round Two. And from there, if you don’t address the weakness, the opposition will keep testing it, looking to exploit it every time they can.

Possessed.

• Here you can see how one team had to do it much harder than the other. Essendon had just 70 uncontested possessions in the first half, well down on their season average, with a differential of almost 50. Sydney, meanwhile, thrived in complete comfort with 147 uncontested possessions, 43 more than their other opponents have allowed. That includes Round Nine against Essendon, where they were kept to just 103.

• Six of the top nine teams on the ladder intercept their opponents at a rate better than the AFL average of 5.43, with only Gold Coast, Geelong, and the Western Bulldogs sitting beneath that line.

If you’re intercepting the opposition at a rate above seven, there’s a reason you are where you are on the ladder, a big shift from Essendon’s 2024 profile, where they were ranked 6th at a rate of 5.07.

Again, this didn’t suddenly become an issue once injuries hit, by Round 12, their average was already 5.85, worse than their current season rate and ranked 16th in the competition.

• Thankfully, in the third quarter the players got to work, intercepting far more regularly. It meant not only did they start with the ball more often, but they did a much better job of keeping field position, turning around almost 450 metres in territory compared to the second quarter.

That shift was reflected in the time in possession numbers: after Sydney controlled 55% and had 23% more than Essendon in the second term, it changed to 42% apiece in the third.

• The Bombers’ main strength in 2025 has been their work at the contest. But once the game is outside, particularly in the opposition’s hands, it’s a different story. In the important third quarter, Sydney had to earn over 38% of their possessions in a contest, a contrast to the previous 40 minutes of football at just 29%.

A pleasant surprise.

Quote taken from my preview.

“Since Round 16, they’ve been the number one team in the competition for stoppage differential (+6.8), and it’s become their most damaging score source, averaging almost 47 of their 84.8 points per game from this area.

Much of the scoreboard damage comes from forward 50 throw-ins, meaning Essendon’s midfielders and defenders need to be alert, first with clear communication on matchups, and then with structure in what are often tight, congested spaces.”

This was my biggest concern coming into the game, it’s been the key factor in Sydney turning their season around, winning five of their previous seven.

• In the last five games, Essendon had given up just over 45 points on average at stoppage, so to hold Sydney to only 11 is an enormous achievement, especially given the Bombers’ depleted midfield rotation, and the near full-strength mix the Swans had onball.

• In the second half, the Bombers won the clearance count by four. From Sydney’s 16 clearances, they were kept completely scoreless, while Essendon generated five shots at goal — though accuracy let them down again, with just one goal and four behinds.

• The turnover game should be the main source of scoring, and it certainly was here. Essendon’s inability to intercept at a better rate in the second term was arguably the most telling factor. Intercepting at less than half Sydney’s rate meant a loss in territory, and any punishment they could serve started too far from goal to be reliable.

• Defending turnovers has been a problem all year, not helped by the growing injury toll through the midfield and back half, but if there’s one positive, it’s that the team still wants to attack with the ball in hand. Since the bye, the Bombers are averaging 11.6 shots at goal from turnover, a number that would rank 12th across the season. The issue is simply creating enough of those chances.

Yep, another week.

I have my frustrations this week, as you’ve just read, with even more centred on the structural changes to the setup in the first half, which only made things harder. But after half-time, with adjustments made, the young and inexperienced lineup, which has brought effort throughout this injury-hit stretch, once again showed its competitiveness to the contest.

The trip away, the first for six players, looked to have a galvanising effect. Hopefully, the energy and intensity we saw here can carry through to the end of the year.