A few weeks back, I had some great questions from Blake on X (Twitter) asking about the Essendon forward mix and how it looks different compared to the highest scoring teams, and then what it would take to improve, either by targeting personnel or, by changing the way it currently works.
It mind sound silly to begin with, but I will start by saying that my first priority to improve scoring opportunities isn't with the forward group and the players that lineup there.
For me, it starts outside of that area, the middle third of the ground.
To be even more specific, the middle third of the ground without the football.
Let me explain.
Attack has been Essendon's "A" game for a while now.
In 2023 Essendon ranked 6th for marks inside 50 per inside 50 entry, only behind Geelong, Richmond, Collingwood, Brisbane and Adelaide.
Add to that, Essendon would rank 8th at shots at goal per inside 50 entry, equal with preliminary finalist GWS, and above other finalists in Carlton, Melbourne and St. Kilda.
There are a lot of teams who want to be as good as Essendon in these areas.
So going inside and finding a target isn't a major issue, and generating a shot isn't a major issue.
The improvement can come in the versatility to generate shots in different ways.
I just spoke about finding a target inside 50 and having a shot for goal. That's one way of scoring, another is via general play.
That's shooting for goal but not from a mark. Examples such as picking up a loose ball on the ground from a marking contest, a handball over the top to a player in the goal square, or a stoppage where the ruckman taps to a teammate and snaps at goal.
Toby Greene had the most shots at goal via general play last year with 59 in total.
Jake Stringer had 34, the highest ranked player for Essendon, but, ranked 17th in the competition.
The next best was Jye Menzie with 26, ranked 38th.
They are the only 2 players from Essendon in the top 50.
Carlton the only finalist to have 2 or less.
The other finalists in GWS and Melbourne had 3.
Collingwood and St. Kilda 4
Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Sydney 5.
Adelaide missed the finals but had 4 players also in the category.
Now you may say that those teams have "those types of players" to exploit that, but I see it as the way those teams play, allows those players to exploit that.
Most scoring opportunities occur through quick rebound from intercepting the opponent.
When there's an intercept possession, chaos often ensues due to the sudden change in possession and then momentum.
The team that intercepts the ball can quickly transition from defending to attacking, catching the opposing team off guard.
This can lead to players scrambling to readjust their positioning and look for their matchup, allowing the intercepting team to capitalise on the confusion and create scoring opportunities.
Doing this closer to your goal usually means you're more likely to keep the ball in motion, rather than play more conservative when further from your goals.
It also opens up the range of players who can hit the scoreboard.
These are the top ranked teams in generating a score from intercepting the ball between the arcs (the two fifty metre lines)
Sydney
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
GWS
Geelong
Collingwood
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Melbourne
Carlton
St. Kilda
Essendon next on the list in 12th.
These are the top teams in generating a score from intercepting in their forward 50.
Brisbane
Geelong
Adelaide
Sydney
Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
Essendon once again 12th.
These are the top teams in generating scores from intercepting in the middle to front third of their goal.
Brisbane
Sydney
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
GWS
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Melbourne
Collingwood
Essendon 13th
Improving this part of your game style not only helps forwards, but midfielders also.
Essendon would like to see more midfielders have shots for goal than both Jye Caldwell and Nic Martin had with 17 each in 2023.
It's an advantage once again the top teams have.
Collingwood had 3 midfielders in the top 100 players with Jordan De-Goey and the Daicos brothers joining Hill and Mcreery as forwards who could punish.
Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly added potency to Greene, Daniels, Bedford and Lloyd.
Change, tweak, improve or fix this part of the game and a wider range of options to score opens up.
You would have heard the words "front half game" and "time in forward half" being spoken about in recent times.
Two areas that Essendon could improve on in 2024 and beyond.
Front half game and time in forward half are important as it indicates a team's ability to maintain pressure on the opposition by keeping the ball in their attacking zone.
Teams with a high time in forward half typically have more control over the game, thus creating more scoring opportunities as they are constantly threatening their opponent's goal.
Port Adelaide ranked number one for time in forward half and Melbourne ranked second for time in forward half differential, both of these teams were top 4 for average shots at goal a game and top 2 for inside 50s.
But to start with, all of that is reliant on one area that initially gives you the territory.
Without this, you cannot have the front half or time in forward half to begin with.
Clearance.
Is this where a change of lineup can assist with a change of system?
Changing the forward lineup by targeting free agents or trading players can certainly improve the last link in the chain.
But that last link is counting on what's happening further up the chain.
If you can get your hands on the ball first, and feed your teammates at stoppages through clearance, then you're off to the best start.
You begin with the ball, you dictate what happens first and you set up the field to take advantage of that.
It feeds your front half game, you command what the opposition have to do in order to win it back.
I believe it's a more important area to target with talent rather than the forward line.
One thing I'm adamant about is only one dedicated ruckman in the lineup, with the second, and maybe even third ruck option coming from your forward half.
Goldstein has come over this year to assist Draper and Bryan as ruck options, with Visentini a rookie with a long way to go early in his career.
Of course Goldstein is much closer to the end of his football journey, but even at the age of 34 and into 35 last year, he was able to average 79.3% time on ground and attended 70% of North Melbourne's ruck contests.
As a comparison, Draper played 76.7%, and contested 60.7% of Essendon's ruck contests with Bryan at 52.8% time on ground and 40% attendance.
To all our eyes, Draper seems very unlikely to be part of the lineup through the early part of the season, so Goldstein and Bryan will be the choices.
If Todd could continue to play even 70% time on ground, a relief ruck really only needs to be in that role for about 6 minutes a quarter.
Couldn't that come from Wright or Weideman?
For me, there's enough tall targets ahead of the ground with Langford, Jones, Stringer and Caddy to cover when Wright or Weideman need to leave that area.
The other advantage is it gives a different look to the forward half, unpredictability to your opposition can be dangerous and dynamic in helping you score.
The interesting one is Bryan.
It will be asking a lot of a 22 year old with just 14 games experience to play 70% or more if Goldstein wasn't available.
Is this where Weideman fits in?
Tall forward targets don't just do their work in the forward 50, they're also required to be a beacon as an outlet kick when the opposition has put a halt on ball movement and overlap.
Sometimes you're left with no other option but to search out for those beacons.
Now those targets have a list of priorities, starting with being able to keep the ball in the area, whether that's by marking it, bringing it to ground or, most importantly, not allowing the opposition to take it back.
Majority of the time, all the above needs to be achieved while being outnumbered.
Is this something that can be relied upon from Langford, Jones or Stringer when Wright is relieving Bryan for longer periods?
Weideman may not be the final answer long term, his inconsistency to punish the opposition in 2023 saw him spend time in the VFL and then time as a defender.
Here he may get an opportunity for a reprieve if Bryan is the dedicated ruckman.
Forward 50 groundball is defined by winning contested possession at ground level as opposed to in the air, it's where the fleet footed small and medium forwards need to get to work in order to create scoring opportunities, maintain pressure and prevent rebounds.
In 2023, Essendon ranked 8th for forward 50 groundball per inside 50, with Kyle Langford the highest ranked player at equal 8th.
Phenomenal effort.
His 2.1 average a game has him well above the next best Essendon player in Stringer, 18 spots lower.
But this is a role usually fulfilled by a smaller player and not 2 players who are listed at 192cm.
Here are the top 7 players for average inside 50 groundball possessions in 2023.
Petracca
D. Martin
T. Greene
Rankine
Heeney
Papley
B. Daniels
Petracca the next tallest listed behind Langford and Stringer at 187cm.
Ranked equal 9th in the list is Jade Gresham.
Gresham obviously now has an opportunity to fill a requirement, but he needs others to help.
After Stringer, the next best Essendon player is Menzie, equal 47th on the list, there is a major void between Gresham and Menzie, let's not forget, Gresham's numbers are from St. Kilda, a team who ranked 3rd in forward 50 groundball per inside 50.
One of the major reasons as to why?
Gresham had assistance in Dan Butler, 182cm and Jack Higgins, 178cm, 2 players designed to maximise that part of the ground.
By playing one dedicated ruckman rather than two, you have an opportunity for a better balanced attacking half with more mobility at ground level, not just in scoring or winning the ball, but also in keeping it in the vicinity via tackle pressure.
But it's not a job for just one, or even two, it's probably a job for three.
Earlier I spoke about front half game and time in forward half. Another reason behind this is the tackle pressure that's applied in order to keep it there.
One of the reasons why Port Adelaide were the number one ranked team of time in forward half and Melbourne number two in differential is off the back of that tackle pressure inside 50.
Of the top 50 players who played 5 games or more, the Demons had 3 players and the Power 4 for average tackles inside 50.
GWS had 5 players.
Essendon had 2, Stringer at 23 and Snelling at 44.
Now as much as it's on Menzie, Guelfi and others to improve their own effectiveness there, it's also on the coaches to select a more balanced team to help them.
In the end, you should always be striving in the pursuit to improve scoring capabilities, whether that's by bringing in more talented options via trade, targeting players at the draft, changing the set up in your forward half or, the methodology of how you play and want to attack.
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