This is a continuation of last weeks post that was looking at Adelaide through to GWS, including Essendon, on what changed from 2022 to 2023.
What worked, what didn't, and what question marks each team has going into this season.
If you haven't read part one, here's the link
Hawthorn
Hawthorn's 7 wins and 16 losses shows the inconsistency that the team went through in 2023.
Although with very good reasons.
Overall average age of the Hawks list was 18th in the competition and overall average games played of the entire list also 18th.
40.7 average games was clearly the most inexperienced, Adelaide next at 51.7.
This was a major reason as to why there were ups and downs over the course of 23 games.
2 massive wins against the grand finalists on the MCG with an average winning margin of just under 5 goals shows what potential there is there already.
Only Melbourne would be the other team to defeat both Collingwood and Brisbane.
3 losses by a total of 6 points, 2 of them coming back to back in rounds 5 and 6 to GWS and Adelaide helped improve the confidence of such a young team, which at that point, had only won 1 of their first 4 games and had an average losing margin of 74 points.
This will be a target they look to improve on, staying in games for longer.
There was a noticeable change in the way they played from the previous year, and it was in how they handled the football more than anything else.
351.3 disposals a game became 386.7, a jump from 11th to 2nd. It was done using more handballs than kicks.
59.8% kicks became 54.4%, a change from 11th for handballs to number one.
251.7 uncontested possessions a game, the most by anyone in 2023, is usually off the back of a higher percentage of kicks.
They did uncontested football in a different way.
But did they "over handle" the ball and it became too hard to defend once they lost it?
The second worse team at defending a turnover or intercept becoming a score.
Melbourne
Here's a team that has their process in order, the outcome is the final piece of the puzzle.
When you're the number one team for the year in these areas,
Inside 50 differential at 8.9 more than your opponents a game.
Contested possession differential, winning by 10.4 a game.
Intercept possession differential, 2.7 up on your opponent weekly.
Intercepts per opposition possession.
Lastly, metres gained. A massive 300 more metres in territory a game, you're doing a lot right.
Unfortunately it was the end result of this work which let the team down.
Once it went inside 50, it just didn't result in the maximum.
The most inside 50s but only able to generate a scoring shot 15th best in the league and
could only mark it the 12th best per inside 50.
Add to those, it was rebounded back out the 7th worst.
Maybe one of the factors was the forward half dynamic changing too often.
Van Rooyen, only 20 years of age, played the most games of their key forwards in 2023, he's only played 20 games in his career.
Fritsch was only there for 17 games, backmen Petty and Smith spent time forward in different stages, but each only played 14 games, McDonald 8, Brown 7.
Small forwards kicked a large percentage of the score.
Pickett 37, Chandler 24, Melksham 20, Neal Bullen 19 and Spargo 11 were only matched by Fritsch 38, Van Rooyen 28 and midfielder come forward Petracca with 28.
I don't see it as a big deal if this is the area where the improvement is needed.
North Melbourne
When you're starting out at such a low level it's not surprising to see such a big improvement to overall scoring.
2023 saw the Roos improve 19.44 points a game.
But like I said, the base was so low.
What saw improvement were small wins, quarters won.
25 quarters won against 20 of the previous year and the average losing margins became 35.1 from 54.
They were able to get a good look at the list, 43 players were used, the most by anyone and the second most used in the last 9 seasons.
Nick Larkey the shining light up forward.
71 goals at 71% accuracy had him the most accurate goal kicker of the top 100 players.
That helped the team be the 2nd most accurate kick for goal.
He'll need support next to him though.
2.8 marks a game inside 50 had him equal 4th in the competition, next best for the Kangaroos was Charlie Comben with 1.3, but he was struck down with injury only playing 7 games.
The midfield was also struck by injury.
Jye Simpkin averaged 26.6 disposals the previous year, alongside him was Luke Davies Uniacke with 24.9, both played 21 games.
2023 saw Simpkin drop to 20.7 disposals and only play 18 games while Uniacke only played 14.
Port Adelaide
From a ladder point of view, Port Adelaide were the second biggest risers behind GWS, going from 11th to 3rd by round 24 off the back of winning 7 more games.
Their scoring went up by almost 2 goals a game and was the reason for the extra 7 wins, because it certainly wasn't the defensive side.
Bottom 4 in both opposition scoring shots per inside 50 and goals per inside 50 tells a lot.
14.2 one on one contests in the defensive half was the 5th worst, and then losing 31.7% of them made them clear worst of the year.
Obviously this was a target to improve on with personnel over the off season rather than in system, because outside of that area, the system worked.
It all started at centre bounce, number 2 for centre clearances and 3rd for inside 50s, that gave them the territory.
18.8 front half one on ones was the best in the competition.
Once inside 50 it made it extremely difficult to get it out.
The second best team behind Brisbane in shots per inside 50, though accuracy could've been much better than the 3rd worst.
Like Brisbane, Port didn't mess around with the ball. Kicking 61.5% of the time and taking the most ground with their kicks.
Richmond
The Tigers took the biggest hit to their points profile losing on average 23.02 a game.
Most of it coming through the loss of their ability to score, almost 3 goals worse off from 2022.
Of course the injury to Tom Lynch was a big factor.
He kicked 63 goals from 19 games the previous season, an average of 3.3 a game, number one in the league, but only ran out on the park 4 times in 2023.
The high transition game that has been successful for them for such a long time was still there, the pay off in having a reliable target who could cash in was missing though.
There was also a drop off defensively allowing far too many opportunities for their opponents to go inside 50.
57 inside 50s and 27 shots at goal had them the 3rd most in both areas.
Will they persist with what has been successful for them for so long with a new coach at the helm?
St. Kilda
2 extra wins compared to 2022 saw St. Kilda jump from 10th to 6th.
But it wasn't off the back of scoring more.
In true Ross Lyon style, it was about defending, and making it harder for the other team in every aspect.
St. Kilda was ranked 2nd best for opposition disposals per inside 50.
If you want to move it, it's not going to be easy.
On average it took their opponents 16.16 possessions to generate a shot at goal, ranked best.
If you want to play direct, it's not going to be easy.
92.5 marks in the middle and back half, 82.6 of them uncontested, was the most in 2023 for both categories.
If you play a high possession game, it's not going to be easy.
The Saints games featured the most uncontested possessions between both teams.
If you want to play a contested game, it's not going to be easy.
There are pitfalls to playing that way though.
It makes it more difficult for you to score.
Only the bottom 3 teams on the ladder needed more possessions to go inside 50, and more possessions to generate a shot at goal than St. Kilda.
Only 4 other teams had to move the ball further up the ground to do that than the Saints.
Will the shackles be loosened a little in 2024?
Sydney
The Swans lost over 2 goals from their overall score as well as 3 and half wins compared to 2022, realistically, finishing 8th on the ladder flattered them.
Only 2 wins from 10 tries against their fellow finalists, and 4 wins by 3 or less points against teams who missed the eight.
In the end, winning 6 of their last 7 was good enough. But remember, the win in round 23 over Adelaide shouldn't have happened, if that result was correct, it would have seen them finish 9th.
How they improve their inside game as well as clearance game will be hugely important against the better teams.
15th at both stoppage clearance and contested possession differentials won't compete with teams like Melbourne, Brisbane and Carlton who are top 5 in both.
Their big asset comes in intercepting and making it count on the board.
+8.13 points a game in score differential from that area, the 4th best overall.
They'll want that to continue but happen from further up the ground than the defensive 50, which was the case last year.
West Coast
Another extremely tough year for the Eagles following on from 2022.
The average losing margin rose to 64.4 points from 49.2
When you're averaging 116+ points against, winning is realistically impossible.
The year started and ended much better than the middle.
A round one loss by 5 points and a round two win by 19 against Preliminary Finalists GWS got hopes up, unfortunately it would be 16 losses before the next win, with 5 of them by 100 points or more.
Round 20 it finally turned around with a win against North Melbourne, followed by a 1 point loss to Essendon, and in round 23, a win against the Bulldogs.
On field they are a long way off major goals and it's hard to know where to start for improvement.
Name changes to the line up most likely the beginning back on the right track.
Western Bulldogs
This is an interesting case study.
The numbers jump off the page in a lot of key performance indicators to winning the ball.
But first.
Wins against Brisbane, Carlton and GWS as finalists were then spoiled by losing to 3 of the bottom 4 teams in Gold Coast, Hawthorn and West Coast by a combined total of 17 points.
Those 3 extra wins would have seen them rise to 5th on the ladder.
Instead, they missed the 8 by half a game.
Now some of the numbers.
6th for disposals.
3rd for contested possession differential.
2nd for contested possession won at ground level differential.
6th for uncontested possession differential.
2nd for centre clearances.
1st for stoppage clearances.
3rd for tackles.
6th for inside 50s.
4th for inside 50 differential.
Why doesn't it pay off better than 12 wins?
Do they make it count on the scoreboard?
13th for percentage of disposals being by foot.
13th for metres gained per disposal.
10th for marks per inside 50.
13th for shots at goal per inside 50.
Do they do enough work in disrupting the opposition from scoring when they get their opportunity?
49.3 inside 50s to their opponents is the 3rd least in 2023, unfortunately, the opposition marks it 23.4% of the time, the 5th most, and shots once inside 50 are at 48.2%, the 7th worst.
No finalist is in that category.
See, interesting case study.
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