Firstly a description on what each area means, then an overview and finally what's most important and why.
Intercepts
Intercept Mark:
Any mark taken from an opponent’s kick.
Intercept Possession:
Any possession that is won that breaks an opposition chain.
Score from Intercept:
A score that results from an unbroken chain after an intercept.
Stoppages
Stoppage:
Set pieces where the ball is returned to play after a goal, an out of bounds or a ball up being called. There are three stoppages; Centre Bounces, Ball-Ups and Throw-Ins. Additionally, throw-ins and ball-ups are also referred to as around the ground stoppages.
Score from Stoppage:
When a side scores after moving the ball in an unbroken chain from a clearance.
Overview from intercept differentials
•11 teams in the positive for intercept differential
•1 team breaks even
•9 of those teams are in the positive for score differential from intercepts
•7 of those teams make the top 8 in 2023
•Only Adelaide and Geelong finish outside the top 8
•Only Carlton finishes with a positive from intercept differential and a negative in scores from intercepts differential
•Only the Western Bulldogs finish with a negative intercept differential but a positive in scores from intercept differential.
•5 teams end in a negative at intercept differential AND scores from intercept differential. Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast Eagles
•4 of those teams occupied the bottom 4 of the ladder in 2023
Overview from stoppage differential
•5 teams are in the positive or break even at stoppage clearance differential.
•Collingwood, St. Kilda and Sydney the only finalists of 2023 that are not in a positive for stoppage clearance differential.
•9 teams are in the positive or break even for both stoppage clearance differential and scores from stoppage clearance differential.
•4 of those teams didn't make the finals
•The Premiers Collingwood, were the 4th worst team at scores from stoppage clearance differential.
•Only 5 teams are in the positive for all intercept and stoppage differentials as well as scores from intercept and stoppage differentials
•4 of those teams made the finals. Brisbane, GWS, Port Adelaide and Melbourne.
•Adelaide is the only team in the positive for all categories that didn't make the finals.
Why scoring from intercept is MORE important than scoring from stoppage.
Here's some basic numbers to start with.
The AFL average for stoppages a game in 2023 was 74.4.
In 2022 it was 73.4.
In 2021 70.2
Thats 74.4 opportunities you have of scoring from that source.
Example, you win the clearance from a ball up on the wing and go all the way to score a goal in an unbroken chain using 2 handballs and 2 kicks.
Scoring from stoppage should be a bonus.
You go into the forward 50, look for a target, cannot connect with that target, your next priority is to keep the ball in the area to win it back by intercepting your opponent or, hold it in the area and force a stoppage at worse.
Or, it's a centre bounce and it's 4 versus 4 in the centre square and even numbers ahead.
It's what I call a coin flip.
You have just as much chance of getting it out of there as they do.
But the average goals kicked in a game in 2023 was 12.1, so including centre bounces at the start of each quarter, that's 16.1 chances of scoring from that area.
You have to consider where most stoppages are located for scoring.
Usually in your forward half or even closer to goal.
It's normally expected that a stoppage in that area will see you outnumbered by at least 1, 2 or even 3 players making it harder to score.
How many opportunities do you get to score from intercept?
Well the AFL average for a teams possessions in 2023 was 355.4.
2022 was 353.2
2021 was 359.8
You ultimately had last year 355.4 opportunities to intercept the ball from your opponent a game.
They win possession, you take it off them.
If we look at the 2023 Grand Final.
Brisbane was only able to generate 49 intercepts from Collingwood's 335 possessions.
Conversely Collingwood was able to generate 60 intercepts from Brisbane's 295 possessions.
That's Brisbane only winning the ball back every 6.83 possessions off Collingwood versus Collingwood winning it from Brisbane every 4.91.
2 possessions may not seem a lot but consider those possessions as two 50 metre kicks, that can be a gain of 100 metres territory in your favour.
Possessions in Collingwood's forward half 129,
Brisbane 73
Possessions in Collingwood's back half 123
Brisbane 127
Inside 50 entries
Collingwood 57.
Brisbane 43.
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