Looking forward

For the last 3 years, i have not been concentrating on the wins, losses, percentage or ladder position for Essendon.

I've been concentrating on the methods involved.

That's not changing this year either.

"Process over Outcome"

The concept of “process over outcome” emphasizes the importance of focusing on the journey, the methods, and actions rather than fixating on the end result.

Don't worry what the outcome is, if the right processes are in place and repeated regularly, then we can look at the outcome.

At the moment, Essendon isn’t a team that can concentrate solely on the final result, it has to put all emphasis on the procedure first, the process that impacts on the outcome.

Inadequacies in the fixture can, and most likely will, affect the ladder position, percentage can be reliant on weather conditions and wins and losses controlled by umpires and accuracy.

But what Essendon does have a say in is what happens in moments leading up to those.

In my opinion, we haven't seen the full capabilities of this list with the past set up and system that has gone together with it.

I don't know if certain players are "good enough"

I don't know what "ceiling" some can reach yet.

Not until I see something that gives these guys an opportunity to show their absolute maximum.

This is why David Rath's appointment is exciting.

Rath's experience as football strategist is the reason he's become Coach of Innovation and Strategy over the offseason.

He was instrumental in the prolonged Hawthorn success that netted a premiership in 2008 and then a three peat of Premiership success alongside coach Clarkson.

One of his assets in experience is as a biomechanist, which is the study of the parameters of human motion and of physics of the human anatomy.

This should help provide analyses of how the players can improve their sports performance, whether through helping lessen the stress that lead to injuries or improve the efficiency on skills such as kicking.

During his time at Hawthorn, he turned the team into the league's best kickers.

On the strategic side, I would firstly expect a joining between analysts, coaches and players to bring a set up and system that suits the team list.

Then an innovative way of executing it.

Remember "Clarko's Cluster" ?

Rath was instrumental in a shift from a man on man defensive set up in defending the middle of the ground and changed it to a zoning defensive set up, now used by most teams.

In recent times, or realistically, for far too long, Essendon has struggled to defend without the football, ultimately choosing to defend with the ball in hand, defending by denial I call it.

This is one major reason as to why I don't know the full capabilities on this list right now.

Can Archie Perkins truely show us the damage he can do to the opposition?

Can you imagine what he can do if Essendon was to win the ball back off the opposition on a more regular basis and he has the opportunity to lose his opponent in the chaos that ensues from that? Dustin Martin made a killing off that, but only once Richmond changed what it looked like in 2017, now Dusty could produce the promise he was always talked about.

Essendon shouldn't scared of a contest game, a game where there are stoppages, a game where the ball doesn't always have to leave the immediate area.

Essendon aren't a poor stoppage team, only down -1.3 differential around the ground at stoppage. Its not great, but its not poor.

An issue lies in not being able to generate more stoppages, only 43.8 a game, the least in the competition.

What ends up happening is that the ball is then always in transition, it's always moving.

Essendon games have the 4th most transitions from one inside 50 to the other inside 50.

That is going to take a toll on fitness levels over 23 weeks.

I can only imagine the GPS data on the amount of kilometres covered.

The 3 teams who have more transitions are Richmond, GWS and Gold Coast.

Yet they still have 49.3, 48.8 and 52.4 stoppages a game.

Lets take a breath...

Now that Ben McKay has been acquired, I would expect a more one v one defensive set up behind the ball.

But I don't expect the ball to go to those one v ones as "pure" as it has tended to do.

The work ahead will be extremely important in that.

I can envision under Scott year 2 and Rath, a tighter midfield zone with less dangerous areas to "get out" from with the end game being a slow down of opposition ball movement and more decisions to be made under duress.

The "first down" yardage (NFL fans know what I mean) Essendon give up, needs to be to less dangerous areas.

Pushed wide and indirect, forcing them to a part of the ground that only offers a long kick to a crowded area and then gives the midfield zone time to get to that area while referencing an opponent.

The layers to the defensive set up will then be tighter and in turn individual players will have more teammates to look to for support.

Zach Reid being fully fit helps this set up.

He helps McKay in the air and he helps slow down the ball movement of the opposition in that when they look up, they see a 205cm opponent ahead.

Reid helps Jordan Ridley become even more damaging in the air as a 3rd man up option and the rebound that can eventuate from that.

Its not Mackay or Reid on their own, it's the combination of the two together.

Now picture this. The opposition is at half back in the corridor.

The Essendon zone between them and their forward 50 has saturated the area with players.

They look up and see Todd Goldstein directly ahead.

They see Reid, they see Ridley, they see McKay.

The decision then becomes:

Do I go long to that area to a 50/50 or do I want to keep the ball in our hands and try and go around them?

One way he kicks to the tall marking options, the other way he goes the longer way to get forward giving time for those tall targets ahead to roll across.

The corridor should be in Essendons control without the football.

The flow on effect by saturating the midfield and corridor with more numbers thus tightening the zone is that players in those areas have less work to do, less metres to cover.

I don't have an issue being outnumbered ahead of the ball.

3 forwards versus 4 backs, 3 versus 5, 2 versus 4 etc.

Because it allows Essendon a better chance of defending and a better chance of winning the ball back.

Now that the ball is back in your hands, it becomes about work rate and decision making, not just with the ball, but for the opposition who doesn't have the ball.

Theres no point winning it or winning it back and then just returning from whence it came.

In situations where the opponent has extra numbers ahead of you, it's on you to use the players in your vicinity to move it forward in order to even the numbers ahead and make the opposition's extras have to make a decision to come forward, or stay back as your numbers approach.

This is an example of the chaos that can occur and help players like Perkins punish them for the wrong decisions.

You only need that defender to make one incorrect decision in that split second, and the doubt has already crept in for the next time a similar situation occurs.

Because punishing off intercept is reliant on decision making and then ball use, Nic Martin for mine should be given every opportunity hurt the opposition.

For a 22 year old who is realistically now, only going through his second full preseason (remember he was added to the list in the preseason of 2022) to have the second highest time on ground of any player up to the age of 22 last year, is truly a phenomenal start to a career.

I can see his average of 22 disposals from 2023 lifting again.

He predominantly played wing and outside but having Nic around the ball as a full time midfielder, becoming that first receive out of stoppage and congestion will have even more impact going forward, literally and figuratively.

Imagine Nic front facing towards goal, seeing the field ahead with vision and hitting up leading targets or dictating where the forward should go to for space.

Taking those 12.6 kicks he averaged to 18, 20 even 22.

Upping the 2.7 inside 50 entries to 4, 5, 6 a game. Now we're excited.

If you've read one of my earlier posts on Ben Hobbs then by now you'll already have understood how highly I rate him.

Everything I mentioned is a stepping stone to what I think he can bring to the system, the change to the past set up.

Right now he is unique to the group.

In my eyes he's purely an inside player who fights above his weight category in trying to win the ball, stop the opposition winning it or, them winning it cleanly.

Him being purely inside has a flow effect in the set up.

Firstly it will free up Captain Zach Merrett to play a more outside role with the advantage being Zach can use his vision, decision making and skills to bring players into the play.

Secondly it will add versatility to the midfield mix depending on weekly matchups for players like Will Setterfield. who can concentrate on the oppositions key ball winner, which can then help in coverage for Darcy Parish to go ball hunting, and Jye Caldwell to decide if he needs to go inside or outside for team balance.

When you start playing against better teams, better set up teams, ball movement becomes a lot more difficult.

Sometimes long and down the line is all that's needed.

Sometimes 50 metre kicks to a pack is all that's available. Thats ok if that's what's on offer, take it.

Players ahead need to be aware to that.

Beacons like Peter Wright, Sam Weideman, Harry Jones, Nate Caddy and the rucks in Goldstein, Sam Draper and Nick Bryan need to be magnets that draw the football and magnets to their teammates to get underneath them.

They must contest the ball in the air.

Priority one is to mark it.

Two, is to make sure the opposition doesn't mark it, and that the ball ends up at ground level.

Earlier I talked about saturating the midfield with players. Parish, Hobbs. Martin, Merrett, Setterfield, Durham, Caldwell, Perkins, Tsatas, Gresham and Duursma (I'll get to Jade and Xavier and what they can bring in a different post soon)

Another advantage to keeping it in the area and having that group cover less territory is the ability to then get to more contests ahead of the field when needed, especially in situations when the only way forward, is long to a contest, and a contest which will most likely be to an outnumber.

That's finals football, it's contested, and working hard to even up or, outnumber the opposition at more contests than them.

(I'll detail, compare and explain what finals football looks like versus the regular season in another post soon)

There will be many more things that I will be concentrating on throughout the season alongside everything I have just written, all with the goal of ultimately improving the outcome of the final result.

The wins, percentage and ladder position.

Bring

It

On