“Reconnaissance.”
Here’s a quick review of the round six matchup looking at what could be a factor for this week.
The biggest takeaway was the first-half dominance Essendon had, with the front half game that the players talked about over the preseason on display. While this is usually off the back of winning the initial clearance, in this game it was about winning post-clearance contests and intercepting the ball back from Adelaide.
“Front half assault.”
The Crows started 75 possession chains from their defensive half, but only 15 reached their forward 50, with nine progressing within 25 metres of goal in the first 40 minutes of play.
Of 156 possessions during that period, 116 of them were in the back half of the ground as Essendon dominated time in forward half.
The intercept game was strong, winning the ball back every 4.3 Adelaide possessions, a rate far superior to the season average of 4.91.
Helping with intercepting the ball back was the tackle pressure applied around contests, with the Bombers applying 51 tackles in a half of football. The only issue was the reward on the scoreboard, both For and Against, as a five-point lead didn’t do any justice to the process taken at that point, something that they’ve been accustomed to unfortunately lately.
“Tactical breakdown.”
The second half showed what can happen when they stray from their motivation.
The Crows only entered their front third 16 times in the first 40 minutes, but the next 40 they went inside 27 as Essendon’s tackle pressure couldn’t back up what it prevented earlier, as they could only put the clamps on another 29 times from that point on.
“Frontline fortifications.”
One area to look for improvement this time is effectiveness and efficiency in the front half, with an expectation of what it may be like considering what Adelaide had to do to save itself.
While purely looking at the numbers of 62 inside 50 entries for only seven marks doesn’t read well, Adelaide’s strategy of flooding their defence was their only choice under the barrage that came its way early.
Having experienced this last time, they need to be prepared that it may happen again. If there’s an advantage now, it’s that Marvel Stadium’s dimensions are wider than Adelaide Oval’s dimensions, hopefully allowing for more movement in the front half for forwards to work with.
“Arsenal of attack.”
Even though the Crows haven’t hit the same heights of last season in being the number one scoring team of 2023, there’s potential in the front half to cause significant problems and quickly. Last year they averaged 29.3 shots at goal a game for an average score of over 95 points, this season has them averaging 22.9 with an average score of 81.7.
This potential to kick a score comes from a variety of sources, while there’s a good balance coming from the front half or starting in the back half. Their height in their marking targets in the front half of Walker, Fogarty, Himmelberg and a returning Thilthorpe will pose a real danger that will stretch the height down back of McKay and Laverde and in the end, force Ridley to have to lockdown on one instead of him being what i would prefer him to be, an intercept defender.
Walker has taken his time to hit full fitness and get continuity this year, but his last five games showcase the potential danger he can pose. He’s currently ranked 4th for the most one-on-ones in the front half and has a winning percentage of 25%. With his career accuracy rate of over 55% and Fogarty’s 2024 rate of over 60%, Essendon will want to limit the number of shots at goal from these two.
In the Crows' last five games, their opponents have struggled to effectively rebound from their own back half. Adelaide is currently ranked number four for stopping opposition rebound 50s and number one for stopping opposition scores beginning in the back half, with their opponents only averaging just over 18 points from there.
Transitioning consistently and gaining rewards from that has been challenging. Let's see if the Bombers can maintain their current average of 35 points from this source, currently the 8th best.
One player having a major impact on how the ball is coming out of Adelaide's front half is Keays. In my preview of the round six match, I wrote about the potential concerns regarding the multiple roles Keays plays. One of his tasks is to push up the ground to assist at stoppages and become a link in possession chains forward. After this work, he uses his speed and fitness to sprint back to goal to either help outnumber or, even the numbers up ahead.
His efforts are capped off by his impact on the scoreboard. Of his 16.8 possessions averaged since round 13, almost 66% are contested and over 38% of them have been part of scores. His groundball work covers both inside 50 and beyond, with his own rewards including eight goals in that time.
“Fortify the defence.”
Adelaide’s front half hasn’t been to standard for the majority of the year but defensively the average score against from last year of 81.6 has become 77.8.
The last five games have them number one for opposition marks inside 50 per inside 50 with only 9.8 marks inside the area on average a game, aerially they’ve been able to win the ball back 15.6 a game, so the Bombers have to be smarter with ball in hand going forward.
The last five games have seen Essendon’s opposition take 17.8 intercept marks, the 2nd most in five games and with shots at goal per inside 50 on a downward spiral now ranked 14th, as well as the likelihood of seeing Adelaide push back with numbers to help defend, target selection as well as having the players who can at worst, bring the ball to ground for smalls to keep it in area will be paramount.
Earlier I wrote about Adelaide’s opposition having difficulty in being able to rebound forward entries; unfortunately, it’s the complete opposite for Essendon. Over 76% of inside 50s are being rebounded out. Not only is it going out, but too high a percentage are turning into shots at goal, currently the 5th worst at defending those rebounds.
“Midfield manoeuvres.”
How this game is played between the arcs will be fascinating. Both teams are ranked in the top seven in possession differentials, with both top six for uncontested possession differential.
Of course Essendon ranks number one in both those metrics.
Once the ball leaves the congestion of stoppage, winning the ball back is going to be crucial. Essendon’s ability to get it back in this area is important as Adelaide averages over 69.9 uncontested marks outside their front third and averages the 6th least metres forward for each disposal in this time, meaning they’re lowering their eyes to look for short, easy targets to relieve pressure. Here is Essendon’s opportunity to get back to applying the pressure we all saw earlier in the season.
Reference an opponent quickly and be vigilant as they will most likely use that loose player to retain the ball. Keep the zone tight and force them to “dump” kick or handball, which should invite more pressure with tackling. Since round 13, Caldwell averages 10 tackles a game, ranking him number one in the competition of players to have played more than one game in that time, but only three are in the top 30 for tackling at Essendon. It’s time for some teammates to turn up the wick in front of a hostile home crowd as motivation.
“Commanding the field.”
Two major threats from centre back are Dawson and Hinge, both capable of advancing the game forward for Adelaide and quickly.
They lead the Crows in metres gained per game this year, and this was the case last time these teams met. Dawson had over 730 metres and Hinge had 632 metres, both well above their season average.
Hinge does his work further back of the two as he leads Adelaide’s rebounds from the defensive 50. His positioning is usually sideways to his teammates as an outlet to retain possession. He averages 4.9 uncontested marks and predominantly looks to go short by foot with the aim of running past for a handball receive to start ball movement chains. Of the defensive line, he brings the most energy in advancing the field, but Essendon has a plethora of options to curtail his influence and force him to defend when necessary. Guelfi seems a perfect fit for this role, as he has achieved this on numerous occasions this year. His role is to play his opponent as the forward by standing back shoulder and shadowing him around the ground, perfect for going up against Hinge. Stringer and Perkins could also challenge him offensively.
Dawson does his damage further up but mainly behind the contest and stoppage, playing the “sweeper” role to perfection as an outlet to his teammates. Look for him to scout behind as a handball receive and then use his vision and foot skills to “bite off” dangerous kicks to his forwards. Essendon midfielders will need to show consistent balance inside and outside the contest to close down Dawson’s space and time to sum up his next move. Durham looks like an ideal matchup around the contest, with aerial abilities to challenge Dawson’s defensive side.
The Bombers' last six opponents ranked one to six in prioritising contested possessions over uncontested ones, and it's safe to say Essendon struggled against this approach. They won only two games against West Coast and Collingwood, going -18 in contested possessions and -60 in ground level contests during this period. Can they regain control of the game style, as they did in their victory against Collingwood?
Since round 11, the Bombers have averaged 110.3 uncontested marks in their victories while registering only 82.3 in their losses. The Crows' opponents have averaged 74.7 uncontested marks this season. Over the last six games, when the Crows have won, they’ve conceded only 67.5 compared to 82.2 when they lose. This provides a clear barometer for Essendon's performance.
“Final strategic overview.”
Following last week's disappointment, which the coaches openly expressed in the media, all eyes will be on how the team responds this week.
With a home ground advantage, and a crowd by their side seeking redemption after a missed opportunity, efforts will be heavily scrutinised.
The process may begin with team selection on Thursday, but achieving victory on Friday will undoubtedly require a full four-quarter effort.
Go Dons!
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