Party like it’s 1999.
The last time Essendon faced Fremantle at the MCG, Fatboy Slim’s "Praise You" was a hit single, The Matrix was playing in cinemas, and there was widespread paranoia about the Y2K bug ending the world. That was more than 25 years ago, and Essendon will be hoping to replicate history, as the Bombers won that match by 36 points.
Piggy in the middle.
This game could become a battle of “keepings off.” Both Essendon and Fremantle rank first and second for uncontested possessions, with Essendon averaging a +21.1 differential and Fremantle a +19.6 differential against their opponents to date. Both teams tend to move the ball sideways by hand or foot more than any other teams to create opportunities to advance forward.
There is a slight difference in how they go about it though. Since round 16, Essendon has averaged 81.6 uncontested marks outside the forward 50 to facilitate ball movement, ranking 5th in this period, while Fremantle averages 64.6, ranking 10th. This meaning Fremantle has started favouring run and handball, a shift in their recent form that Essendon will need to be aware of. Two weeks ago, in their victory over Melbourne, Fremantle gained over 530 metres of territory from forward handballs stemming from overlap run. In contrast, a week earlier, in their loss to Hawthorn, they managed just over 20 metres gained by hand.
Please not again.
No one wants a repeat of last week's performance, where Essendon allowed 274 uncontested possessions to a team that averaged fewer than 220 coming into the game.
The strategy and supporting numbers are clear for this week. With the game expected to become uncontested once the ball leaves the stoppage, regaining possession from the opposition will be crucial.
Essendon had an advantage in this area until last week. Prior to last Saturday, the Bombers intercepted the ball from the opposition every 4.94 possessions, while Fremantle managed it every 5.41 possessions, which currently ranks them the worst among all teams.
Opportunities may arise.
In terms of where the ball is intercepted, Essendon has a clear advantage, ranking third-best for intercepting between the arcs, while Fremantle ranks second-worst. This difference is due to how and where the defensive line positions itself. Essendon’s defenders press much higher up the ground, often with most or all defenders, with the plan being to make it a difficult wall to break through. However, once broken, there’s little resistance, and this issue has worsened as the season progresses. Fremantle maintains constant defensive integrity deeper in their back third, which could allow Essendon more entries and scoring opportunities.
Lets test this out.
Even though there’s a possibility of scoring through more entries, Fremantle’s back third holds up well. They rank 6th best for denying opposition marks per inside 50 and 3rd best for denying opposition shots per entry. This area had been improving for Essendon until last week. Before the last round, Essendon found a marking target inside the forward third 26.6% of the time it entered the area, ranking 6th, though they need to improve their efficiency in generating a shot if a mark isn’t taken, currently ranking 17th for shots per entry.
The MCG’s dimensions, combined with Essendon's aerial targets, could be advantageous. Fremantle defenders can be vulnerable in one-on-one contests, In 2024, Fremantle has faced one-on-one contests in its defensive half 9.8 times a game, the 6th fewest of all teams, but they lose 28.9% of these, ranking as the 5th worst team. Forward 50 ground ball consistency has been an issue all season for Essendon, starting with unbalanced player selection. Once the ball hits the ground, the pressure needs to remain high to close space around Fremantle’s defenders and midfielders who support the back line. This group tends to shift the ball into the hands of Ryan, Draper, Walker, and Chapman, who look to go by foot, and usually short, to an outlet to control the tempo by marks and release the pressure applied.
Essendon’s forwards need to work hard to keep the ball in the area or, ideally, force turnovers to regain possession closer to goal and quickly look for teammates by choosing short “hit up” targets instead of going long into potentially outnumbered situations.
Here’s trouble.
Another major challenge for Essendon is defending against turnovers. It’s not ideal to be ranked 15th in this metric at this point in the year, especially against Fremantle. The Bombers have conceded 13.2 shots per game from turnovers after their win against West Coast. This area requires significant improvement because Fremantle excels at capitalising on turnovers, ranking first and averaging 62 points from turnovers in the same period.
Up for the fight?
Fremantle is 18th for intercept possessions this season, compensated by their strong clearance work. When they do win the ball back, they are extremely efficient in turning it into a scoring shot, with a strike rate of nearly one in four over five games. This efficiency is why Essendon’s defenders must remain switched on. The MCG’s size forces defenders to play on a “shorter leg rope,” and Essendon’s defence cannot afford to be caught out of position like in recent games.
When Fremantle intercepts, they have dangerous targets who can take marks if given too much space. Treacy and Amiss rank in the top 10 for marks inside 50 since round 16. With Jackson likely resting nearby when not in the ruck, McKay, Laverde, and Cox will need to be on their game, showcasing early season form instead of recent performances.
Add the small to medium forwards who work up and down the ground in Switkowski, Frederick and Banfield, who all average over five score involvements a game in that same time frame, and you can see the defenders of Redman, McGrath, Kelly and Martin have big jobs ahead.
Where it all begins.
With high uncontested possessions anticipated, generating turnovers and intercepting the ball will be key to success. The primary factor will be which team starts with the ball more often, and this is Fremantle’s greatest strength.
The Dockers lead the competition in clearance differential, with a total of 161.5, the largest in over nine years, compared to Essendon’s 5.7.
Now you can see why this aspect is so important in the result of this game.
Despite Fremantle's dominance in clearances, they only average a +6.1-point differential from all stoppages and +5 points from stoppages around the ground. What it does set up for them is territory and importantly, field position.
Of the 106.2 opposition possession chains, nearly 36% begin in the back third, which is too high a number to start so far away from goal and then rely on ball movement forward.
Referencing Fremantle’s round 18 loss against Hawthorn, the Hawks won the clearance count by five, limiting Fremantle to just 45 inside 50 entries, the second-lowest for the year.
The midfield battle this week is star-studded. Fremantle’s Serong and Young rank in the top 20 on AFL Player Ratings since round 16, while Essendon has two players in Caldwell and Merrett in the top 22. Serong, Brayshaw, and Young all rank in the top 30 for centre clearances, with Serong 4th for the year. This trio, along with the ruck duo of Darcy and Jackson, sees Fremantle as the top team in centre clearance differential.
After conceding four goals directly from centre bounces against the Saints last week, I would expect Essendon will focus heavily on this area in both reviews and training.
Make it count.
The Dockers' combination does damage inside at ground level, and once they get to the outside, off they go. However, it’s also a combination that doesn’t get much relief during quarters, as Johnson is the only other player who averages more than five centre bounce attendances per game.
In contrast, Essendon has seven players averaging over 10, which could allow them to exploit their midfield matchups through rotations. Pressure to intercept must start at stoppages. Even if Essendon cannot win the initial clearance, they need to disrupt how cleanly the ball exits the area, as Serong, Brayshaw, and Young rank 4th, 5th, and 16th respectively for handball receives, allowing them to find open spaces and create opportunities for teammates.
In the last five games, Young ranks 3rd on AFL Player Ratings, behind only Cripps and Rankine. During this period, he’s averaged 21.8 disposals with a disposal efficiency of 69.7%, over 35% of his disposals contribute to scoring chains. However, in their loss to the Western Bulldogs seven games ago, Young’s disposal efficiency was 46.2%, the lowest of his 76-game career. Although he managed 26 disposals, only 15.3% contributed to scoring, as pressure through tackling and closing space prevented him from effectively feeding teammates and forced him into “hack” kicks to relieve pressure.
Land of the giants.
Easily the biggest assignment of the year is ahead for Draper and his sidekicks, Wright, Cox, and possibly Goldstein or Bryan.
Darcy is the primary ruckman, attending over 63.7% of Fremantle’s ruck contests, but Jackson’s impact around the ground is significant, with more intercept marks and uncontested marks contributing to possession chains.
Essendon is acutely aware of this threat, as Marshall took 10 marks against them last week, all uncontested, and Jackson’s performance as a forward when these two teams last met was damaging.
Speed kills.
I often reference Sydney and coach Longmire’s strategic decisions regarding game style and matchups. His choice in round nine to tag Clark was pivotal in their victory. Longmire tasked Jordan with shadowing Clark, who is crucial to Fremantle's ball movement. That night, Jordan restricted him to his lowest disposal count of the year with 16, and just as crucially, made him earn is disposals by only allowing him two marks for the night, well down on his season average of 7.1, the second most of any Docker.
Outside of the key midfield trio of Serong, Brayshaw, and Young, Clark is next for generating run and overlap via handball receives, with over 17% of his 25 disposals contributing to a scoring chain. The critical question is whether Essendon has a player with the speed to effectively shut down someone with Clark's agility and ability to take the game on when required.
Essendon's list generally lacks natural leg speed, and Clark isn’t the only threat who can exploit the vast space of the MCG. Wingman Sharp is another concern, and it might be preferable for Duursma to match up against him, with the inclusion of Hind another benefit rather than relying on the recent wing rotations of Cox, Heppell, or Jones. Matchups and positioning are crucial since the Dockers are the 5th best team at moving the ball between the 50-metre arcs.
The key ingredient.
Last week's demoralising loss was tough for fans, as Essendon was well beaten in all important aspects of the game, though none more than in the purest forms of football, contests. Losing contested possessions by 17, including 11 aerial contests, calls for an urgent and significant turnaround. Since the Carlton game, Essendon is -24 in contests, whereas Fremantle is +57 over its last two games. No coaching strategy can compensate for players failing to win the ball in critical areas. Essendon must regain its competitive edge around the ball and improve its presence in the air both in defence and attack.
Fremantle is not a tall lineup overall, and with Fyfe out, their midfield lacks big bodies. Parish needs to quickly find his form, and Perkins along with Stringer must utilise their size and strength more effectively in the midfield.
The front third has struggled to retain the ball, with nine out of 11 entries quickly rebounded by St. Kilda during the third term debacle. Essendon players need to stabilise and respond when momentum shifts against them. Post-bye, they've conceded runs of four or more goals on seven occasions, including two runs of eight goals in the last two games. Before the bye, this only happened four times, with two occurrences against Port Adelaide.
Tick tock.
Time is running out for many players to prove they can be part of Essendon’s future. The club cannot afford to wait for potential to become reality. The club needs to, I hope and believe, move past players who have proven over the last two years that they’re not capable of taking this team forward anymore.
After 20 weeks of the season, if standards have been set, now is the time to demonstrate those standards and meet them.
Go Dons !
Comments