Present day.
The mid-season bye appeared to come at an opportune time for Essendon, providing much-needed time to recover after a few challenging games that stretched a young and undermanned midfield, as well as injuries that tested their balance in defence. With this break, the Bombers aim to regain momentum and get back on the right track.
Just five games ago, Essendon traveled to Western Australia to face the West Coast Eagles. Now, the team has an opportunity to demonstrate what they learned from that game, using identified areas of improvement as clear motivation to perform even better.
Seven weeks ago.
Time in forward half is a crucial element of modern football, and it played a significant role in the outcome of this last matchup.
Essendon’s victory was largely due to their front-half pressure, with 16 shots at goal and 57% of their total score coming from 14 tackles inside the forward 50, along with intercepts in the front half.
The notable concern though was West Coast's efficiency in their forward 50.
The Eagles converted their entries into shots on goal 54% of the time, a challenge Essendon needs to address this week, especially after the poor rate of 61% against Carlton two weeks ago. However, there had been a positive trend of improvement up until that game.
Over the previous four matches, the opposition's efficiency decreased to 44.5%, and approaching the defensive standards set by top teams in previous seasons.
In 2023, all seven top-ranked teams in this metric reached the finals, while five out of seven did in 2022.
Another area for improvement from the previous clash was preventing entries deep inside the defensive 50 zone.
Of the 24 shots at goal the Eagles had, 12 were taken from within 30 metres and five from inside 20 metres.
A significant issue was West Coast's ability to take contested marks inside that area, setting up set shots at goal. The Eagles' strike rate of marks per inside 50 is 22.4% ranked 9th for the season. However, in this game, they succeeded at a rate of 27.2%, surpassing the top-ranked G.W.S for 2024.
Speed of ball movement and individual performances were also critical.
West Coast gained 17.40 metres per disposal in this game, slightly above their season average at that point of the season. Their long and direct play at speed troubled the Bombers' defensive setup, hindering their ability to reference opponents and for teammates to get back and support matchups. Aerial targets Waterman and Williams combined for nine marks inside their front third, five of them contested.
Missing that night was Ridley, who I expect will be key for the Bombers in the air this time around. Since his return three games ago, he has averaged 10 intercept possessions per game, including 5.7 intercept marks, with almost a quarter of his disposals being rebounds from the back third. With Allen expected to make his first appearance of the season for West Coast since round one, Ridley's support for Laverde and McKay down back will be crucial.
Present day.
The opposition’s speed of ball movement has been an issue for Essendon to defend all year.
West Coast, Gold Coast, Richmond, and Port Adelaide are four of the top six teams in the competition for metres gained per disposal, with Geelong and Collingwood also in the top six—teams the Bombers face in the next two weeks. Essendon has already lost to two of these opponents, with the other two also causing significant challenges.
The direct forward play these teams prioritise tests the one-on-one abilities of Essendon defenders in the air and on the ground. What can Essendon do to counter this?
A key strategy is to improve the clearance battle, gaining initial territory and allowing the defensive structure to set up with numbers behind the ball. Another strategy, perhaps less obvious, involves how Essendon moves the ball forward in ball movement.
Seven weeks ago.
The Bombers previously reliable ball movement has been inconsistent this season, particularly ineffective against the Eagles.
In that game, Essendon started 61 possession chains from their defensive half, but only 18 reached the front third, with four being what I classify as shallow entries.
At the time, the Eagles were ranked last in preventing chains from transitioning from the defensive third to the attacking third.
While scoring sources from the front half via territory are preferred, as the season progresses and matches against stronger teams loom, relying solely on the clearance and territory game won’t suffice. This week, an improvement in ball movement from the defensive half is crucial.
Players ahead of the ball need to increase their work rate, creating space by leading up and running into open areas. Look for short "hit up" leads and reward teammates who find space. This selfless work aims to move the ball closer to goal before taking longer options.
Recently, kicks have been going long from the halfway point to just inside 50, making it harder to score and importantly defend if possession is lost.
Essendon’s preferred ball movement is controlled and steady, as opposed to link-up handball, run and chaos, which helps maintain defensive integrity if the opponent regains possession.
This is an approach that I currently agree with based on the list profile right now.
Looking forward.
In West Coast's two biggest wins this season, against Fremantle in round six and Melbourne in round 10, they dominated the aerial battle both in attack and defence.
They took over 100 marks in both games and limited those teams to 40 and 36 inside 50 entries respectively, keeping both well under their season average in disposals.
Fremantle, the third ranked team for disposals in 2024, averages 374, but in this encounter, they could only manage 329, largely due to the +15 intercepts in the Eagles' favour.
Of the 69 intercepts against Melbourne, 13 ended in a shot at goal, while they achieved the same number of shots from only 59 intercepts against Fremantle. Their primary success came from winning the ball in the air, with 17 intercept marks against Fremantle and 19 against Melbourne.
Key players McGovern and Barrass were pivotal, with McGovern taking seven marks over those games and Barrass nine, seven of which were contested. Although these players are known for their aerial prowess, this can also work in Essendon’s favour.
Essendon’s key forwards need to compete in the air and, at worst, bring the ball to ground while continuing their strong tackling pressure from the last matchup.
Keeping separation between the two key defenders is crucial. It would be preferable to force them to defend by having likely matchups like Langford, Wright, or Jones lead up to the kicker to take marks on the lead rather than contested pack marks.
Both Langford and Jones rank in the top 18 for marks inside 50 on the lead, with Langford being number one in the competition.
The midfield.
No team in 2024 possesses the ball less than the Eagles, with their average of 308 possessions per game down almost 60 down compared to Essendon, who ranks second only to the Bulldogs after 13 games.
No team in 2024 earns their possessions more through contested play than uncontested than the Eagles, with Yeo and Kelly both ranked in the top 12 for contested possessions won at ground level.
Apart from their two victories against Fremantle and Melbourne earlier this year, no team relies on scoring from stoppages more than West Coast. Over 46% of their weekly score comes directly from stoppages, which is nearly 8% above the AFL average. With Kelly and Reid contributing to over a quarter of the team's scores this year, their absence—Kelly due to injury and Reid due to suspension—significantly weakens the team's ability to win the ball at stoppages. This situation presents Essendon with a clear advantage and an opportunity to recapture the form that was vital to their early-season success.
Essendon's recent struggles with gaining clearances, both at centre bounce and around the ground, are well-known. In the last five weeks, Essendon is ranked 17th for stoppage clearance differential, indicating they are relying heavily on winning the ball back post-clearance behind the ball.
Over the last five games, Caldwell is the only Essendon player ranked in the top 50 for stoppage clearances, and only Merrett is inside the top 50 players for contested possessions at stoppages.
This continued loss in a crucial area is forcing defenders to win the ball back and regain the initial loss of territory. Ridley and Martin, as defenders, are the top-ranked Essendon players for metres gained per game.
After Round Eight, Essendon was ranked third for stoppage clearance differential. However, in the last five games, the Bombers have had to claw back over 270 metres lost per game due to the damage caused at the source.
While the loss of Parish in the midfield is significant, it’s worth noting Draper’s absence also.
In the six games he played between Round Two and Round Seven, the Bombers were +24 in clearances and generated +15 shots at goal from clearances. Draper's average of four score involvements and his work at centre bounce, where he is still the number three ranked ruckman for centre clearances per centre bounce attended, played a crucial role, is this the week he returns from his injury enforced layoff?
The future.
This game is the first of ten crucial steps for Essendon to solidify and build on their progress undertaken this season. In the coming weeks, the team should focus on perfecting their on-field system, getting players into peak form, and ensuring everything aligns for a strong finish to the year. It all starts this week.
Go Dons!
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