Learning all the time.
At this stage in Essendon’s evolution and development, every game remains a learning curve in understanding how to consistently perform and how that translates against the different 17 teams each week. This week is no different.
It's not just about accumulating wins and the finishing position on the ladder; that's something to evaluate at the season's end. The focus is on gaining the experience necessary for long-term success and understanding the consequences of deviating from that path.
Changes in set up.
The first bounce is always highly anticipated, and player matchups from positioning are a big reason for this.
Finally we saw Martin make his way to the Essendon front half of the ground to begin the game. His role this week was to fill in for Gresham as a high half forward, working up to contests and stoppages ahead and then working back to goal, while also spending some time as a midfielder and starting in the centre bounce.
But Simpson wasn’t going to allow free rein in this role, assigning Jones the job of shadowing him for the game, following Martin up the ground when required and only being free from this role when Martin attended six centre bounces. Even though his 21 disposals were his least of the season to date, his 10 score involvements were the most he’s had since Round 11, 2022, and his 90.5% disposal efficiency was the highest of his 58-game career. It was quality over quantity.
Chaos was always going to ensue with Ryan starting in centre bounces this week in place of a missing Reid and Kelly. He spent the majority of the game between the arcs, prioritising all-out attack by sneaking forward at stoppages, at times playing Russian roulette with the Essendon midfielders. It's an unconventional approach, but one that paid dividends for the Eagles and certainly changed the dynamic of the conventional Essendon setup. It was a risk that paid off for West Coast and, at times, one that favoured the Bombers.
Centre bounce.
Over 20% of the scores for the game started directly in the centre square, with eight of the Eagles' 15 shots from stoppage starting there, while Essendon had three themselves.
Ryan’s three centre clearances were a major factor in the 23 points West Coast scored from there, which is almost two more goals than Essendon has given up on average this year.
Like in recent games, the stoppage battle was a losing one for Essendon, but this time it turned into shots at goal and not just territory loss.
Urgent improvement needed.
In the last five games, Essendon is ranked 18th in stoppage clearance differential around the ground, losing this count by an average of six in this period. This week, the loss was by 10, and including centre bounce stoppages, 15 shots were generated for West Coast, the most against Essendon this year.
This consistent losing battle in recent weeks, which up to this game was more a territory loss than a score source, has me thinking more and more it’s a personnel issue as well as a setup issue.
With Draper back this week, the last pieces missing are Parish and Setterfield. Bigger challenges await in this area over the next block of games, and after this week’s performance against an undermanned midfield of West Coast, improvement is needed urgently, whether by personnel or structure.
The turnover game.
A hugely pleasing aspect was the ability to turn intercepts into shots at goal. This week, 28% of intercepts ended in a shot at goal, a strike rate that is over 8% better than the AFL average and almost 5% higher than Sydney’s rate for the year.
While in the first 40 minutes it was from winning the ball back in the defensive half, in the next 40 minutes, it was from winning it back in the front half. All this shows a growing aspect that will be a key ingredient from this point and beyond.
Career records and special mentions.
Once again, Captain Merrett was assigned a ball and chain as usual this week, but once again, he rose to the occasion and made his presence felt with pure influence for the team.
His 21.4 AFL Player Rating points for impact were his equal highest for the year, alongside his round two performance against Sydney. While that game was about the work he did inside the contest, this one was about what he did outside it and the impact he had on his teammates.
Over 44% of his disposals were part of a scoring chain, a rate that is his best whenever he’s had over 25 disposals in a game. His five direct goal assists are now his best, beating his four from 2021. This effectiveness made him the number one player of all players for the round for scoring impact.
Merrett showed his usual assets outside of the immediate bubble, while Durham and Caldwell went to work inside it.
The two tag-teamed for 59 possessions, with over 37% of them earned at contests and over 1000 meters gained from their work. While Caldwell was asked to go head-to-head with Yeo at centre bounce, Durham spent more of his starting time in the front half, with 10 of his 29 disposals going inside 50 and over 15% of Caldwell’s work starting scoring chains.
His one-on-one battle in tight with Yeo was shown with the two registering the most tackles of all players for the round, as Caldwell equaled his career high of 11 tackles in a game.
Special mention goes to Laverde this week.
He struggled in his last game against West Coast but more than made up for it this week, clearly standing out as Essendon’s best defender all day.
His 15.8 AFL Player Rating points for impact mark his fourth highest in his 123-game career. Of his 29 possessions for the game, 11 were intercepts, including six intercept marks, two of which were contested. His five rebounds were influential in Essendon scoring so well from the back half.
His performance stood out among the Essendon defenders as the group struggled against the speed of entries coming their way.
The power up front.
The Eagles are not short of punishing forwards in the front half, with an experienced attacking lineup to rival any team. They have the capacity to kick a score if given the right opportunity, and this week they were given that chance.
Allowing Allen, Waterman, Darling, and Cripps 56 looks inside forward 50 puts a lot of reliance on the defenders to be up for the job.
There were multiple occasions where leg ropes to these forwards were extended too far, especially knowing that the Eagles are the most direct team in territory gain of all 18.
This season, West Coast is averaging 46.8 inside-50s per game (ranked 16th) from just over 308 possessions, the least of all teams. This week, they turned 292 possessions into 56 inside-50 entries. Only four teams average 56+ entries per game, and none do it with fewer than 345 possessions.
Conceding 92 points to a team averaging 68.7 after the first 13 games is alarming and needs to be addressed promptly.
Before this game, Essendon was averaging 83.1 points per game, meaning there would be a reliance on efficiency in the front half to outscore the Eagles. Thankfully, after the two previous games, this worked back in Essendon’s favour.
One v One.
Once again, we got a good look at Essendon in a one-on-one structure instead of a zone defence, and this time saw a significant improvement in their ball movement.
In reality, one-on-one matchups should facilitate better ball movement, provided that the players are willing to outwork their direct opponents and exploit spaces that are much more accessible compared to zone defence.
By halftime, Essendon had generated eight shots at goal from possession chains originating in the defensive half, boasting a high efficiency with seven goals converted on the scoreboard.
These possession chains were facilitated by players positioning themselves as lead-up options to advance the ball forward.
On average, every 2.86 possessions in that zone resulted in uncontested marks, enabling the team to convert 58% of possession chains into inside 50s, with over 30% of them resulting in a score.
However, the team had to start these possession chains deep in their defensive half due to losing the initial clearances by six up to that point.
Unfortunately, the dynamics shifted in the third quarter.
After half time.
The contrast between the second and third quarters will surely be emphasised to the players as non-negotiables for the performance this team and setup requires. While the first 40 minutes of play started promisingly, the next 20 minutes looked completely different.
This time, winning clearances wasn’t the issue; it was what happened when they didn’t win them, as well as the crucial contests both ahead of the field and behind it, and the ability to win the ball back after losing those contests.
After breaking even in contested possessions in the first two quarters, the Bombers lost the count by 11 in the third quarter. This reflected even more with intercepts in that same period.
They could only intercept the Eagles every 8.55 possessions compared to every 4.99 in the first half. This disparity allowed West Coast to go inside 50 seven more times than Essendon and have 11 shots at goal from 16 entries. Stoppage scores were a major culprit, with five of the eight clearances West Coast won turning into shots at goal.
If it weren't for two late goals in the quarter, the 23-point halftime margin would have turned into a one-point game with 20 minutes to go.
Control.
Essendon faced numerous challenges in the third quarter, prompting the need to regain control of the tempo for the final 20 minutes.
Throughout most of the game, ball movement was open and flowing, with pressure released once the ball moved outside the immediate areas.
Up to that point, there were only 74 tackles recorded between both teams, much lower than the AFL average of over 90, reflecting the nature of the game during that period.
For three quarters, Essendon could only apply pressure through tackling every 6.72 West Coast possessions, recognising quickly that needed improvement.
In the last quarter, that rate improved to every 3.21 possessions, achieved by closing the space around West Coast when Essendon didn’t have the ball, as well as forcing the Eagles to win the ball back more often.
This shift in approach was evident in the Eagles' ability to intercept Essendon.
During the third quarter, West Coast regained possession from Essendon every 5.35 possessions, a significant improvement from the second quarter rate of every eight. But in the final quarter, that needed to be a rate much better than every 12.3.
This translated to a differential of +49 uncontested possessions, +30 in kicks, and +23 in marks for Essendon.
Ultimately, better-credentialed teams will not allow a difference of 103 uncontested possessions a game. However, a pleasing aspect was the team's ability to shift into a different mode to control the tempo of the game when necessary, particularly during the most crucial times of the game, such as the last quarter.
Reality.
Realistically, West Coast wasn’t going to pose enough of a challenge for Essendon at this stage of the season. While their quick ball movement and direct style of play were always going to test Essendon defensively and in contests, the upcoming weeks will bring a greater variety of challenges with more refined and sustainable setup’s. Essendon will need to provide much more detailed and consistent answers over a longer period to these challenges though.
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