The Round One clash between Essendon and Hawthorn not only marks the beginning of a new season, but also sets the tone for the journey that lies ahead.
For us Essendon fans, it’s a chance to witness the culmination of months of anticipation. and the unveiling of the teams’ aspirations for the year.
For the last few pre-seasons, I have continually "banged on" about a change in set up and then system in the way Essendon plays, this obviously is the first real look, and against Hawthorn, it will need to have changed, because they played a very different way to most teams in 2023, and they will test out your defending without the footy set up, and then the system to be able to win it back.
I'll get to that in a bit.
Do not write off what Hawthorn did last year, and do not take into account what happened the last time they met, it was now 24 games ago for both teams.
Hawthorn's overall average age list last year was 18th in the competition, and overall average games played of the entire list also 18th.
40.7 average games was clearly the most inexperienced, Adelaide next at 51.7.
This a major reason as to why there were ups and downs over the course of their 23 games.
Two wins against the grand finalists on the MCG, with an average winning margin of just under 5 goals, shows their potential.
Only Melbourne would be the other team to defeat both Collingwood and Brisbane.
Three losses by a total of six points, two of them back to back in rounds 5 and 6 to GWS and Adelaide, helped improve the confidence of such a young team, which at that point, had only won one of their first four games and had an average losing margin of 74 points.
If you thought Essendon played an uncontested brand of football in 2023, you'd be right, except Hawthorn took it to another level.
251.7 uncontested possessions a game was the most by anyone last year.
With an average of 24.3 more than their opponents a game.
But it was uncontested done differently than normal.
Only 54.4% of their disposals by foot.
The lowest percentage in kicks.
It's handball and overlapping handball.
It's run and create space.
It's take the game on and take ground with leg speed.
Weddle, McDonald, Moore and Impey all have license to run and bounce, luckily Jiath won't be playing to add to that.
Clear number one team for average running bounces a game last year, majority starting from the defensive third and into the middle of the ground.
They played very expansive, using almost the entire field in moving the ball, sometimes indirectly.
With higher handballs comes risk though, provided you can continue to apply pressure to their ball movement.
They were the second worse team at defending a turnover or intercept from becoming a score.
This will test out Essendon's capabilities to win the ball back, and where I'll see if there's been a change over the offseason.
The space will need to be closed down around them, with the Essendon forwards and midfielders quickly able to switch from offence into defensive mode, keep balance ahead and behind the ball to force them to kick more to intercepting defenders of McKay, Reid and whoever comes in to replace Ridley.
Keep the pressure at the source to aid teammates down the ground.
Come forward at them to close their space, rather than retreat.
It may be hard to believe, but Essendon was ranked second for tackle differential last year, 11.6 more tackles a game than Hawthorn who were 17th.
To balance out the freedom to use their leg speed, the Hawks pushed Amon to half back and added D'ambrosio over the trade period to aid in ball movement, this time to use their foot skills to find their way forward.
With run off half back joined by kicking efficiency, Essendon will want to force those defenders to defend their man.
When the time comes, get on the move and become an option, or look to be an option to receive the ball, get them to be more concerned in you, and not just allow them to play their game.
Clearance wasn't a strength for the Bombers, neither for Hawthorn, 14th and 13th in clearance differential.
But the Hawks didn't mind getting their hands dirty in contest when they needed to.
Sixth in contested possession differential behind Melbourne, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane and St. Kilda. That's a top bracket to be in especially considering how much uncontested possessions a game they averaged.
Most of those were earned at ground level, ranked fourth in differential for groundball.
Essendon ranked 17th. Yuck.
They're obviously missing some key position backmen in their lineup, so a lot will fall down to Sicily to stand tall.
Clearly the Hawks number one player for intercept marks, and 7th overall last season.
He's not just important in winning the ball for them, but also starting attacks from his foot skills. He's the number one defender for starting a possession chain that leads to a score.
This will rely on a sacrificial role from his matchup.
Coach Sam Mitchell played Sicily on a second or third target of the opposition, in order to free him up to be a kick behind the play, and a third man up in defensive setup's.
This sacrificial role that the Essendon forward needs to adhere to, is to make Sicily accountable to him. Lead to dangerous positions, get into your teammates eye line, make yourself a target, otherwise Sicily won't bother giving you any respect as an option, and just sit off to play his preferred game.
Hawthorn's assets occupy the middle and front third of the ground.
Newcombe, Worpel and Nash as starting midfielders, all averaged 24 and above in disposals last year, in that group was also Day, but another lucky break for Essendon that the reigning best and fairest winner won't be part of that mix.
Of that midfield, only Worpel has a kicking efficiency of around 50%, the others are 60% and above.
They are very good decision makers, and can execute when delivering inside 50, so don't want to be seeing those midfielders with time and space through the corridor, will need their match ups to not just be about winning inside, but also defending on the outside.
I'm going to admit, Parish not being in on the weekend is a huge loss, especially with the balance Hawthorn has in their mixture.
Darcy was Essendon's number one player at getting his hands on the ball first at stoppages in 2023, in fact, he was the third best in the competition with 7.7 a game, only behind Liberatore and Neale.
The next best for Essendon was Merrett with 4.7, but 34 spots lower overall.
In between Parish and Merrett are those three Hawks I spoke of earlier.
Another member of their mix is Maginness, though his job is completely different, it's a one eyed focus on tagging, and I would say Merrett will be his target.
So with Parish out, and Merrett with a ball and chain attached, this game will ask for Caldwell, Setterfield, Hobbs, Perkins and Durham to pick up the difference. Here we get our first real look at the work Durham has done inside over the preseason.
The Hawks front third will mainly be balanced towards leg speed at ground level, all centred around Mitch Lewis as the aerial target.
His 36 goals from 15 matches in 2023 had him 8th for average goals a game, only behind Walker, Curnow, Larkey, Greene, Cameron, Max King and Hawkins, that's elite company.
He was also top 10 for marks inside 50, that had 8th of the top 20 average goal kickers.
Even at the age of 32, and after multiple recent injuries, Jack Gunston still demands full respect from his opponent. His versatility to lead at the kicker, and smarts to find space using angles, makes him a great foil alongside Lewis.
It will be most interesting seeing who is selected down back for Essendon to matchup against the smalls of Hawthorn, who are blessed with leg speed in that front half.
Hardwick. Bruest, Ginnivan and Watson will make up the majority of the forward mix and all demand something different from their defenders.
Bruest a really important head to head matchup.
He's been a barometer for their scores for a long time.
He averaged 2.23 goals a game last year, bagging three goals in four of their wins.
His 47 goals had him ranked 12th for the Coleman Medal, the smallest player of the top 18.
No snoozing here. Back shoulder defending is what I would like to see, keep him within reach.
Mitchell played two dedicated rucks in 21 of 23 games last year, but I'll be surprised if he goes that way this time round.
Chol acquired in the trade period has forward craft plus size and leap to be the relief ruckman, should Essendon need two dedicated rucks or will a chop out of Wright for 5 to 6 minutes a quarter work?
Like I said earlier, Hawthorn are vulnerable to punishment.
The defensive side in 2023 ultimately didn't compete.
Once inside their opponents forward third, it was extremely difficult for them to get it out.
Their rebound 50 per opposition inside 50 was the third worst, only ahead of North Melbourne and the Eagles.
They also gave up the third most marks inside 50, 13.7 a game.
No matter what the score line is, it won't change the way they play, they will always want to take the game on.
Hold up their momentum early by keeping consistent pressure at the source, stop the overlapping handball and force them to controlled areas in order to win the ball back and earn your rewards going the opposite way
Go Dons.
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