“Take it one week at at time”
Recognising your opponent's strengths is crucial in football, but setting personal goals is equally vital.
Goals serve as the driving force behind motivation, pushing the players to improve and succeed on the field.
By defining clear objectives, Essendon can focus their efforts, enhance their skills, and achieve improvements at a higher level and faster rate.
With four games remaining before the bye weekend, providing an opportunity for the team to evaluate its performance thus far,
Essendon has a chance to further enhance its progress this season by taking on a struggling North Melbourne this week.
“Get the chocolates”
Throughout this year, I've consistently emphasised Essendon's proficiency in scoring from stoppages. However, in their most recent head-to-head encounter last year, it was North Melbourne who effectively utilised this aspect to their advantage.
They managed to score 55 points from stoppages, with 30 of those points originating from within their forward 50.
In contrast, Essendon relied on a much more reliable score source of intercepts, with 19 of their 70 points coming from intercepting within their own forward 50.
In the two encounters last year, only 15 points separated them in total. Unfortunately for Essendon, North Melbourne managed to score 99 points in their round 12 clash, marking the second-highest tally they achieved for the year. Meanwhile, their round 22 score of 77 points was their sixth-highest tally.
“Hit the scoreboard”
Much has been discussed regarding North Melbourne's struggles this year.
Comparing 2022 to 2023, the Kangaroos improved by an average of 19.4 points per game overall, with a slight increase in quarters won, totaling 25 compared to the previous year's 20. While the average losing margin decreased from 54 points to 35.1.
The team made extensive use of their list, with 43 players being used, the highest number by any team and the second highest in the last nine seasons.
Nick Larkey emerged as a standout forward, scoring 71 goals with 71% accuracy, making him the most accurate goal kicker among the top 100 players. This contributed to the team being the second most accurate in kicking for goal.
Well, the accuracy remains consistent for 2024, still making them the number one ranked team in this aspect. It's masking a lot up to this point. While they improved in overall score gains last year, that trend has reversed.
They are now losing more points per game than they gained last year, with a loss of 23.93 points a game. The majority of these losses are coming from their defensive side.
Their average scores against were 100.78, but now that's become 120.55.
Last season, the Roos were ranked 6th for exiting their defensive 50 through the corridor rather than the boundary. However, giving up just over 60 points a game from turning it over in such a dangerous area became untenable. This year, they've switched to exiting via the boundary more, making them the second ranked team in terms of the percentage of exits via their back third.
For reference, the number one team in exiting wide versus through the corridor is Essendon, who switched from being 16th last year.
It’s been an incredibly challenging start for the Kangaroos as the fixture wasn’t favourable early on. Three of their first four games were against last season's Preliminary Finalists, which appears to have shaken the confidence of the young players.
North Melbourne ranks 18th for overall list age and for overall games experience this year. This season, their average games played each week is 66 compared to Essendon’s average 109, which is ranked 5th.
“Getting your hands on the pill”
Everything becomes more challenging if you don't have the ball as much as your opposition to begin with. Essendon has experienced this in recent times, but finally, that's changed.
The Bombers continue to showcase their strength out of clearances with a differential of +4.3. When compared to North Melbourne, that becomes +7.5.
Finally, after years of struggling to win contests consistently, the Bombers are heading in the right direction this year, both in the air and on the ground level.
A +3.5 differential demonstrates the team's confidence in playing this way and the players' ability to win, or at worst, halve this aspect of the game.
Meanwhile, the Kangaroos are clearly last here with -17 in contests and -12.3 in ground ball.
All of this results in a massive differential between the two teams in possessions of 61.3.
A significant part of Essendon's improved contest performance stems from strategic changes in game plan and setup. This shift acknowledges the importance of individual execution and the coaching staff's recognition of players' capabilities.
“In and under”
For the last three seasons, Essendon has favoured prioritising ball control with uncontested possession. However, this season reflects a slight deviation, with players showing increased confidence in contested situations.
In 2022, the Bombers ranked last in the percentage of possessions won at ground level contests, with only 22.7% earned this way.
While the top ranked teams exceeded 28%, and the AFL average hovered just under 26%, Premiers Geelong at just under 25%.
Last year, the Bombers climbed only one spot in the rankings, while the AFL average increased by another percent, as did the premiers.
Currently, theit ground ball rate stands at 24.93 and just below the AFL average.
The team's reliance on denial tactics has decreased due to enhanced midfield rotations and more players getting to contests in support.
In 2023, five players averaged five or more groundball gets per game, with Parish being heavily relied upon, despite missing five games during the season.
This year, that number has increased to eight, with Gresham as the sole addition from outside the club and Durham showcasing significant improvement from averaging 4.7 and now 6.5.
Another indicator of change is the number of stoppages outside of centre bounces.
In 2022, Essendon games featured the lowest number of stoppages around the ground, with only 49.8 per game, four less than the next ranked team, 12 less than the AFL average, and 13 less than the Premiers.
Last season, in Scott’s first year, that figure rose to 54.9 but still remained the lowest, with no other team registering fewer than 60, while the premiers averaged just over 65.
Up to now in 2024, although the overall ranking has only increased by three spots to 15th, the number has risen to 60.8, indicating a shift in mindset from the coaches and a belief in the players' ability to compete and win consistently.
“He’s a gun”
Earlier, I wrote about Durham's influence in ground ball contests and its significant impact on the team's ability to win the ball consistently. Credit is due to the coaches for identifying Durham's determination and for their willingness to explore talent within the club rather than seeking externally.
The 57 game youngster has proven himself worthy of the trust placed in him by the coaching staff.
Using Champion Data’s Player Ratings, a points system that measures a player's impact for their team, Durham ranks 12th among all players aged 23 years and under who have played more than one game this season.
This list includes players Daicos, Rowell, Serong, Green, Warner, Gulden, Anderson, Newcombe, Jackson, Holmes, and Powell.
Of these 12 players, none has improved as much as Durham has this season, with his average Player Rating increasing from 7.65 to 13.53 compared to last season.
Crucially, among these 12 players, he averages the least amount of time on the ground at 72% game time, with only Powell and Green spending less than 80%.
In this same group of 12 players, Durham is only behind Rowell, Serong, Green, Newcombe, and Daicos for contested possessions won per minute on the ground, with only Rowell having a higher rate of contested possessions to uncontested possessions.
Centre clearance has been a weapon this season, as well as a scoring source for Essendon, and Durham has showcased his ability here, only ranked behind Daicos, Rowell, and Serong for centre clearance per centre bounce attended.
Inside the bubble of contests includes groundball, clearances and of course tackling, with Durham number three for this group for tackles per minute on ground.
All of the above factors have had a significant effect on Durham's teammates, who are now relieved of much of the burden within the contest and can focus their impact outside of it and beyond.
“Stick to the process”
If you're not getting your hands on the ball first, then what effort are you putting in to regain possession?
The Roos rank 18th for turnover differential, averaging 10.4 more turnovers than their opponents, which has translated into a score differential of 35 points, once again ranking 18th in the competition. Here's an opportunity for Essendon to focus on defence and convert it into attack.
The Bombers are averaging 44.1 points in punishing their opponents to date, a figure that's below the AFL average of 46.
As much as Essendon has improved the intercept numbers from 66.9 last season to 68.3 this season, the next step is to capitalize on these opportunities and reap the rewards.
It would be a worthy goal to aim to at least match what the Kangaroos' previous opponents were able to produce against them and perhaps even surpass it.
“Kick it down the guts”
While it's crucial to respect your opponent's strengths and capabilities, setting goals for yourself to achieve serves as a motivating incentive for progress and success.
Essendon’s average for and against after nine games is 82.1 and 83.5, while North Melbourne’s is 67.7 and 120.5. A simple goal for this week would be to keep them to a lower score than they’re currently averaging.
I previously discussed Essendon's poor defensive 50 efficiency of this season after the West Coast Eagles game, highlighting their high percentage of shots to entries rate. This presents another opportunity for growth through experience.
The Kangaroos rank 18th for inside 50s, averaging 45.1 and are generating a shot at 40.4% once they’re inside that zone. Comparing this to how many entries the Bombers are allowing of 51.1, and the opposition's strike rate of 50.7% for turning that entry into a shot, this should be a target for improvement for Essendon this week.
“Man on man”
Up until two weeks ago, Sheezel primarily operated in the back third of the ground, typically attending an average of 2.4 centre bounces per game and contributing just 1.4 stoppage clearances weekly. However, in round eight against St. Kilda, he started in the centre square on 13 occasions and with three stoppage clearances around the ground.
Last week, this trend continued, with Sheezel spending more time in the midfield as his starting position, resulting in over 57% of his possessions coming in the front half of the ground.
The Kangaroos will rely on Sheezel as their primary decision-maker with the ball, utilising his precision kicking skills to advance possession chains and create space for his teammates.
He primarily positions himself outside of the initial contest, awaiting a handball receive to use his abilities effectively.
Essendon's matchup will need to show respect for him, closing down space to limit his time and vision for finding teammates, thus pressuring his decision-making and potentially forcing turnovers instead of the short kicks he prefers to maintain possession for North Melbourne.
Accompanying Sheezel are mainstays Davies Uniake and youngsters Wardlaw and Powell, indicating less reliance this year on Simpkin, whose role appears to have shifted to spending more time starting at half forward and transitioning into an extra midfielder as the game progresses.
“They don’t get any shorter”
No ruckman this year attends more ruck contests than North Melbourne’s Xerri, with his involvement at over 83% of the teams contests.
In comparison, when Goldstein and Draper play together, each averages less than 50%.
Xerri has embraced the role of a modern-day ruckman by actively engaging in ground-level contests following aerial duels.
His follow-up work sees him ranked second of the competition for stoppage clearances of all rucks and ranked 19th in the league overall. With this aspect of his game, he effectively assumes the role of an extra midfielder, providing crucial support to his young, undersized teammates.
“Pick him up”
Early last season and again this season, Coach Clarkson implemented a zone defence as the preferred strategy for defending against ball movement. However, on both occasions, it proved challenging for the inexperienced players of North Melbourne to execute consistently. Consequently, the team has had to shift to a more accountable one-on-one defensive setup.
This adjustment could benefit Essendon's ball movement, as it will test each player's work ethic from both teams. Firstly, for Essendon, it will reveal who can effectively work into and out of space to support teammates, with or without the ball. Additionally, it will test the Kangaroos' ability to sustain defensive pressure on their individual matchups.
In the Essendon forward line, players need to support each other by maintaining constant movement and quickly transitioning from being a target to creating space for the next target to move through.
“The result will look after itself”
Given that the Bombers have the lowest percentage among the top 13 teams, many will anticipate a significant improvement when they face the winless Kangaroos.
Instead of striving for a large winning margin, focus on enhancing defensive fundamentals and attacking efficiency, allowing the scoreboard to reflect the execution of these areas and indicating overall improvement.
Go Dons !
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