“12 months ago”
Last season, Essendon faced Collingwood only once, well that’s how I choose to remember it as after round 23, they packed their bags for an early off season.
Therefore, I'll only reflect on last year's Anzac Day clash, which, for three quarters, showcased one of the most impressive performances of the year, particularly due to the strategic prowess from the coaches' box.
Despite the eventual outcome not favoring Essendon, their ability to neutralize Collingwood's strengths in generating turnovers and disrupting defensive transitions for three quarters resulted in a commanding 28-point lead by the end of the third quarter.
In that crucial third quarter, Essendon orchestrated 19 possession chains, with 15 advancing inside 50 and nine converting into points on the scoreboard. They effectively controlled the ball movement, averaging over four disposals and a mark in each chain. This strategic approach could once again be pivotal for Essendon in setting up the game.
“What worked”
Collingwood's kicking effectiveness primarily stems from its defenders: Moore, Howe, and Maynard, alongside smaller defenders Noble and Quaynor. There's minimal reliance on handballing in the back half, with this group opting for foot skills over 60% of the time. This poses a challenge for Essendon's forward line, requiring quick transitions from being targeted forwards to applying pressure in the area to hinder easy exits for Collingwood's defenders.
In this exact matchup last year, Moore and Maynard led Collingwood’s intercept possessions with 11 and seven, respectively, with seven of those 18 being marks.
But during the three quarters when Essendon was enjoying its dominance, Langford was able to make Moore accountable by leading to dangerous areas and having his teammates honour him with passes.
He led marks inside 50 for the game with four, two of them on the lead, and capitalized with three goals for the game.
This is an example of keeping the Magpies defenders in check by forcing them to be more concerned with their matchup becoming an attacking threat.
“Looking for improvement”
In my analysis of the Essendon versus Adelaide match last week, I discussed Essendon's inefficiency in finding targets inside the 50-metre arc.
With 62 entries inside 50 resulting in only seven marks, Essendon will need to improve their success rate against the Collingwood defense.
While Essendon's early attack forced Adelaide to adjust their defensive structure by adding numbers back for support, Adelaide's defenders of Borlaise, Keane, and Worrell typically focus on defending their matchups in a more traditional manner of standing to their opponents back shoulder one-on-one rather than aggressively intercepting in the air. However, Collingwood's defensive strategy differs, with players like Frampton averaging three intercept marks per game and Moore averaging 2.7, ranking 13th and 18th respectively in the league.
Despite the disconnect between the kicker and the forward inside the attacking 50 last week, Essendon's forwards demonstrated resilience by keeping the ball in play, enabling smaller forwards to effectively apply pressure at ground level.
Jones has consistently displayed this ability throughout the year, setting a high standard for his teammates to follow. If Essendon can consistently bring the ball to ground in a neutral position, it will allow them to capitalize on their success with tackling in the front third. Currently averaging 12.5 tackles in that zone, the Bombers are ranked in the top five in this area, a major improvement in where they sat in 2023.
Small Essendon forwards must remain vigilant of Quaynor and Noble, these two lead in handball receives in the back third and initiate many possession chains through intercepts at ground level.
Essendon's small forward group has been on the improve as the season goes on in being able to disrupt this type of play effectively.
The Bombers' approach must encompass more than just scoreboard impact, nullifying Collingwood's rebounding threats is equally crucial.
The job ahead for Essendon”
Collingwood ranks 13th in disposal differential this year, with a -11 margin against opponents. The gap widens to -22.3 when compared to the Bombers.
Collingwood averages 50.8 inside 50s per game, placing them 12th in the league. However, Essendon faces an even higher average of 53.8 inside 50s directed towards its defensive third. This highlights another area where Essendon needs to reduce its numbers to match the allowances of Collingwood's opponents.
Essendon's most recent performance against Adelaide showcased their best intercept performance since round 10 of 2023 against Richmond, along with their most effective conversion of turnovers into shots at goal this season. However, they'll very likely need to elevate their game further.
Collingwood holds a +4 differential in shots from turnovers against opponents this season, boosted by last week's +14 performance against Port Adelaide.
Yet, this translates into a -57 differential in scores, primarily due to their inaccuracy.
On the other hand, Essendon has a -22 differential in shots from turnovers, with only last week's +9 against Adelaide marking a positive outcome this year.
This deficit amounts to a loss of 90 points.
Can Essendon enhance its performance enough to impact this aspect, or will they rely on an alternative scoring avenue?
“The alternative”
Under McRae, Collingwood has historically prioritized post clearance over stoppage clearances, focusing on contested possession and tackling pressure to regain possession and move the ball forward with speed.
Despite ranking 15th for stoppage clearance differential, they excel in intercepting the ball, ranking 5th in this regard.
Conversely, Essendon ranks 5th for stoppage clearance differential but struggles with intercepts, ranking 13th.
Look for Essendon to gain initial possession, while Collingwood will want apply pressure to disrupt ball movement.
The Bombers will need to absorb this pressure and utilize support to transition the ball into space and forward effectively.
Conversely, if Collingwood gains possession first, Essendon must respond with similar intensity to disrupt their exits.
Both teams heavily rely on scoring from this source, with Essendon boasting a +6 differential in shots from clearances against their previous opponents, resulting in a 36 point difference, while Collingwood holds a +4 differential in shots across their six games, totaling a 29 point difference.
“The contest of uncontested”
This season, the Magpies find themselves ranked 13th for uncontested possessions, with a -9.2 differential reflecting their struggle in securing possessions outside of contests. These numbers highlight the challenges Collingwood has faced in 2024, with credit owed to their opponents.
In contrast, Essendon holds a +14.2 differential compared to Collingwood in the same measurement.
However, the Bombers have allowed their six previous opponents to amass 15.5 more uncontested possessions than Collingwood's current average.
This underscores another area where Essendon needs to enhance its performance to match the productivity of the Magpies opponents.
One aspect contributing to Collingwood's uncontested possession struggles this year is their difficulty in securing uncontested marks to facilitate ball movement.
Their tally of 59.7 uncontested marks outside of the forward 50 ranks dead last in the competition. Last year, they averaged 66.6, just below the AFL average.
Essendon must maintain this trend.
The Bombers currently allow 76.7 uncontested marks outside their opponents' forward 50 after six games, placing them 15th in this category for the year. This statistic is unlikely to lead to victory.
There needs to be immense pressure on disposals and strategic decision making against Collingwood.
It's crucial not to lose the territory gained from hard work by failing to apply enough pressure the other way.
“Name names”
Once again, Nick Daicos dominates Collingwood's key statistical categories, including kicks, disposals, inside 50s, contested and uncontested possessions, groundballs, stoppage clearances, and pressure acts.
This comprehensive contribution correlates with the highest percentage of score involvements for Collingwood.
Daicos consistently shines as a star player, posing a challenge for Essendon to dim his brilliance.
Even a slight reduction, such as a 10% decrease in disposals, could significantly impact the game, affecting the players he involves through his vision and skills, as well as the team's forward entries and scoreboard impact.
This is where Caldwell's role becomes crucial. He has demonstrated the resilience to match up against star players like Liberatore while remaining effective with the ball.
Tight coverage, positioning himself on the back shoulder, and constant awareness of Daicos' movements, whether starting from half back, half forward, or transitioning into the midfield, will be essential.
Applying collective pressure in tight spaces will force Daicos into more turnovers, currently averaging one every 7.5 disposals.
Similar to the challenge posed by Horne Francis at centre bounces, De Goey presents a similar threat here.
He’s starting in over 77% of Collingwood's centre bounces and leading their centre clearances alongside Daicos.
Given their undersized forward 50, aside from a resting Cameron or Cox, Essendon cannot afford to allow easy exits into that area and let Collingwood utilise their leg speed advantage out on the lead.
Durham is likely to assume this role at centre bounces, given his combination of size, speed, and determination. His attributes can challenge De Goey in close quarters, while his ability to spread from these areas will test De Goey's defensive capabilities in nullifying his impact.
“The last word”
Essendon's game style and execution have been steadily improving, with incremental progress seen week by week and quarter by quarter. This upcoming game will be the ultimate test of these improvements, challenging them for longer durations than any previous match this season.
Facing a team like this presents a unique opportunity for Essendon, offering a different challenge than what they've encountered before. They should embrace this experience as a chance to measure themselves against a top class team and seize every opportunity presented in front of the massive crowd.
Go Dons!
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