Intro.
A lot has changed for both teams since their last matchup eight games ago. Essendon has spent the year searching for a combination that can take the team further while also assessing what the experienced players on the list are truly capable of in different positions. In the last few weeks, Scott has finally seen enough of certain individuals, and Hardwick has experimented with the positioning of players as he tries to determine who fits where in his preferred mode of play.
Round 12.
Tempo and execution were the two main factors in the result last time. When Essendon was able to control the tempo through uncontested possessions and marks between the 50-metre arcs to aid ball movement, they looked like the better team. However, as the game progressed and their work rate dropped to find those outlets, it then played into Gold Coast's and Hardwick’s preferred style of high transition football, and with that, the turnover game began.
By not advancing the ball further up the ground with longer and deeper possession chains, finding dangerous or meaningful targets inside the forward 50 became more difficult, making it harder to keep the ball in the front half.
This inability allowed Gold Coast to generate 11 shots at goal beginning in their back half, with eight starting between the centre bounce and the Essendon 50-metre line.
Execution hurt most in the third quarter as Essendon had 50 possessions in the front half in that 20 minutes but only converted them into two goals and five behinds from seven shots at goal from 13 entries.
Scoring profile.
Essendon will want to improve its defensive setup this week. The team's inability to defend turnovers has been a problem all season, and the last time they played Gold Coast, it was one of their worst. Eighteen shots at goal is the equal 2nd most they have conceded this year, equal with Geelong in round 16 and only behind Sydney, who had 22 in round 2, which is exactly what Hardwick wants. In the Suns' wins this season, they have averaged 17 shots at goal from turnovers, while in their losses, they only average 11.5 a game.
This season, Essendon ranks 14th in scores from turnover differential, only above Melbourne, West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne. More recently, that differential has blown out even further; in the last eight games, it’s -76 points a game. To be a legitimate finals contender, you need to be in the top half of this table, and to be a genuine contender, you need to be in the top bracket.
Since round 17, the Bombers are conceding 24.5 shots at goal a game, with the opposition going at a rate of 49.1% shots per inside 50 rate and a goal converted at 26% per entry.
Using expected score, an analysis that calculates the expected accuracy of each shot on goal based on its location on the ground and the level of pressure the player faced from records over the last decade, Essendon’s opposition has had the 3rd greatest difference between their expected and actual accuracy for shots taken.
Yes, the opposition has been “shooting the lights out” when kicking for goal, but the issue is that once the opposition has the opportunity and gets close enough to have a shot at goal, Essendon can no longer impact the outcome of that kick; the work to impact needed to be done further up the ground.
Ball movement.
Gold Coast is almost the complete opposite of Essendon in their motivation to move the ball forward. They want to go fast and direct, while Essendon prefers a safer way forward by keeping possession as much and for as long as possible, though last week it was a slightly different approach when the opportunity arose, especially early in the game and of course when the game needed to be won in the last quarter.
The Bombers will have two basic options for success in this game. One is to stick with their traditional method of building the ball up with uncontested marking and forcing the Suns players to spend most of the time defending without the football. We saw this most recently in the win over Collingwood, and this same method worked for Brisbane against Gold Coast twice this year. In round eight, the Lions took 88 more marks, and in round 20, 47 more. The other option is to win contests and win them consistently, both in defending when the ball is coming at them in the air and at ground level.
While Gold Coast prefers the contest game to aid their turnover game, their inside-the-contest work at ground level in stoppages isn’t their strength. Over the last five games, they’re -3.9 differential at groundball contests. Last time they played, Gold Coast had the edge at ground level, winning the stat by seven. The early season hunt to win contests in this manner has dissipated for Essendon, and the rot that it has now become started against the Suns. In the eight games since, the differential has ballooned out to 67, a figure that will have to be improved immediately. Only Caldwell is ranked in the top 50 players for groundball wins inside the contest in the last five games.
Forward half.
Because of Essendon’s preferred way to move the ball forward by foot slow and methodically, they can only generate 10.1 one-on-one contests in the front half, ranked 13th. The shining light is that when they do have the opportunity to compete that way, they have won over a quarter of them in the last five games. The battle this week is that the Gold Coast defenders have been up to the job in that same time, only losing just over 14% of their one-on-ones, currently the second best, with Collins leading the way as the 9th best-ranked player in the competition.
Forward 50 groundball.
The aerial battle forward is only half the battle, with inside-50 groundball wins being the next mission. A lot of talk has been on Essendon’s team selection and lack of selecting small pressure forwards as the main issue. While there was a slight shift last week, more can still be done. Even when that issue gets solved, the true value they provide will depend on what happens ahead.
I wrote earlier about Essendon’s preferred ball movement method, and this choice doesn’t help maximise what these forwards can offer. When winning the ball back, it would be more beneficial if Essendon were to go quicker forward, as it allows more space for these forwards to use their pace and become options to be linked in chains for run, carry, and overlap. It allows them to work up the ground and force their direct matchups to make instantaneous decisions on whether to follow them up or to hold back. These decisions are crucial because if they make the wrong one, there can be maximum consequences. If it’s slow movement forward, the ball ends up coming “at them” only, instead of them also having the option to be front-facing and going towards goal.
I’ve said on numerous occasions that I understand the choice that was made to move forward because of the list profile and choices available, but I do hope that change is made as part of the next evolution.
Post clearance.
Earlier, I wrote about Gold Coast's contest work inside stoppages not being a strength, but their post-clearance contested possession is one of their strengths. Since round 12, Gold Coast is ranked 6th in post-clearance contested possession differential, which is the ability to win a contested possession immediately after the ball leaves the stoppage area.
There are multiple ways this can be done, with the simplest being winning a one-on-one ahead of the field or behind it, or by outnumbering the opposition through setup or with the work rate of players to get to the next contest. Essendon had a recent experience with this, as two weeks ago they came up against the number one-ranked side in St. Kilda, and as we saw, failed miserably.
Midfield.
For a team that boasts a midfield mix of Rowell, Anderson, Miller, Flanders, and Humphrey, it’s surprising to see their clearance differential, both at centre bounce and at stoppages around the ground, in the negative over the course of the season. With Miller out due to injury since round 17, those numbers have gotten worse, as they currently rank 11th since then, meanwhile Essendon doesn’t fair much better in 10th.
Outside of the centre bounce, the Suns only average 24.4 points from stoppages, putting them 15th this season and a clear 18th since round 17, doubling down on their heavy reliance on getting their turnover game in order. With Essendon’s inability to defend turnovers on a consistent basis, and preferably not playing into Hardwick’s strengths of high transition, the stoppage source could be a way to success. In wins, the Bombers are averaging 10.45 shots at goal from clearance, while in losses, only 8.55.
In last week's victory over Fremantle, Essendon was able to turn their 32 clearances from stoppages into a shot on goal over 46% of the time, with over 61% of the total score coming this way.
With Miller out, it’s predominantly been left to Rowell to do the hard work inside the contest at ground level in recent weeks. The only other player that ranks in the top 50 for the Suns is Davies, and after serving his three-match suspension, I would expect him to be added to the lineup at selection. These two prefer to use their hands to feed out to Anderson and Flanders, with Flanders' role being changed from rebounding in the back half earlier in the season to now becoming part of the midfield mix. While injuries and suspension lessened their options, Graham was added to that mixture.
In round 12, it was Rowell and Anderson who dominated the midfield battle. Nine coaches' votes for Rowell, eight for Anderson, and only one for Merrett show what the coaches thought. The two Suns combined for 24% of their team’s contested possessions and over 57% of their clearances. While Essendon still won the clearance battle overall with a wider spread, knowing those two are the predominant dangers, a more concerted effort this time should be expected.
The depth of options in the middle of the ground certainly lies with Essendon, with Merrett, Caldwell, Durham, Shiel and Parish, who looked to be back to his best last week after a quiet return the week before. This group needs to make the right decisions inside and outside the contest for Rowell and Anderson, as well as Flanders.
In the last five games, Flanders is ranked 6th among all players for handball receives since transitioning from defence. This is the biggest difference compared to the last matchup, as he had 18 of his 33 possessions in the back half uncontested and rebounding.
Will want to see Essendon challenge their midfield in accountability and force them into defensive roles and test their accountability,
as past opponents have exploited their lack of two-way running when necessary.
Defenders.
Down back, Gold Coast defenders Collins and Ballard play a more passive role, focusing on their direct matchups as their priority and positioning themselves to the “back shoulder” of that matchup, rather than generating a plus one behind the ball or taking an aggressive starting position
Of the key defenders, Andrew traditionally plays the aggressive role with more natural dare in his game and is more likely than the rest of the group to intercept mark rather than spoil.
Interestingly, in last week’s game against West Coast, he was sent forward and had an immediate impact. Based on that performance, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start there once again.
Langford had Collins as his shadow last time and unfortunately lowered his colours to him so I would expect the same matchup once again from Hardwick.
Last time around, Langford spent the majority of the time as the deepest forward, which suits Collins, as this is an area he prefers and so do the team. Like I explained earlier, he is a traditional defender who likes to play tight on his matchup and this can present an opportunity for Essendon and Langford.
In the last few weeks, Langford has spent time further up the ground and this would be a good idea once again in order to force Collins out of his comfort zone down back and in turn, expose other players who are more vulnerable as last line defenders such as Ballard, Powell and Uwlan. If Andrew does line up in the front half, it is an undersized defensive third.
Earlier, I discussed the different strategies the two teams use to advance the ball. This season, no team moves the ball faster or more directly towards the goal than Gold Coast, which is something Essendon has had problems with multiple times this year.
After Gold Coast, the next six teams that move the ball the fastest are Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, and Melbourne. Essendon has lost to three of these teams, drawn with one, and narrowly won against the other two by six and 12 points, respectively. Notably, the next team on this list is Brisbane, whom Essendon will face in round 24.
This strategy presents a challenge to Essendon’s back half, both in terms of positioning against their opponents and their individual one-on-one capabilities. In short, Essendon defenders need to simplify their approach and change their priorities.
Both McKay and Laverde need to focus on defending their matchups first rather than playing loose and attempting to intercept in the air. If the opportunity arises to take a mark while standing next to the matchup then take it.
Since Round 17, McKay has been involved in an average of 3.8 one-on-one contests per game, the 7th most among all players, and is losing over 26% of them. This poor performance, along with Laverde's loss rate of over 32% over the course of the season, is mainly due to prioritising incorrectly, which is impacting their positioning in matchups at crucial moments to at least halve contests. This has been the biggest disappointment of the season's second half for me.
The last time McKay lined up against King, he lowered his colours. In his last five games, King has averaged five shots at goal per game, only behind Ugle Hagan, Cameron, Georgiardes, Daniher and Curnow in this time. He is winning over 64% of his one-on-one contests, which ranks him number one among all players. If it wasn’t for his inaccuracy, his impact would’ve been even bigger.
While King and Andrew are expected to be the tall targets for Essendon defenders in the air, the small to medium defenders have significant work ahead. McGrath, Kelly, and Redman need to lock down on a mix of opponents who are strong over the ball and possess dangerous pace when given any leeway.
Long is averaging 2.6 marks inside 50 in his last five games, ranking 15th among all players, and has kicked eight goals during that time, the most of any Suns player. This mix, combined with pace options that Hardwick can select from, including Rosas, Rogers, Johnston, Holman, Berry, and Humphrey, means Essendon must be on high alert for all ground balls in the back third.
Conclusion.
The determination to rally when the situation looked unlikely last week will hopefully lead to a change in attitude coming into this game.
Throughout the second half of the season, the narrative that the club tends to falter during crucial stages has persisted, but now there’s another prime opportunity to continue dispelling that myth.
With only three games remaining in the regular season, it’s important to focus not just on the final scores, but on the underlying progress that has been the cornerstone of the 2024 season.
This year has been all about embracing an evolving process and prioritising long-term success over immediate results. With the right mindset, the club can continue to improve toward the broader goal of development.
Go Dons !
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