Bombers vs Suns Preview

Finally.

Following months of buildup, Essendon was set to kick off its 2025 season in Opening Round with a trip to the Gold Coast, with that postponed fixture now scheduled for the end of the season. Instead, this matchup becomes their first encounter after 14 games and a well-timed bye, one that looked to arrive at the right time for an undermanned and inexperienced lineup.

Refreshed by that 15-day break, the Bombers will be hoping to launch into the final third of the season with a strong performance, one they can use as a springboard to build momentum and finish the year on a high.

Bad memories.

Both encounters against Gold Coast in 2024 were ones Essendon had every chance to win.

In Round 12, the Bombers’ early work put the game on their terms, but as the contest wore on, their work rate slowly dropped away, disrupting their default plan and ultimately forcing them into Hardwick’s preferred high-transition style.

Then came Round 22, a game no Essendon fan wants to relive. Inaccuracy in front of goal in the last quarter proved decisive, with a goal after the siren bringing an early end to their season in August. That frustration is likely still fresh, and the motivation to make amends should remain undeniable.

Moving on.

For the most part, Essendon’s midfield has held up its end, winning contests at stoppages and turning them into clearances. In recent weeks, that group has also worked hard defensively to support a backline stretched thin by injury. But against Fremantle, despite their efforts, they couldn’t match the Dockers’ strength at stoppage, a loss that created too many flow-on effects, particularly in territory and scoreboard damage.

This week, they’ll be asked to lift again, this time against a side whose core strength also lies at stoppage.

Two weeks ago against Fremantle, Essendon lost pre-clearance contests 58–35, their biggest differential of the season, and also finished -22 in first possession, their worst result under Brad Scott.

Heading into that clash, the Bombers had been ranked number one in the competition at “stripping” possession — denying their opposition the ability to turn first possession into an effective clearance. That’s the version of the midfield they’ll need to rediscover this week.

Gold Coast come into this matchup ranked 4th at pre-clearance contest and 4th for turning first possession into a clearance, with Rowell, unsurprisingly, the most damaging in both phases.

Of all players averaging at least seven first possessions per game, only Serong is more efficient at turning them into a clearance, and

the Essendon midfield got a clear look at what that level looks like last time out.

Caldwell also features among the league’s best in this area, but the likely candidate to go head-to-head with Rowell is Setterfield. Shutting him down completely is unlikely, few can, but if Essendon can at least limit his capacity to link up with his captain in Anderson, it could go a long way toward disrupting the Suns’ primary midfield engine.

No midfield partnership connects more consistently from stoppage than Rowell to Anderson, and no duo links up more often in the centre square. It’s a key reason Gold Coast are the second ranked team for centre bounce clearance differential, and why they also average just under 15 points per game from this source, the 3rd most in the league heading into Round 17.

The Suns convert 26.6% of their clearances into a shot at goal, the 3rd best rate right now, but if there’s one part of Essendon’s game that has been reliable this season, it’s been their ability to defend stoppage losses from resulting in scores.

What winning the ball in this part of the ground does allow, though, is crucial field position, something Essendon has struggled with in multiple ways this season: first, in maintaining the territory they’ve gained, and second, in regaining it once it’s lost.

In and out.

Generating enough forward 50 entries has been a problem for Essendon of late, and when they do get the ball in there, they’ve been the worst team at keeping it in, with over 29% of opposition possession chains starting in that area traveling the length of the field into Essendon’s defensive 50, and 13% ending in a shot at goal.

This has mostly stemmed from Essendon allowing too many uncontested marks through the back two-thirds of the ground, conceding 83.4 per game and offering little resistance in transition. But this week presents a different kind of challenge, it’s not a method Hardwick relied on at Richmond, nor one he’s adopted since taking over at Gold Coast.

The Suns average the 2nd fewest uncontested marks per game, with only 54 taken in their back two-thirds. Their preference is to move the ball long and direct by foot, whether to a contest or not, and rely on players ahead of the ball to win it, either one-on-one or by having a “wave” of front-facing teammates arrive to outnumber the opposition at the fall of the ball.

That system was a strength during Richmond’s premiership era, and it worked for the Suns early this season. But in recent weeks, it hasn’t held up.

They’ve struggled to consistently find a forward ahead of the ball to win those contests and haven’t had the midfield support pushing up to help. Over the past five games, only King and Walter rank inside the top 50 among forwards, and just one midfielder in Fiorini sits inside the top 100 league-wide for post-clearance contest wins.

Anyone available?

Whether any defenders return this week remains to be seen, but reinforcements would be a welcome boost to an Essendon backline that has been conceding over 57 inside 50s per game since the win over Sydney — and no team is averaging more entries this year than the Suns.

Earlier this season, Gold Coast’s efficiency, both in finding a marking target inside 50 and generating a shot from their entries, sat comfortably above league average. But just like their ability to win contests post-clearance, that effectiveness has dropped away in recent weeks.

Since Round 11, Gold Coast rank 13th for marks inside 50 per entry and 17th for shots at goal per inside 50, with Long having to shoulder most of the burden, leading the Suns in both marks and shots on goal from marks during that period.

Not only has Gold Coast’s ability to convert their entries diminished, but they’ve also shown signs of vulnerability when they don’t retain the ball inside their front third. In the last five games, they rank as the 8th easiest side to transition against from defensive 50 to inside 50, with over 23% of opposition rebounds going end-to-end unbroken.

If Essendon can improve their ball movement, which, to this point, has been inconsistent, the forwards could get more of the kind of looks they had against Fremantle.

Formline.

This season, the Bombers have averaged a scoring shot from just under 43% of their inside 50s, the 6th worst rate in the competition, and have marked the ball inside that area 22% of the time. Against the Dockers, those numbers improved dramatically: marking 38.2% of entries (clearly their best return for the year) and generated a scoring shot from over 52% of their inside 50 entries (their best).

But they still need more supply.

From Round 11 on, the Bombers have averaged just 45 inside 50s per game, the lowest of any side. With Wright averaging the most marks in that zone since his breakout 2022 season, and Caddy ranked 25th among key forwards for contests won ahead of the ball, it’s clear the forward line is in form. They just need more chances.

Err.

I’ve left the biggest concern in this game until last.

Only three sides (Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong) have a better conversion rate from opposition turnovers than Gold Coast, with 21.7% of those chains ending in a score. Just five teams average more points than the Suns from this source, a clear payoff for Hardwick’s high-transition game style, punishing sides for losing the ball under pressure and hurting them on the rebound.

Conversely, Essendon is conceding 57 points per game from turnovers, the 2nd most of any side, a clear area in need of improvement if the result is to go their way. It starts with being able to handle the pressure: decision-making to identify the best outlet, and then execution to help ease the “heat.”

Going the other way will also require a lift, with motivation available from Essendon’s first half against Fremantle and GWS’s performance against Gold Coast two weeks ago.

The Giants stood up to the Suns’ high-transition game, not just defensively but offensively too, finishing with 17 shots at goal for 77 points, the most Gold Coast has conceded this year.

Combine that with Essendon’s best first half this season in converting intercepts into shots at goal, 29%, and the ability to keep that going over four quarters shows there’s real potential for reward.

Short sharp notes.

Gold Coast games this season feature the most contests and stoppages outside of centre bounce, while Essendon games feature the least.

Witts attends the most ruck contests of any player this year, almost 20% higher than Essendon’s top ruck in Goldstein, and when he does, no one takes it out of the air more often.

Rowell is ranked 2nd and Setterfield 5th for average tackles per game.

The Bombers have only taken 37 intercept marks across the last four games, with their average of 9.2 the lowest of any side in that time, well down on their season average to that point of 13.6.

Kako is the second-youngest player among the top 50 for inside 50 groundballs won.

Essendon and Gold Coast have the lowest kick-to-handball rates in the competition, but while the Bombers gain the least territory by foot, the Suns gain the second most.

Only Taylor (GWS) averages more intercept possessions than Collins among all defenders.

Nine to go.

It’s been a tough season to date, form and consistency have been undermined largely by instability in selection, with injuries and structural changes forcing the Bombers to cycle through 40 players already, more than any other team.

Some stability in the run home would certainly help performance, but if there’s one positive to take from this availability issue, it’s that the coaches and list management team have had a genuine look at almost the entire list. That exposure will prove invaluable when it comes to making critical decisions on who can build into the next phase of this side’s development.

Some tough calls lie ahead across the final nine games, and they start here.

Go Bombers!