Dockers vs Bombers Preview

Last one before a break.

It’s been a challenging five-week stretch to say the least for Essendon — just one win, a growing injury list, and seven debutants called upon earlier than expected to shoulder the load at senior level. Last week’s showing would have knocked the stuffing out of, on average, the fourth-youngest and fourth-least experienced lineup in the competition this season. Despite that performance, there had been moments of promise and glimpses of what this group may become.

Now comes the long haul to Perth for a final outing before a much-needed bye, so let’s hope they can dig deep and close out this block with a display that reflects the resilience they’ve shown in patches, even as the results haven’t always followed.

A quick recap from last time.

I cannot recall any Essendon match in recent history that was so heavily influenced by one aspect of the game. The Round 21 clash against Fremantle was dictated by stoppages, with the clearance battle central to the momentum swings across each quarter. It was always going to be pivotal, but I didn’t anticipate just how decisive it would become.

Coming into the game, Fremantle led the competition in clearance differential at +161, the biggest differential recorded in nine years. So for Essendon to win seven of the first eight centre clearances and generate four shots on goal from them was an impressive and unexpected start.

The middle two quarters underlined how much weight stoppages carried. Fremantle managed only one shot from clearances in the first quarter, but converted three of their seven stoppage wins into goals in the second.

That dominance extended into the third quarter, where the Dockers won clearances 12 to three, producing five scoring shots from those stoppages.

Though Essendon lost the clearance count 7-10 in the final quarter, they made the most of their opportunities, turning over 57% of their stoppage wins into shots at goal and scoring 19 of their 33 points from this source. The match famously ended with an Essendon centre clearance and Durham slotting a point with 33 seconds left, sealing a remarkable comeback from 25 points down at three-quarter time.

This time, but the same?

Just like in their previous meeting, stoppages looms as the biggest factor in shaping how this game unfolds.

Fremantle hasn’t dominated the clearance game this season like they did in 2024, sitting around league average in differential. But what they lack in volume, they’ve made up for in impact. They convert 25.2% of clearances into shots at goal, the fifth-highest strike rate in the competition, behind only the Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Hawthorn, and Collingwood.

That efficiency has translated into scoreboard impact. Since Round 9, the Dockers are ranked third for points from stoppage, averaging just under 40 points per game from this source, behind only the Bulldogs and Cats.

At the heart of that is Serong. He leads the AFL in total clearances with 8.5 per game, the most he’s ever averaged across his six-year career. Of all players in the competition who average over six clearances a game, only Rowell of the Suns and Kennedy of the Bulldogs turn their first possession at stoppage into effective clearances at a better rate (minimum three games played)

Serong’s biggest damage comes from centre bounce rather than around-the-ground stoppages, once again leading all comers in that area. It’s a major reason Fremantle have averaged four shots at goal directly from centre bounce chains over the last five games, the second most in the league, with a +7 points differential across that stretch.

But Essendon do have options to go head-to-head with him.

While Serong leads Fremantle’s midfield mix, with Brayshaw in close support, the two Essendon midfielders that sit between them this season for total clearances are Caldwell and, after just two games back, Parish. Both are more than capable of working in tandem, not only to limit Serong’s ability to win first possession, but also to generate their own supply from stoppage when the ball hits the deck.

If there’s one part of Essendon’s defensive profile that has held up despite the growing injury toll, it’s their ability to restrict scores from stoppage.

Small wins.

Remarkably, for a side conceding over 92 points a game and sitting 12th on the ladder, only Carlton, Collingwood and Adelaide defend an opponent’s clearance becoming a score at a better rate than Essendon’s 23.01%.

Yes — that number is real.

The Bombers are only averaging just over 28 points against from this score source since the Sydney victory, the fifth least in the competition in that time. A repeat of those figures this week would be more than a strong start against an opponent so dangerous in this area.

What’s missing, though, is enough reward from their own stoppage work.

Bigger wins?

Essendon are averaging a +2.8 clearance differential across the season, ranked fifth, behind only Brisbane, the Bulldogs, North Melbourne and Gold Coast. But of those teams, three rank inside the top seven for converting clearances into shots at goal, the Bulldogs (1st), Lions (7th) and Suns (6th). Essendon, by contrast, sit 16th, converting at just 22%.

Now onto the two biggest concerns, as they’ve been almost every week for Essendon this year. First, defending transition, which has become a real strength for Fremantle in 2025.

A new identity.

Last season, the Dockers’ ball movement relied heavily on  kick-mark, averaging just over 85 uncontested marks per game, the 7th most in the competition (Essendon were 3rd). It was their main method of shifting the ball from defensive 50 into the front half. But it came at a cost: with the 3rd fewest metres gained per disposal (Essendon were last), their forwards were often left with little space to work in, as opposition defences had time to set up behind the ball.

That’s shifted significantly this season.

The uncontested mark game has dropped to 70.7 a game, the 3rd least in the competition, with less than 60 of those now taken in the back two-thirds of the ground, down from almost 73 last year. It’s brought with it extra speed on the ball and a much more direct line to goal, now the 5th most metres gained per disposal.

They’re no longer over-possessing either — down from 362 possessions a game (4th most) to 340 this year (15th) — which has meant a small lift in inside 50s and, more importantly, greater space for their forwards to work into. Something Essendon can’t afford to allow, given the missing personnel behind the ball again this week.

The work, then, has to happen earlier in the chain. Essendon’s midfield will need to be aware, both of their direct opponent and what’s happening around them, in order to defend the overlap handball and run, close down space, maintain pressure in tight to help apply effective tackles and keep the ball in the area.

On notice.

One part I’ll be watching closely is whether Fremantle stick with the method they’ve employed so far this season.

Essendon have shown their weakness to the competition in giving up uncontested marks weekly, allowing the most on average to their opponents. Will that force the Dockers to abandon their preferred style?

Really can’t add anything here.

The second concern, unfortunately, is defending turnovers, an issue that stretches back well beyond last week’s abomination. There’s not much tactical detail to unpack here outside of decision making and execution. Since Dreamtime, it’s largely been poor disposals by foot that have led to turnovers — more so than by hand — and most of them are happening in the back half, making them harder to defend so close to goal.

If Essendon can use better judgment and skills, there is a chink in Fremantle’s armour, but it would require the Bombers to revert to a previous version of themselves.

Time for a change back?…

Essendon’s handball game, which I covered earlier this week

https://thebombersblog.wixsite.com/thebombersblog/post/bombers-vs-cats-review

— has troubled most teams in recent weeks. But Fremantle’s weakness this year has shown up when the game is in “control mode.”

In all five of their losses this year, their opponents have controlled the tempo through uncontested marks, averaging at least 84 in each of those games. By contrast, in seven of their eight wins, Fremantle have kept their opponents to fewer than 82, the exception being Richmond, who managed 104.

Does this mean Essendon will revert to their previous method, at least for this week?

More inside 50s.

We know the dilemmas the Bombers face behind the ball, so the question becomes whether the front third can help close the gap by kicking a score that genuinely challenges Fremantle.

In four of their five losses this season, the Dockers have conceded more than 55 inside 50s, a rate that, over the course of the year, would rank 14th. And when teams have broken through, they’ve made it count.

Fremantle’s season average for allowing opponents to turn an inside 50 into a scoring shot sits at just 42%, the sixth-best rate in the competition. But in their losses, that figure blows out to 60.5%.

Essendon will need to lift in multiple areas to reach that level of efficiency, but it starts with simply generating more looks.

The Bombers are averaging just 46.1 inside 50s per game, ranked 17th ahead of only Richmond. That said, when they do go forward, they have been relatively effective, ranked eighth for marks inside 50 per entry, with four of the teams above them currently sitting inside the top eight.

Wright will be looking to build on his return to form inside the area, while Caddy continues to impress with his ability to win contests ahead of the ball, he’s the second-youngest forward in the league for post-clearance contested possessions. Alongside a promising debut from May last week, all three would relish more opportunities to use their aerial abilities, if Essendon can give them enough supply to work with.

Short sharp notes.

Essendon has won just four first quarters this season, averaging a 12.6-point deficit, their worst quarter for both scoring and differential. In contrast, Fremantle’s strongest quarter is the first, winning eight and averaging a +3.1-point margin.

The last team to debut 11 players in a single season was North Melbourne in 2017 — also under Brad Scott.

Based on last week’s selection and the debut of Visentini, Essendon is set to field players in their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th career games.

Only four players with at least three games this season are averaging more contested marks than Treacy. Darcy (Bulldogs), Gawn (Demons), Taylor and Hogan (Giants).

Wright is averaging 2.4 marks inside 50 across his last five games, his highest average over a five-game stretch since 2022.

Give it all you’ve got.

Two finals-like atmospheres under lights at the MCG, and two demanding performances against sides currently entrenched in the top three, will have offered plenty of valuable lessons for a group still working to build connection, having been thrown together quickly amid a whirlwind five weeks of change.

A strong, confidence-boosting showing on the road this week, heading into the mid-season bye, could go a long way to steadying the group’s mindset, restoring belief, and setting the tone for a more consistent and composed second half of the season, especially as more experienced teammates become available to add support and stability around the edges.

Go Bombers!