“On the road again”
-Willie Nelson
For the third time in six weeks, Essendon is boarding a flight and heading interstate, returning to South Australia for its round six clash against the Adelaide Crows. Here's to hoping for a favorable outcome for Essendon this time at Adelaide Oval.
In the previous encounter against Adelaide, Essendon displayed one of its most impressive first-half performances of 2023.
The Bombers kicked off strongly, registering 13 shots at goal in the first quarter, with five of them originating directly from centre bounces. By halftime, Essendon had surged to an impressive 21 shots at goal from 40 inside 50 entries.
However, Essendon’s dominance wasn’t limited to their offensive performance.
Their defensive resilience was also noteworthy, as they effectively disrupted Adelaide’s ball movement.
Notably, Essendon capitalised on turnovers, scoring 78 points out of their total 115 directly from that source, marking their highest points tally from turnovers for 2023.
However, the second half unfolded differently. Adelaide managed to stifle Essendon's ball movement, leading to repeated entries as the Bombers attempted to exit.
Six goals from eight shots in the last quarter from the Crows narrowed the final margin, but by then the game had already been decided.
Adelaide has faced significant challenges at the start of this year, a stark contrast to their dominance in scoring rankings last season. They led the competition in four key categories: shots per inside 50, scoring shots per inside 50, goals per inside 50, and an impressive average of 29.3 shots at goal per game. This made them formidable opponents, not to be engaged in a scoreboard shootout. However, this year, up until last week, has seen a reversal of fortunes for them.
After four games, they ranked in the bottom two for shots per inside 50, scoring shots per inside 50, and goals per inside 50. However, I'm inclined to give them some leniency up to this early stage of the season, a point I'll cover shortly.
Was round five the awakening of the sleeping giant?
They managed 18 marks inside 50 from 49 entries, a 36.7% conversion rate that easily eclipsed their season average of 16.5%.
Their 25 shots at goal also showed an upward trend compared to their previous season average of less than 20 from the first four games.
Scoring 100 points was an enormous boost from their season average of 57.
In 2023, Adelaide showcased their formidable forward line with Rankine, Pedlar, and Rachele collectively amassing an impressive total of 84 goals. However, a significant portion of their scoring prowess was attributed to targeting the aging Taylor Walker.
Walker's remarkable contribution of 76 goals stood out, particularly as he nears his 34th birthday, marking his best season yet and surpassing his previous records set in 2012 and 2015.
Notably, over 25% of Adelaide’s goals relied on Walker. Despite finishing as the highest-scoring team last year, Adelaide had the fewest variety of goal scorers throughout the season, once again underscoring their dependence on Walker’s contributions.
In Walker's first four games of the season, his scoring output has been limited, with only seven goals. He has often found himself positioned further from the attacking 50 than desired by both himself and the team. Nearly half of his disposals have taken place outside Adelaide's forward third. A significant factor contributing to this is their midfield's struggle to effectively rebound and generate efficient ball movement for meaningful forward entries.
Laird, Crouch, and Dawson anchor Adelaide's midfield, focusing on contested possessions, while Soligo, Berry, Rankine, Pedlar, and Rachele provide rotation. Although the starting trio lacks speed, they excel in winning contested possessions, while Dawson adds flair with his decision-making and precise kicking. Berry often serves as a substitute, specializing in shutting down key opposition midfielders. With Crouch suspended this week, Berry is likely to play the full game, if so, look for him to run alongside Merrett.
The secondary group offers speed and thrills, wielding their skill sets to inflict damage.
Soligo shines with his pace and aggressive approach, while Rankine and Rachele make their mark at the centre bounce before transitioning forward to exploit mismatches in congestion.
In the Crows' recent match, Rankine participated in 61% of 34 centre bounces, over 20% more than any other game he’s played, making a significant impact with three goals, a goal assist, and six additional score involvements from his 21 disposals in the forward half.
Dawson is the primary playmaker, often positioned just off the back of stoppages to receive handballs from Laird, Crouch, and Berry, allowing him to utilize his kicking prowess with clear vision. He poses the most threat with his damaging style of play.
Essendon's balance between inside and outside players is significantly influenced by Dawson's role.
His matchup around the ground must closely monitor and limit his time and space and force other players with inferior kicking abilities into making those decisions.
In the past, Setterfield has demonstrated his ability to neutralize the opposition's top playmaker, however with him unavailable, the responsibility of assuming his role will likely fall upon Durham, who showcased his talents in this area last week against Bontempelli, let’s see if he can back it up.
Their entire midfield unit demonstrates tenacity in contesting for the ball but faces significant challenges once possession transitions away from the source, especially when the opposition gains control.
This is where Essendon can capitalize.
Thus far, the Bombers have displayed a willingness to support the contest with numerical advantage, a trend I dearly hope persists.
Leveraging their speed and numerical superiority, Essendon should aim to carry the ball forward aggressively, testing Adelaide's defensive resolve and work ethic.
Ben Keays has transitioned from being part of that Adelaide midfield rotation to playing as a high half forward in recent seasons.
In this role, his job is to push up the ground to assist at stoppages and become a link in possession chains forward, following this work, he then uses is speed and fitness to sprint back to goal and outpace his opponent.
His involvement at stoppages inside the 50 metre zone often creates running lanes for the team's dangerous medium to small forwards, including Rachele and Rankine.
While Keays' matchup might not initially appear to be a major concern, it has the potential to be significant in this game.
Essendon lacks an ideal defender capable of containing him, especially given the simultaneous threat posed by Rankine and Rachele in the same zone.
Redman had struggled to find his form until his last game. Now, he has the chance to build on last week's performance by rising to the challenge of defending against a player like Keays.
Earlier, I mentioned my inclination to offer some leniency to Adelaide for their start in 2024, well it’s because of the calibre of opposition they’ve faced thus far.
Among the five opponents the Crows have encountered this season, four boast a well established defensive setup and structure, while the fifth has been a work in progress during the offseason.
Carlton, Melbourne, Geelong, and Fremantle prioritize defensive strength, consistently backing it up with a robust system.
Can Essendon be classified in the same defensive category? For now, I'll place them in the work-in-progress category at best, akin to Adelaide's initial opponent, Gold Coast.
Essendon's defensive strategy revolves around committing numbers to contests in order to restrict the opponent's escape routes or cleanliness when exiting.
Five games into the season, the Bombers defensive performance has shown moments of positivity but more negative moments.
However, when compared to Adelaide's previous opponents in terms of defending against ball movement Essendon's performance falls short.
Only Gold Coast has a higher percentage of their own inside 50s rebounded, fewer intercept possessions, and intercept marks than Essendon. Moreover, all of Adelaide's opponents have displayed a lower percentage of opponents converting possession chains into inside 50s and shots on goal.
To emulate the success of Adelaide's opponents, the Bombers must make improvements in these areas.
Adelaide's defensive lineup comprises honest defenders who tend to position themselves back shoulder on their matchups rather than opting for an aggressive setup such as playing in front or zoning. There's no standout area for intercepting on the ground or, more importantly, in the air and then turning that into a reward on the scoresheet.
Keane ranks as their top interceptor, averaging three intercept marks per game, which ranks 17th in the competition. Michalanney follows with 1.6 per game.
With Essendon boasting a variety of heights and smart ball use, they could potentially gain the upper hand in aerial contests, either marking the ball or bringing it to ground for players like Gresham to capitalize on winning ground balls and converting opportunities into scores.
Following Milera's injury in round three, Adelaide's rebound efforts have relied heavily on Keane and his key defensive partner, Worrell. However, neither are typically the attacking types to challenge the defensive structure ahead.
Rebounding is one aspect, with the next being to generate run and overlap.
In Milera's absence, this responsibility has fallen heavily on Smith and Hinge. These two rank second and third in metres gained at Adelaide behind Dawson, the majority of those gains starting in the back third.
Essendon has an opportunity to apply frontal pressure on Hinge and Smith to disrupt their vision and prevent them from hitting teammates with precise kicks.
Navigating early season travel can present its challenges, with some viewing it as a daunting task.
Although away games aren't easier than playing at home, they offer a unique opportunity for team bonding and cohesion, especially for a group that is still in the process of gelling together.
By embarking on this journey as a unit, the team can build a sense of fortitude and unity, laying the groundwork for long-term success. As the season progresses, it's hoped that the benefits of this shared experience will become increasingly apparent, displayed with improved performances and a tighter knit team dynamic on and off the field.
Go Dons !
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