Rewrite history.
It was precisely at this point last season that everything unraveled for Essendon, managing only two wins in the final seven games from here. This disappointing conclusion marred a season that had previously shown significant improvement. This year, many games have highlighted changes in performance and mental focus, and this week is another such opportunity.
It's been 33 games since Essendon last faced Melbourne, and during that time, both teams have significantly changed in their on-field strategies.
Time for change.
I've written, and we've all seen, the changes Essendon has made in contesting, winning the ball back and moving it forward. Melbourne too, has made substantial adjustments, some in order to try and enhance front-half efficiency and others necessitated by personnel changes.
The Demons' midfield has faced challenges this year, with Brayshaw's forced retirement, Grundy's trade, and a preseason that has affected Oliver's ability to perform as he had in previous years.
With Petracca out injured, having attended over 55% of centre bounces and contributed to more than 35% of Melbourne's scores up to the time of his injury, the onus now falls on Viney and Oliver.
They are supported by the ruck combination of Gawn, obviously missing this week, Van Rooyen, and Petty, alongside a mix of players who had spent most of their previous seasons as half back and half forward flankers.
Forced changes.
Pickett, Salem, Sparrow, Neal Bullen and Rivers have all needed to provide extra minutes on ball but the flow on effect with the mixture has not only hurt cohesion inside, it’s taken away the strength of a game that served the Demons in previous successful seasons.
While Melbourne has had to ask flankers to spend more time on ball, Essendon has had to ask midfielders to spend more time as flankers, with Caldwell, Durham, and Perkins spending between 41 and 56% as starting midfielders. Meanwhile, Merrett attends more than 80% of Essendon’s centre bounces, compared to Oliver and Viney, who represent 72 and 68% respectively.
This flexibility could be advantageous for Essendon, especially with Stringer, and after his return from injury in Shiel added in the mix.
In search of territory.
This year, Melbourne ranks 15th for clearance differential, a significant drop from their top-seven rankings in the previous three seasons. This decline affects various aspects, starting with territory loss, then ball movement, and finally in being able to defend turnovers.
Melbourne's territory loss begins at centre clearance, where they ranked 6th last year but now stand at 17th. Of their 112.8 possession chains, over 36% start as rebounds from the back third due to an average of 52.8, the 6th most, inside 50 entries by opponents—a trend Essendon aims to continue this week.
After 16 games, Melbourne ranks 15th for inside 50 differential, while Essendon is 4th. Once the ball enters Melbourne's defensive third, their defenders as usual have been up to the task. Only 44% of those entries are turning into shots, which has them the best this year.
An outstanding feat considering how much is coming their way.
This is where we'd like to see continued improvement for Essendon. This season, they have averaged a shot just over 45% of the time they go inside the front third, ranking 14th of all teams. However, a key factor in last week's victory was their ability to generate a shot 58% of the time they entered that same area.
Defend territory.
So, if Melbourne is losing clearances and is forced to start possession chains far from its goal, ball movement becomes extremely important, and defending that becomes more important for Essendon.
There are a few ways to move the ball up the ground.
Teams can go fast by kicking long and direct like Geelong, West Coast, or Port Adelaide; attack with speed by linking up and running to create overlap like Collingwood or GWS; or move the ball slowly using an uncontested kick-mark game like Brisbane, Fremantle, and Essendon.
This season, Melbourne has been caught between all three methods, resulting in a very unpredictable approach and something that may be of benefit to them this week.
In the last five games, Melbourne has only been able to take 69.2 uncontested marks outside of their forward 50 to aid ball movement, ranked 11th, meaning their current preferred option going forward is via handball to link up and run.
But is this the correct method as the defensive line doesn’t have the natural leg speed to generate enough of this? This is where Essendon needs to get to work and, in turn, exploit this.
The front-half game has been Essendon’s most consistent aspect this year, but this week, it would be ideal to see an improvement in this area. If they can continue to apply pressure and tackle effectively to keep the ball in the area or win it back, they will increase their opportunities for more rewards on the scoreboard.
The Bombers are averaging 39.1 points from chains beginning in the front half, just under the AFL average. Meanwhile, Melbourne is conceding the same figure from its back half. Winning the territory battle from clearances, stopping ball movement with tackling and intercepts, and converting those intercepts into scores will be crucial.
Step up.
Over 61% of Melbourne’s opposition scores come from their inability to defend turnovers, with the last five games conceding over 53.4 points per game, ranking them 15th. During this same period, Essendon has averaged 45.6 points, placing them in the bottom half of the table from this crucial scoring source.
Depending on where the ball is intercepted, Essendon will need to employ different strategies to punish the Demons. When intercepting closer to goal, they should look to move the ball quickly while lowering their vision to find teammates who have found space in the chaos—Stringer, Gresham, and Guelfi are among the best in the competition at this.
When intercepting further from goal, they should build up the play using teammates rather than "bombing" forward to shallow inside 50 entries, which would make it easier for Melbourne to defend and rebound, or worse, force Essendon to scramble to defend a turnover going in the opposite direction.
Step up again.
The Bombers cannot continue to give up 60 points from turnovers going the other way. Over the last five games, this figure was the second highest, only ahead of Richmond. No finalist in the last two years has given up more than 48.6 points this way. Only Essendon, as finalists in 2021, struggled to defend less than 49 points against. Multiple concerns are causing this, as I wrote earlier: shallow forward entries, players being forced to defend "on an island" all on their own due to how the ball is coming out from those shallow entries, and individuals not performing to their previous standards.
Predictably unpredictable.
As has been the case in recent years, it’s been the medium to small players who hit the scoreboard most frequently for Melbourne. Fritsch is the leading goal kicker, and Pickett is second, with both averaging 3.6 shots at goal per game.
The tall targets, Petty and Van Rooyen, only average 1.2 and 1.9 marks inside 50, respectively. Most importantly, Essendon has matchups for these players. Laverde and McKay would be the first choices for the talls, allowing Ridley to concentrate on providing support in the air and, most importantly, intercept marking.
How the rest will line up is particularly intriguing. Fritsch and Pickett receive support from Melksham, who returned from injury last week and made an immediate impact, especially close to goal. There are various options for matchups, but decisions may need to be flexible depending on who is playing the deepest forward and who is moving up the ground. Martin, Redman, and potentially Heppell, if he returns, are better suited to play further up, while Kelly and McGrath are versatile enough to play both high and deep.
Get back.
If there’s an area of concern down back, it’s Essendon’s recent record of being caught one-on-one in the back 50 and consistently losing those contests.
Since round 12, they average 11.8 one-on-one contests, the 5th most in the competition, and are losing over 31% of them, the second worst in a very important period of the season.
While individuals need to step up another few notches in performance, defending the Demons' ball movement and speed, as I wrote earlier, will certainly help.
Evolution.
One of Melbourne’s clear strengths over the previous three seasons has been the ability of their half-forwards to work up the ground and support their midfield teammates in applying pressure, clogging up the opponents' ball movement and effectiveness from clearance, helping win the ball back between the arcs, and, just as importantly, becoming links in chains going forward.
This strength has been driven by Neal Bullen with assistance from Pickett, who both have the tank for work rate and speed to punish.
However, with the loss of depth and form through midfield rotations, the two are now being asked to play larger roles around the ball more often, with extra minutes for Sparrow and Rivers, who would traditionally spend more time down back.
Up for it.
On multiple occasions this year, Neale Bullen has been assigned a run with role, and it's likely that Coach Goodwin will focus on Merrett following his record-breaking game last week.
With Neale Bullen expected to play a significant part in this "ball and chain" role, younger and less experienced players will need to step up as a group rather than being gradually introduced for development.
Although this might seem advantageous for Essendon, it's important to respect these youngsters. Tholstrup, Turner, and winger Windsor combined for four goals last weekend. Alongside Chandler, the group totaled 60 disposals, with over 55% occurring in the front half. Their speed to get up and down the ground a key element.
When the opportunity arises, it will be good to see Redman, McGrath, Martin, Duursma, and others test these youngsters' defensive skills as much as their offensive capabilities.
Breaking through.
Melbourne’s strength lies in its defensive setup behind the ball, and the aerial assets to win the ball back are some of the best in the league.
May, Lever, and McDonald all rank in the top 35 for intercept marking.
Moving forward, decision-making and skills will be crucial for Essendon, and once again the M.C.G plays a part as well. Just like last week,
they should utilise the size of the ground to shift the ball off the line and force Melbourne to defend far and wide.
Switching and changing direction to move May and Lever and create separation between their key backs is essential, but it needs to be done quickly and decisively rather than just going sideways for no metres gained.
They should aim to hit short lead-up targets, as we all witnessed last Friday, and draw the Melbourne numbers to players, rather than allowing them to clog up spaces in the front half.
Essendon has enough tall targets to keep the Melbourne defenders accountable in the air, so at worst, they can bring the ball to ground and allow the inside 50 ground ball opportunity to be won.
The signs.
Watch to see if Essendon can find marks to aid its ball movement forward and whether Melbourne can disrupt this. The Bombers preference has been this approach, and it mirrors two teams who had recent success against the Demons in Brisbane and Fremantle.
In their round 16 clash against the Lions, they successfully denied this marking strategy for three quarters, keeping them below their usual rate and this played a part in being able to lead by 15 points at three-quarter time. However, in the final quarter, Brisbane took control with 37 marks to control the final quarter and get over the line.
Three games prior, Fremantle took 142 marks in their decisive victory over the Demons, demonstrating the effectiveness of this strategy when executed well.
Get it done.
This marks the third consecutive game at the home of finals football, making it crucial for the team to demonstrate the lessons learned from previous games, both offensively and defensively. This week's opponent has the experience to utilise the ground effectively, aiming to neutralise a team’s strengths and exploit their weaknesses.
After a slow start last week, it was encouraging to see the ability to change modes during the game, wrestle back ascendancy, and then control large portions of the match. Consistency in performance is now required as the team enters an important phase of the season. While Essendon is still in the early stages of its journey to full functionality, now is the time to step up and show progress to reap the rewards of their efforts so far.
Go Dons!
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