“I found out long ago
(Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh)
It's a long way down the Holiday Road
(Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh)
Holiday Road
Holiday Road
Jack be nimble, Jack be quick
(Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh)
Take a ride on a West Coast kick
(Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh)
Holiday Road
Holiday Road
Holiday Road
Holiday Road”
Out of the 20 players who played in six or more games this season for Essendon, seven had played no more than 15 games for the club in 2023. Six of those players had appeared in no more than six games last year. Essentially, over 30% of the lineup has required time to gel with each other on a weekly basis.
With Essendon embarking on their fourth interstate trip in eight weeks, this presents an opportunity for increased team bonding, camaraderie, and shared learning experiences as the team spends more time together.
This will allow for further opportunities for team building, adaptability, and growth, all of which are beneficial for growing chemistry and cohesion amongst the group.
"We're from America! We don't stop for history!"
-Rusty Griswold
Round 21 of last year's match against the West Coast Eagles starkly revealed Essendon's downward spiral, foreshadowing a bleak end to the season of 2023.
Despite Essendon's advantage in clearances (+9) and contests (+39), the Eagles, hungry for victory with only two wins under their belt, saw the match as an opportunity to throw caution to the wind and unleash their full offensive capabilities.
As the game progressed, Essendon struggled to cope with the onslaught, particularly as the Eagles ramped up their intensity in the second half and notably during the final quarter.
“Well I'll tell you something. This is no longer a vacation. It's a quest. It's a quest for fun."
-Clark Griswold
Don't base your assessment of the West Coast Eagles solely on their previous seasons when predicting how Essendon will fare in this game. The Eagles' team composition and game strategy have evolved.
In their last four games, they’ve won seven of 16 quarters, marking a significant improvement compared to their previous seasons' win rate, scoring over 55 goals in those games. With an average of 26 shots on goal a game during that period, which would have them ranked equal 7th in the competition right now.
In their two victories this year, they've surpassed 100 points on both occasions, and in their two losses over the last four weeks, they've scored 75 points or more.
Now, they approach the game with a sense of freedom and confidence in their abilities, unencumbered by the pressure and injuries that hindered them before.
They aim to inflict damage on the opposition, particularly around the ball, and look to take the game on when in possession, fueled by the confidence instilled by the number one draft pick
“This is crazy, this is crazy, this is crazy”
-Clark Griswold
If someone had told me at the beginning of the year that the West Coast Eagles and Essendon would be ranked second and third in contested possession differential at the start of round seven, I would've had them committed.
Despite the Eagles suffering a significant setback in this aspect against the Suns on Sunday, with a loss of 37 clearly playing a pivotal role in the overall performance, their impressive +24 win in contested possessions against Fremantle and +38 against Richmond paved the way for their previous two victories.
Yeo led the charge with 30 contested possessions in those two games, supported by Reid with 25, Kelly with 19, and Ginbey with 17.
For Essendon, it marks a remarkable turnaround.
They ended 2023 with a differential of -2.8 per game, ranking 15th overall. Currently, they boast a +5.4 differential, placing them 4th in the league.
A change in game plan, stemming from a shift in philosophy, has been a major contributing factor for the Bombers.
They now prefer to deploy more players to the contest and trust those ahead of the field to win or at least halve the contests, a significant departure from previous seasons where they focused on defending behind the play and slowly advancing the ball forward.
Although the uncontested aspect of the game remains a part of Essendon's strategy week to week, their emphasis now lies more on moving the ball forward rather than lateral movement.
In this week's matchup, Essendon holds a +51 differential compared to the Eagles in uncontested possessions.
Outside of the forward 50, the Bombers average 71.6 uncontested marks, while West Coast averages 61, with Essendon ranking mid-table in this metric, whereas the Eagles are 16th.
Watch for the Bombers to look for marks and move the ball via short passes to players in space, and see if the Eagles prefer to control this by matching up man on man like Port Adelaide did after quarter time in round 4.
Conversely, if the Eagles gain possession, expect them to prioritize running and kicking long to targets.
The West Coast Eagles are the most contested team in the competition, with over 41% of their game played in tight situations, while Essendon ranks 13th in this regard.
When in possession, the Eagles prioritize moving the ball forward with speed and gaining territory at all costs, ranking in the top four for metres gained per disposal in 2024, whereas Essendon sits at the bottom of this ranking.
While clearance and contest are basic fundamentals of football, if Essendon can dominate in this aspect, it will challenge West Coast's ability to tackle and regain possession.
The Eagles rank just below average for intercept differential and 18th for tackles per game this year. If the Bombers can break free from congestion, there's an opportunity to exploit them on the outside with fluid ball movement and convert those opportunities into scoring chances.
“Getting there is half the fun”
-Clark Griswold
In six out of seven games this season, Essendon has opted for two dedicated ruckmen, and it will be intriguing to see if they continue this strategy on their long flight to Perth this week.
Both Draper and Goldstein possess a size and height advantage over the West Coast rucks, Williams and Williams (no relation).
Bailey Williams serves as the primary ruck for the Eagles, participating in over 68% of their contests, while Essendon's Draper and Goldstein split their attendance more evenly, hovering closer to a 50/50 split.
The Eagles midfielders are aware that Bailey Williams is likely to be outmatched in the hit-out and often rely on roving the tap from the opposing ruck instead.
Yeo currently ranks 5th in stoppage clearances in the league, with Kelly and Reid also making appearances in the top 50 with Bailey Williams, whose mobility aids in this role.
As both teams heavily rely on scoring from stoppages, this area will undoubtedly be a focal point of the battle and a significant factor in determining the outcome of the match.
In terms of points scored from stoppages, Essendon ranks 7th, while the Eagles closely follow in 8th place.
In terms of stoppage differential per game, Essendon holds a +17 advantage over the Eagles.
While Yeo shines in stoppage clearances, Essendon only has an injured Setterfield within the top 50. They prefer to distribute the workload among Merrett, Parish, Gresham, Caldwell, Durham, Perkins, and Draper, all of whom rank within the top 75, indicating a deeper list of options compared to West Coast, where Ginbey is their only other representative within the top 100.
You can add Petruccelle to their centre bounce rotation, while Essendon has Stringer, who attend 21 centre bounces against Collingwood last week, highlighting the advantage the Bombers should enjoy in this area.
“I think we’re lost. I told you we should have stopped and asked for directions.”
-Ellen Griswold
Essendon has struggled in recent seasons with allowing scores from opposition kick-ins, although they showed improvement this season until last week when they conceded three goals from unbroken chains directly from kickouts. Collingwood, under McRae, has excelled in this area, exploiting Essendon's ongoing efforts to rectify this weakness.
The West Coast Eagles rank second for scores from kickouts, averaging more than a goal per game, trailing only Port Adelaide in this aspect.
Essendon must remain vigilant during the game, as the Eagles exhibit boldness and freedom in their playing style, unburdened by past defeats.
They are prone to taking risks and becoming dangerous once they seize momentum, as evidenced by their previous encounter with the Bombers.
Essendon needs to improve their defending of turnovers leading to scores, using this as an opportunity to address this issue once more.
Their 16th ranking in differential over the year, just one spot above the Eagles, highlights the significance of this challenge in 2024.
Conceding an average of 58 points per week places considerable pressure on Essendon to maintain their own scoring momentum, especially as they are averaging 82.8 points per game this season, only four goals more than they are conceding via turnovers.
Now, this isn’t a strength of West Coast so far in 2024, averaging just over 30 points a game from this source. Essendon should make this a target and aim to keep the Eagles below their season average.
“Look kids, Big Ben”
-Clark Griswold
I've discussed the midfield battle, but there are crucial matchups all over the ground.
Up forward, we have Wright, averaging two goals per game, Langford, ranked 2nd in the competition for marks on the lead inside 50 with 2.3 and Stringer, averaging 4.3 shots at goal.
They'll be up against McGovern, 15th for intercept possessions and averaging 2.6 intercept marks a game, and Barrass, averaging 2.5 intercept marks.
On the wing, we have Duursma, having his highest-rated season on Player Ratings since his first season and averaging his highest ever intercept possessions and rebound 50s, going head to head against Hunt, currently ranked the 4th best wingman by Champion Data for his scoring impact.
Then down back, McKay, averaging 3.1 intercept marks a game and 8.3 intercept possessions, 9th in the competition, likely to stand Waterman, with 21 goals to date and third in the Coleman Medal, number five for marks inside 50.
If they can get the matchups right and in Essendon’s favor, there's an opportunity to continue with the great recent form, with only two interstate trips left out of 15 matches to come.
Go Dons !
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