“What have you learnt?”
In 2023, the opposition gained more insights about Essendon than Essendon did about their rivals in the return games of that season.
Despite strong performances in the initial meetings against GWS, Collingwood, Geelong, and West Coast, Essendon couldn't replicate their success in the second matchups. Now in 2024, the Bombers have a chance to turn things around by learning from the Anzac Day game and applying those lessons against Collingwood this week.
“Refresh”
I’ll quickly revisit and cover some of the main points to the round seven Anzac Day clash.
Essendon jumped out of the blocks first by scoring four goals in the first seven minutes while Collingwood in that same time could only manage three disposals. This set the tone for the first quarter as the Pies only had 37 kicks, 12 marks, six of them uncontested in the first 20 minutes of play. It’s important in every game to get onto the front foot from the first bounce, and against Collingwood especially, as it’s their highest scoring quarter of the four.
This season, the second 20 minutes have been Essendon’s worst, only winning six of 15 with a percentage in that time of just over 88%, something the team can look to improve as it’s the first break in the game when the opposition can reassess and adjust, and this is exactly what Collingwood did last time.
In the second quarter, the Pies made adjustments and immediately saw the benefits. They kicked five consecutive goals off the back of pressure through 10 forward half intercepts and +13 tackles around the ground.
After losing control of the game post-quarter time, Essendon managed to wrestle back momentum at multiple points in the next two quarters. The second half seesawed for control between both teams, with most of the game played between the arcs. The Bombers clearly won the clearance battle by 17, with +11 from centre clearance being a major reason, leading to six shots directly from this source compared to Collingwood's two, and 13 shots to four overall from winning the ball at stoppage. But can that continue this week?
“The recent form”
In the last five games, centre clearance differential is almost the same for both teams, with Essendon ranked 10th, while Collingwood is only one spot ahead, but it’s stoppage clearances around the ground that the Bombers must improve on, with a the differential of +3.8 in Collingwood’s favour.
While the stoppage game was in Essendon’s control last time they met, Collingwood capitalised more on intercepts, with their 73 intercepts turning into 18 shots at goal, a strike rate of over 24%, while Essendon’s was just above 19%.
A large reason behind this was in Essendon’s hands when going inside the front third. The Bombers went within 25 metres of the goal just over 56% of the time they entered the forward 50, while Collingwood achieved this over 71% of the time. Deeper entries create more pressure at ground level in tighter spaces and force the opposition to start their possession chains further from their goal if or when they have the opportunity. As a result, the Pies scored 47 points from the back half, well up from their season average of 34.2, which is ranked 9th this season. In the last five games, Essendon’s defending scores from this zone has fluctuated, currently giving up 38.8 points a game and in the bottom six for the moment.
One easy fix is to avoid giving up scores from kickouts, as Collingwood went coast-to-coast on three occasions for three goals last time.
“The change”
Up to Round seven, Essendon was only averaging 43.1 points from intercepts, well below AFL average, but, we’ve seen a slight increase since, now they’re averaging 50.2 and just above the league average. This is a much more reliable score source long term, and it’s going to play a big part in this game. The Bombers are currently -2.2 for differential in turnovers over the previous five games. Now they need to turn that differential into rewards on the scoreboard.
Last year, over 42% of Collingwood's scores began from the defensive half of the ground. Their 39.7 points a game was number one at that time, showing their strength in transition once the defenders won the ball back. This season, though, is different. The Pies are ranked 18th for the percentage of scores sourced from the back half and are clearly number one for scores from the front half. Almost 50 points a game come from clearance or intercept won centre forward, which is over 55% of their weekly score. Stoppage work needs to be switched on down back, and rebounds need to be careful and controlled. Cool heads to control the tempo in the back half when Essendon has the ball are important. The Bombers continue to exit wide, and this is important once again. Ridley, Redman and Heppell need to have the ball in hand to find an easy outlet mark to help set up the field ahead as well as behind.
“The air versus the ground battle”
While Essendon may have better assets in the air against the Collingwood forwards with McKay and Ridley as intercept markers, Collingwood will look to control ground level. The Pies have five players in the top 50 for forward 50 ground ball, with Hill and Lipinski in that bracket. Both are in the top 40 for shots at goal from general play, with Nick Daicos also in the top 25. Currently, Hill and Schultz lead the goal kicking for the Pies. Matchups on these smalls important. Hill and Schultz are more regularly inside their front third, while Lipinski works further up the ground, helping to pressure the contest, man up on the opposition’s half forward, and become a key link in attacking possession chains. His matchup will have numerous decisions to make quickly. Will he follow him up the ground, and if so, how far? If not, it’s important he doesn’t sit too deep and can still position himself to impact when Collingwood is coming forward.
The first move of Martin from half-back to half-forward was in the Anzac Day clash and was certainly fruitful that day. At the moment, this deployment seems to be kept up the coaches' sleeve as a weapon to be called upon in different game situations. While my preference is still to see him begin in the midfield and rotate to half-forward, my second preference would be starting him in the front half. In his three quarters playing as a forward in total against Collingwood and Carlton, Martin has had 20 disposals, 17 uncontested, demonstrating his forward craft and ability to become a dangerous option by knowing where to position himself. He had six score involvements, including five shots at goal and two marks inside the forward 50 in those 60 minutes of play. If he’s going to challenge the opposition, it’s more likely in the front half than the back half.
Essendon must tag Nick Daicos, and they have the player who can limit his impact in Caldwell.
Daicos is the only Collingwood player in the top 50 for average clearances per game, with Pendlebury being the only other player in the top 20 for centre clearances. Additionally, only Nick Daicos's brother ranks in the top 60 players for disposals from Collingwood.
Let's be honest, he's essentially "untaggable” but any way to diminish his shine could make a significant impact in helping secure the four points here.
“Under pressure”
Pressure at the source has been a strength for Collingwood since McRae arrived, and Essendon earlier this season moved to a similar model.
The Pies' opponents this year are averaging the most handballs a game due to the pressure from tackles inside contests. After 15 games, Collingwood averages over 67 tackles a game, ranked number one. Essendon has been improving in this area all season. How they handle the pressure, and effectively return it, is key.
Both teams aim to exit out the front of stoppages, particularly Collingwood. Watch to see if Essendon can first halt this with balanced pressure inside and outside the contest, and also how the Bombers manage the Pies' pressure. Collingwood will try to force Essendon into handballing backwards, which will invite more pressure by closing the space and limiting their vision ahead.
“Structure”
How Essendon structures its selection and setup is always intriguing, especially this week in the forward half.
Collingwood’s Frampton and Moore are key defenders, with Moore being more proactive in the air and likely to intercept marks. In contrast, Frampton focuses on playing the percentages and bringing the ball to ground. This approach benefits Collingwood’s rebounding defenders like Maynard, Markov, Quaynor, and Sidebottom, who will challenge Essendon’s forwards for speed and mobility.
In Round Seven, Essendon only registered two tackles inside the forward 50.
As I wrote earlier, shallow entries and Collingwood’s intercepting were significant factors, along with Essendon’s team selection. Guelfi, who was absent in the last matchup, is expected to play a defensive role against one of Collingwood’s rebounding defenders this week. Additionally, Essendon will hope Gresham recaptures his early season form to assist at ground level. Preventing the Magpies from rebounding unpressured is crucial against a team that thrives on run and dare.
Essendon has an opportunity to score against Collingwood, as the Magpies have conceded 100 points in three of their last four games, losing the inside 50 count by a total of 44 during those games. Over the last five games, Essendon is averaging 60 inside 50s per game, the highest in the league. However, they have struggled with converting those opportunities into shots, with only 44% of those entries becoming shots at goal, ranking them 14th in this period.
“Now is the time”
As I have explained, Collingwood will challenge multiple aspects of Essendon’s game.
Playing against teams with well-organised and efficiently functioning systems is exactly the type of test Essendon should seek at this point in the year. By this stage of the season, the time for experimentation is over; the focus should now be on refining strategies and solidifying team dynamics. Facing strong opponents now is crucial for fine-tuning their approach, addressing any weaknesses, and building the momentum needed for a strong finish to the year.
Go Dons !
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