Essendon to date has had to contend against three different types of game styles in three games. The kamikaze Hawks, the slick-moving Swans, and the chokehold of the Saints, this will make it four different in four weeks.
The challenge Port Adelaide presents this early in the season will test a couple of aspects that Essendon has wanted to improve on for 2024. The clearance game, and the front half game. Let's have a quick recap on the Power of 2023.
Compared to the previous season, Port Adelaide's scores rose by almost two goals a game and in the end, was the reason for the extra seven wins they had, because it certainly wasn't the defense that got the points.
Bottom four in both opposition scoring shots per inside 50 and goals per inside 50 tells a lot. Over 14 one-on-one contests in the defensive half were the 5th worst last year, and then they would end up losing 31.7% of them, which had them ranked 18th.
Obviously this was a target to improve on with personnel over the off-season rather than in the system, because outside of that weakness, the system worked.
It all started at centre bounce, number two for centre clearances and number three for inside 50s. Once inside the area, it made it extremely difficult to get it out. Over 18 front-half one-on-ones a game was number one, and they ranked second best behind Brisbane for shots at goal per inside 50.
Like Brisbane, Port Adelaide, didn't mess around with the ball with a kick percentage of 61.5%, those kicks taking the most ground of all last year.
In 2023 the Bombers played the Power on two occasions, round eight and round 16, the first away at Adelaide Oval during a tough period of the fixture as Essendon had just come off a loss to reigning premiers Geelong after a five-day break from Anzac Day against Collingwood.
In round eight the record will show Essendon lost by five points with an opportunity to draw the game with less than a minute to go. But realistically on these metrics, this is a game Port Adelaide would normally win by eight goals plus.
They dominated clearance and contest to start with.
Plus 17 in both stoppage clearances as well as contested possession gave them the territory and the advantage of +18 for inside 50s, +12 shots at goal and +6 marks inside that front third.
Their pressure was elite when Essendon tried to get it out. Plus 7 tackles inside 50 and +12 intercept marks made for hard work down back. We all know the unfortunate end to the return match-up at the M.C.G but now compare the difference.
This time the Power had -4 at stoppage clearances and -19 at contested possession, for only +5 inside 50s, but -2 shots at goal and -3 for marks in that area. They fought hard inside the front third with +5 tackles but now Essendon was able to move the ball as Port Adelaide lost intercepts by three.
Two tight losses on the scoresheet, but two different processes involved, the second a more long-term sustainable version, a version that Essendon has improved on from last year to this year so far.
In the first three games of the season, the Bombers' clearance game has improved significantly, it's really the main source of scoring for 2024. Yes, the centre bounce work has been very effective, but with so many variables involved such as the umpires bounce height and direction, the four versus four is really a coin flip battle, a battle so far Essendon is on the winning side of.
But it's the clearance work around the ground that's really shown change.
At the moment there's a plus differential of 8 compared to the previous three years of -1.3, -0.8, -0.8 here you can start to see a sustainable version ahead.
If they could just fix up the contest work post those clearances then that would elevate them even further, and this week they're going to have to make a step.
Port Adelaide's first two opponents weren't really going to trouble them in a meaningful way.
The West Coast Eagles and Richmond didn't have the weapons to win hard ball, gain back territory, stop scoring opportunities or apply enough scoreboard pressure to change the feel of the game.
Last weekend, they faced Melbourne, a team adept at defending and enduring the barrage they faced. It was indeed a bombardment, with 66 inside 50s and 14 marks in that zone, propelled by a +15 clearance advantage. Despite Melbourne scrambling, they persevered.
When it counted most in the last quarter, they rallied.
Despite trailing by 11 in contested possessions for the first three quarters, they outplayed the Power in the final quarter, winning the stat by nine. This allowed them to have seven shots at goal, scoring five goals two.
The three previous opponents Essendon has had were able to move the ball too well from the back half against the defensive setup and system, the Power really excel here, but they do it slightly different to the three other teams.
Their back-half lineup isn't blessed with brilliant leg speed, instead, gifted by foot skills to hit teammates.
Their half-back line consists of precision passing from Burton, Farrell, and Houston, with all three averaging over 14 kicks a game, with Burton and Farrell going at over 76% in kicks to handballs. Their skills shown off by having a kick effectiveness upwards of 75%.
Port Adelaide has added aerial assets to their list this year to improve intercepting in the air down back, but they rely on Burton, Farrell, and Houston to then move it from there.
All three are one two and three for rebound 50s and metres gained from those rebounds.
The three are not shy in looking to find teammates in the corridor to open up the ground for attack, this is a big job for Essendon to stop, nullify or at least dent their effectiveness.
The half-forward role in the Bombers' lineup has been needing improvement for some time now, with issues partly from personnel and partly from setup. This game presents another opportunity for players like Menzie, Hobbs, Caldwell, Gresham, Perkins, and Stringer to maintain the momentum they built against the Saints in applying pressure and continuing to close the space around the damaging back flankers. This pressure will hopefully force them to kick hastily and seek safer options out wide rather than through the dangerous corridor.
The performances of those Essendon players last weekend should have instilled confidence in them to once again support their teammates ahead of the field in an area they have already worked so hard on: clearances.
There are a lot of pieces of the puzzle to winning this game but none bigger than the midfield battle.
Coach Ken Hinkley sets up a midfield balanced by in and under contest warriors, alongside high-speed run and excellent decision making, all those together with a defensively minded "stopper."
Willem Drew is the lockdown leader of the midfield mix, his role on the opposition number one midfielder allows Butters and Rozee to get to work on the outside using their pace alongside their decision making and skills.
But don't just think those two do all their damage outside of the contest, that's the added benefit they have to also work inside to win their own ball, and then take it outside using their brilliant abilities.
Wines is the bull of the group, with Horne Francis the calf on a quick trajectory to becoming the head bull.
Wines' absence this week is a significant setback to Port Adelaide's initial ball-winning setup. Thus far, he holds the top spot for centre clearances per centre bounce attended.
His contested possession rate stands at 51.4%, and with a low kick percentage of 41.9%, he tends to distribute the ball by hand, often feeding Butters and Rozee.
Horne Francis is expected to return from injury to fill the void left by Wines.
His inside work differs slightly from Wines, as he leans more towards kicking than handballing. However, having missed the previous two matches due to a hamstring injury, Essendon should aim to test his fitness and durability at every opportunity. If he's on modified minutes during his comeback, Port Adelaide will have to introduce another player into their rotation.
Butters evenly splits his disposals between kicks and handballs, while Rozee favors his kicking skills. Essendon's improvement in clearance and contests around the ball for 2024 will face a challenge.
Drew is likely to be tasked with running with Merrett following the Captain's outstanding start to the year.
If the Captain has to sacrifice his game, Parish will require support from Caldwell, Perkins, Setterfield, and Hobbs to adopt a collective approach both inside against Horne Francis and outside against Butters and Rozee.
Essendon must swiftly transition from hunting the ball initially to focusing on containing Butters and Rozee, who excel in run, carry, and overlap.
Applying pressure on these two, and if Horne Francis does win possession inside, forcing him to kick it under pressure forward, rather than allowing the precision skills of Butters and Rozee to come into play, can be crucial.
If Essendon can consistently win this battle, it will force Port Adelaide's midfield to spend energy in defending, an area that they have had vulnerabilities in.
The midfield battle for clearances will significantly impact two areas Essendon aims to enhance this year, areas where Port Adelaide excelled last year: the front half game and time in forward half. These indicators are crucial for maintaining pressure by keeping the ball in the attacking zone.
In 2023, Port Adelaide and Melbourne ranked first and second for time in forward half and forward half differential, both being top four in average shots at goal per game and top two in inside 50s. Once the ball enters this zone, moving it becomes challenging.
Against St. Kilda last week, Essendon effectively set up "the wall" in the last quarter and at various moments throughout the game to hinder the Saints' rebound from their defensive half with lengthy possession chains. Comparing the first three quarters to the last quarter of that match proves Essendon's success.
St. Kilda averaged 29.3 possession chains in the first three quarters, remaining virtually the same at 30 in the last quarter. However, the percentage of these chains entering the Saints' forward 50 decreased from 46.5% to 33.3%. Particularly impressive was the improvement in intercepts, with 61.3% intercepted in the first three quarters compared to 76.6% in the last, for reference, the AFL average is 58.7%.
If Essendon can gain initial possession, and get the ball going its way, the press can hopefully continue on from where it finished the previous week.
As mentioned earlier, the Power chased improvements in the trade period to help win the ball back in the air in the defensive third. Ratugolea had been on the whiteboard from the previous year, and Zerk Thatcher would be looked at to help balance what Esava and Aliir can do by locking down on his direct opponent.
This change has proven effective so far, as Port Adelaide has yet to lose a defensive one-on-one battle out of 21 opportunities.
However, there is a caveat to this success: they rank as the fourth easiest team to have a shot against once the ball enters their defensive 50.
Over 52% of the time it penetrates this area, their opponents manage a shot at goal, don't forget who their opponents were before Melbourne. Unfortunately Essendon is the third easiest in this measurement.
Ratugolea and Aliir do take aggressive positioning against their matchup, which forces their opponents' kicks into the area to "bite off" more dangerous passes and their direct matchup to get to dangerous areas. Because of this, Essendon's forwards need to be presenting to their teammates and force Aliir and Esava to be accountable to them.
Precision entries would be preferred, but in the modern era with pressure, sometimes that's not always possible. Look to "hit up" short leads from teammates also, rewarding the work they're putting in, especially early in the game, as this will test the confidence and fortitude in the Power's two key defenders to continue their aggressive approach.
Another requirement the Power fixed was ruck depth. Soldo and Sweet were brought in to be able to free the load mainly on Dixon, but also on an undersized Finlayson.
So far, Dixon hasn't needed to take a centre bounce, with his only ruck contests being within the 50-metre zone, while Finlayson has been the relief ruck to Soldo so far.
Keeping Dixon anchored ahead of the ball means Port Adelaide constantly have a beacon to hit who can stand and deliver, while Marshall is the more traditional lead-up forward.
McKay will obviously be expected to go head to head with Dixon, but Marshall presents a challenge to an undersized Laverde or if Cox plays down back.
If the midfield can start the ball going Essendon's way and force Port Adelaide to move it further from goal, this will help the Bomber defenders get back and support in the air, and also at ground level.
Throughout the season, I'll be closely observing several areas to gauge Essendon's progress towards long-term success. One such area is score sources and the conversion rate from those sources. This involves analyzing the percentage of a team's clearances and intercepts that translate into shots on goal, as well as evaluating the opposition's success rate. Historically, premiers and contenders have nearly doubled their scoring output from turnovers compared to clearances.
As you can see in the above image, there isn’t a huge difference in the percentage of shots via clearance that Port Adelaide is giving up compared to what Essendon is generating from that source, but the Bombers will need to make an improvement on their side to rein in the Power.
It’s the other scoring source that Essendon needs to make a major upgrade in, intercept scores for and against.
Port Adelaide’s opposition is generating a shot from over 20% of their intercepts, so the Bombers are going to have to improve in that area to match and, of course, surpass Port Adelaide. While at the same time, not giving up a quarter of the Power’s intercepts becoming a shot at goal.
Every week Essendon's transition game is under review, for the good that it is doing in the Bombers' ball movement, and the bad because of the opposition's ability to hurt on the scoreboard from it.
It's a constant working process, and Port Adelaide presents the challenge this week.
A lift in both attacking and defensive chains can lessen the force from the Power and give the advantage to the Bombers.
Go Dons !!
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