The second appointment.
The first of the two audits with Ross Lyon this year was approved after the early-season clash in Round Three. Now comes the second appointment for 2024. While both teams have changed their approach since that game, there were many key strategies and moments that can aid Essendon in its second application sent in for approval.
Looking back to March 30, Essendon showed both strengths and areas for improvement that can provide valuable insights for this week's return game.
It was the first sign of a change in defensive mindset, built on the back of growing intensity in tackling and pressuring at the source.
Essendon finished the contested battle +13 ahead and maintaining this level of fight will be crucial this week. The longer the game went on, the more rewards came the Bombers way.
Despite initially losing clearances by six in the first three quarters and relying on post-clearance to get the ball in hand, Essendon dominated in the final quarter, winning all stoppages by seven and forcing St. Kilda to spend more time defending.
Momentum.
A particularly pleasing aspect of last week's game against Adelaide was Essendon's ability to transition from defence to attack and convert those efforts into scoring opportunities. The 11 shots on goal they managed were tied for the third most this season, well above their season average of 7.77 shots per game at that point. All defenders played a role, with Ridley launching three scoring opportunities, two from intercept marks and McGrath contributing two from his five intercept possessions. These opportunities will be crucial again, as St. Kilda ranks as the 7th best team in defending their forward half, and Essendon only generated six shots from this area in their previous matchup.
Rebounding.
Conversely, Essendon must improve its defence in the front half, particularly against rebounds that penetrate too deeply into its own backline. St. Kilda's half-back trio of Wanganeen-Milera, Sinclair, and Bonner are their primary rebounders from defensive 50, all ranking in the top 40 in this metric, with Wanganeen-Milera 14th in the competition. Both Sinclair and Wanganeen-Milera are in the top 75 for initiating scoring chains, rank number one and two for disposals at St. Kilda, and are among the top 20 players in the league. They inflict damage similarly, using their foot skills to hit targets. Wanganeen-Milera often looks for more dangerous targets further upfield, while Sinclair prefers shorter options to set up run-and-carry through handball receives.
Of note, Wanganeen-Milera did spend time at centre bounce and as a midfielder in parts late in the game last week. It was the first time he’s seen midfield minutes this year.
Essendon will need to pressure all three of them effectively, as seen last time when Bonner had 32 disposals but turned over 17 kicks, and Wanganeen Milera’s impact was minimised to 20 disposals.
Be prepared.
Essendon's half-forwards have been disappointing in recent games, both with and without the ball. Here's an opportunity for them not only to make an impact on the scoreboard but also to help defend against St. Kilda's scoring. Before last week's game, Essendon faced five of the top seven ranked teams for moving the ball quickly and directly, prioritising quick territorial gains over lateral movement.
Obviously, outside of Collingwood and West Coast, those teams were successful with that approach. However, that style has not been Adelaide's preference this year, as they are ranked 12th for territory gain per disposal. But last week, they duplicated what had been successful against Essendon, and once again, the Bombers setup was exposed.
St. Kilda is ranked 13th in this metric, so it will be interesting to see if they alter their traditional system. Importantly, Essendon must be prepared for both styles this week.
Contest the uncontested.
Both teams traditionally move the ball forward similarly, with uncontested marks from short kicks the preferred method.
Essendon averages just over 75 uncontested marks in the back and middle thirds of the ground, ranking 4th among all teams, with St. Kilda slightly ahead with just over 76 per game.
In St. Kilda's recent wins against Sydney and West Coast, they were afforded 100 and 95 uncontested marks in those areas of the ground, respectively, with a loss to Adelaide in between where weather played a major role, limiting them to just 42 for the game.
Weather won't be a factor under the roof this time, so Essendon must increase their work rate to prevent easy territorial gains and create their own opportunities when needed.
Only the Sydney Swans average more scores from the defensive half of the ground than St. Kilda, while Essendon ranks 13th in preventing such scores. As mentioned earlier, the forward 50 and front half pressure from Essendon's half-forwards will be crucial here.
Then versus now.
After their first three games against Hawthorn, Sydney, and St. Kilda, Essendon held a +24 differential in clearances and a 27.5% success rate in converting clearance wins into shots on goal. At that time, scores from stoppages were more reliable than those from turnovers, but this might need to change for the second meeting with St. Kilda. Although Essendon managed to score 30 points from stoppages against the Saints, St. Kilda has since become the 4th best team at defending scores from clearances. The big question is whether the Bombers can add a more reliable strategy of converting intercepts into shots on goal.
Enough is enough.
It's tiring to continually discuss Essendon's struggles with defending turnovers, but it's been a persistent challenge all season. They concede an average of over 51 points per game this way, ranking 14th in the league, with no other top-eight team ranking in the bottom seven in this metric. Urgent improvement is needed immediately. Since round 14, St. Kilda is the second-best team at capitalising on turnovers, averaging over 60 points per game from this source, accounting for more than three-quarters of their total score.
Ross Lyon's common coaching trait is to flood the contest with numbers, creating "dirty ball" situations around the area.
If the ball emerges the wrong way, it isn't cleanly moved out with handball link and run. This tactic serves a dual purpose, creating more space in their forward half for one-on-one opportunities. Although they currently rank below average in winning one-on-one contests over a five-week period, they generate the third most such opportunities among all teams. The concern is that Essendon loses one-on-one contests nearly a third of the time, ranking as the third-worst team in this regard, ahead of only West Coast and North Melbourne.
More support.
It’s time to knuckle down for a defensive line that has struggled and been disappointing in the last few weeks. What can also help is teammates getting back to support quicker through a more rigid system behind the ball.
This week, I’m hoping to see a more balanced approach between attack and defense from the Essendon wings. While it’s been pleasing to see them hit the scoreboard by drifting forward, I would like to see them also aiding more in stopping the opposition from scoring.
While Duursma has a natural turn of foot and experience playing the wing position, both Cox and Jones are new to the role and are not blessed with the same natural turn of foot. A better starting position on the defensive side can certainly help, and it will need to this week, as Wood plays the wing role better than most in the competition, not just defensively but also offensively.
Wood is integral to St. Kilda's ball movement forward, averaging over seven marks per game and ranking third on their team, with nearly 90% being uncontested. He works hard to outnumber opponents in the back half and serves as a lead-up outlet option ahead. Whoever lines up against him needs to make quick, decisive decisions about when to support fellow defenders and when to mark him, as he averages nearly two shots at goal per game and scores exactly one goal per game this year.
Ground level.
Although last week was only against West Coast, St. Kilda managed six intercepts inside their forward 50, with 23 tackles in that zone playing a massive role. Their 15 shots at goal from the front half were their most this season, and with confidence high, they'll aim to replicate that performance. While 67 inside 50s certainly helped, Essendon must limit entries and ensure correct matchups, especially against St. Kilda's fleet-footed small forwards.
Higgins leads St. Kilda's goal-kicking with 28 goals, averaging over three shots on goal per game. His 2.5 inside 50 groundball wins per game make him the league's top player in this category. His pressure is complemented by tackling partners Butler and Garcia, with the trio averaging over five tackles per game in that zone. In comparison, Essendon has struggled since the bye, conceding over 48 points on average in their back half and ranking 15th in this metric.
Some of this was due to basic giveaways like turnovers and some from easy outlets through stoppages. After last week’s performance in the second quarter, I’m sure the team will be put through some training regarding setup and decision-making this week.
The white board.
Team selection will once again be intriguing, especially regarding the forward line configuration. Although it might not seem apparent, Essendon ranks 5th for marks inside 50 per inside 50 entry since the bye and has been in the top seven all year. Here's an opportunity to hit this standard once again or even improve on it. Since the bye, Essendon has four forwards—Langford, Stringer, Wright, and Caddy—ranked in the top 40 for marks inside 50 among players with more than one game. Will Wright return to the forward mix this week?
St. Kilda ranks 14th in the competition for denying marks in their back third. If Wright returns, it will force Howard, Battle, Wilkie, and Webster to prioritise marking opponents over intercept marking.
Make it count.
It’s time for Essendon to get the clearance hunt back in its game from earlier this year. From the first eight games, the Bombers only lost a head-to-head clearance battle once against Port Adelaide, but from the next 10 games, they’ve lost it six times.
Since the bye, the Saints haven’t impressed either, ranking just below the AFL average per game, and in this battle, the Bombers have a larger variety of players who can help.
Between the two teams, the Saints have the top two players in clearances around the ground, with ruckman Marshall number one of all players, followed by Steele. Marshall’s tendency to grab it out of the ruck and “bang” it forward helps him to be the 4th ranked ruck for stoppage clearances and number one of all rucks for territory gain. It’s an obvious ploy and something the Essendon rucks, whoever is selected this week, shouldn’t be surprised by. Additionally, players behind the ball need to be switched on and disciplined with referencing an opponent.
Marshall's follow-up work needs to be curtailed, as he plays a crucial role in their uncontested mark chains moving forward. He averages 4.1 uncontested marks per game, ranking third among all ruckmen.
After Marshall and Steele, the next ranked clearance players for both teams are Bombers: Caldwell, Draper, Durham, and Merrett. Adding Shiel to the mix, who has been starting in over 62% of centre bounces since returning to the team, alongside Stringer, presents a potential advantage for Essendon. The Bombers should aim to leverage this edge and convert it into points on the scoreboard. St. Kilda ranks 18th in scoring from clearances this season, averaging only 21.5 points per game, while Essendon is 6th, with an average of 34.4 points per game.
Conclusion.
We can only speculate about the discussions and training sessions that have taken place behind closed doors after the last two games, given the visible frustration of the coaches in press conferences. It's likely the focus has been on structure, execution, decision-making, and, most importantly, communication. It's time for Essendon to realign and capitalise on the drive and motivation that fueled them from the first training session of the season.
Go Dons!
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