This review serves as a companion to my earlier analysis of *The Essendon Forward Line of 2024*
https://thebombersblog.wixsite.com/thebombersblog/post/forward-line where I explored the team’s strategies and execution for 2024.
In this piece, part one of a two part series, the focus shifts to the individuals that form Essendon’s forward line. I'll be examining their strengths, areas that need improvement, and how these factors might influence the team’s overall performance moving forward.
Wright.
Not Wright.
A disappointing season from the 2022 Best and Fairest winner in multiple aspects, including being able to give himself the opportunity to regularly hit the scoreboard, to cement his position in the front half of the ground, insert himself into games when his form needed to improve as a ruck, and consistently earn selection through strong performances in the reserves.
There’s no doubt his confidence has taken a hit over the past two seasons. An early injury in 2023 meant a long rehab focused on restoring one of the key requirements for a forward—taking overhead marks at full extension under pressure.
This year, his suspension in Round 2 seemed to plague his timing in the air.
Hopefully, neither of these issues will linger into 2025, as he has a crucial role to fill, and he’ll likely be given every opportunity to see if he can excel in it.
In Wright’s first year at Essendon in 2021, playing under a game plan that emphasised fast, open transitions forward from the midfield and back half, he averaged 3.5 one-on-one contests per game in the forward half. This improved even more in 2022, with Wright averaging 4.9 one-on-one contests—the 6th most of all players that season.
However, in 2023, under a new regime focused on slower, safer ball movement, his opportunities for one-on-one contests dropped to 2.6 per game. This season, that number decreased further to 2.3 per game.
While not the entire reason, this drop is largely a byproduct of the method used further up the ground, giving him fewer opportunities to test his matchup in the air without the aid of opposition teammates to help intercept mark or bring the ball to ground.
In 2021, Wright won over 31% of those one-on-one aerial battles, with that rate dropping to just over 21% in 2022 and further to 15% in 2023. This season, he rebounded to just under 22%.
Simply put, under the Scott era, Wright’s average of just over 2.4 one-on-one contests per game is too limiting for his abilities. Even with a win rate around 20%, if he were given more chances to go up against his direct matchup—similar to other forwards like Curnow with 4.8 one-on-ones per game, McKay and Walker with 2.9, or Ben King with 2.8 this season—it would allow him to have a greater impact.
Now, I don't place all the blame on the coaches and their method of attack; Wright also bears responsibility for his own performance.
Wright played only 13 games this season, missing four games from round three to round six due to suspension. Upon his return, he managed just six shots at goal in his first three games. His effectiveness was further hindered in rounds eight and nine, where he accumulated over 50% and 55% of his possessions, respectively, in the defensive half as a relief ruckman due to team selection changes.
Round 10 saw him finally produce what he had shown in the past that he was capable of, bullying a first gamer against the winless North Melbourn, with six shots at goal from seven possessions inside 50 and four marks inside that area. Unfortunately, that was the most impact he would have on the scoreboard for the season, as his time in the front third became less and less, some because of his form and some because of his teammates.
Draper returns from injury in round 13, slowly working his way back to full match fitness, and with Goldstein given time off to rest, this forces Wright to spend more time around the ground as a ruckman.
With Essendon's form on a downward trajectory since the bye, the loss to Melbourne in Round 18 forced difficult selection decisions to be made. As a result, Wright was dropped for the Round 19 game against Adelaide. This decision was particularly intriguing, as the VFL side had a bye that week, meaning Wright was given the weekend off. He returned to the senior side the following week against St Kilda, in easily Essendon’s poorest showing for the year, delivering arguably his worst performance of the year, if not his entire Essendon career. This poor showing led to his omission for the subsequent match, and he did not feature in the senior side again in 2024.
Hopefully that’s not Wright.
The concern right now is that Wright’s 2022 scoring output was an outlier. While I’ve noted that he needs more opportunities for one-on-one contests, he also needs to be winning more of them.
As key forwards, Curnow led the way this year, winning over 35% of contests against his key matchup, followed by the King brothers at over 32%, Daniher at 31%, McKay at 29%, and Ugle-Hagan at 26%. Wright’s 21.9% win rate had him ranked 20th among all key position forwards who played five or more games.
With team selection being a big focus for 2025, another concern is his effectiveness as a ruckman, where his ability to impact stoppages and contests in the air is average at best. If he is to serve as a “chop-out” option for the primary ruckman, he needs to elevate his performance.
Winning the hit-out is one aspect, and here Wright ranks as the third-best player in the competition, one of only five players to win over 50% of their ruck contests. However, his connection with the midfield in turning those hit-outs to advantage needs improvement. Among the top 35 in that category, he ranks 29th for converting hit-outs to teammates’ advantage.
Wrighting the wrongs.
Both Wright and the coaches have to acknowledge that, as a combination, the last two seasons haven’t worked. With Stringer departed, there’s an opportunity for more contests in the front third for Wright, and hopefully more space for him to work in.
With my first wish of the tall targets only being Langford and Caddy beside him, and my second wish for faster ball movement when attacking, this should allow Wright every chance to get back to his 2022 form.
His average of 2.7 marks inside 50 a game that year is an achievement he and the coaches should once again look to achieve. That year saw Wright kick 53 goals at an accuracy of just under 63%, the 6th best rate of the top 50 goal kickers for that season. Of those 50, he ranked 2nd for exceeding the expected accuracy the most for set shots at goal. This is a player who needs to be having more shots at goal than most on the team.
Caddy.
Green shoots.
A slow start to his debut season due to injury saw Essendon’s 2023 first draft pick delayed in making his senior debut.
After stringing together seven consecutive games in the VFL, he finally broke through for his first AFL game in Round 11’s Dreamtime clash.
All up Caddy played 10 games of senior football for the year, ranking 4th among all 19-year-old key forwards in games played this season.
His average of 61 minutes time on ground was the 6th highest of any 19-year-old to play two or more games.
Round 22 was the most influential game of his early career, impacting in the air, at ground level, and earning rewards on the scoreboard.
He collected 15 possessions, with seven contested—three of those at ground level, including two inside the forward 50. Impressively, over 46% of his possessions were part of a scoring chain, with one of those chains starting directly from an intercept. It was undoubtedly a sign of what lies ahead for the number 30.
In a forward line that didn’t have enough space to work within for the majority of his games, Caddy was forced to work hard for his possessions. He earned just under 10% of his possessions via a contested mark, ranking 44th in the competition among all players who played six games or more. This is an enormous achievement for a 19-year-old, with only one other 19-year-old, Dear from Hawthorn, appearing on that list.
When he was able to find enough space to work in, Caddy placed significant demands on his matchup to defend him—and to do so fairly.
This season, he averaged just under a free kick per game inside the forward 50, a result of his ability to contest in the air and his determination to mark the ball at its highest point, aided by his leap.
Learning on the job.
At just 19, there’s plenty of room for growth. One area that stands out is goal-kicking accuracy, where his 36% accuracy falls well short of the benchmark measured by Champion Data over the last decade.
Improving his set-shot conversion will be a key focus. Greater exposure to high-pressure scenarios will help him refine this crucial skill, and more opportunities on the big stage in pivotal moments will only aid his development.
Assistance please.
This season, Caddy averaged the fewest one-on-one battles of any Essendon forward, further underscoring the importance of Essendon adopting faster ball movement and bolder transitions from the defensive half.
Players like Caddy stand to gain the most from this style, as it increases the opportunities for one-on-one contests in the forward 50.
With more chances for these contests, players with Caddy’s leap and extended reach in the air present significant challenges—not only to their direct matchups but also at ground level. His ability to compete and prevent his opponent from out-marking him is crucial, while the soft drop from his contests makes him predictable for ground ball winning teammates, providing predictability about where the ball is likely to fall if he doesn’t take the mark.
Stringer averaged 3.9 shots at goal per game this season, making him the top player at Essendon and 10th overall in the competition. Langford followed as Essendon's second-best with just over 3.5 shots, and Caddy was third with 2.5 per game.
Next year, expectations are that Caddy will have more opportunities in the front half, offering more versatility to the lineup than in recent seasons. This is something he has shown he can thrive on, from his junior years, his first 10 games, and his attitude.
With a mainstay in the forward line now moved on, it will be interesting to see how the structure changes going forward, both figuratively and literally. Teammates were previously forced to adapt to accommodate Caddy, who aimed to gain experience as the number one target.
Jones spent significant time on the wing to support this, Wright rucked and was then dropped to the VFL, and Langford played higher up the ground as the season progressed. These adjustments allowed Caddy to get a taste of the role he’s always wanted to play.
Langford.
Dig a little deeper.
Langford’s 2023 season was undoubtedly the best of his nine-year career at the time, and while it may seem like he didn’t reach those same heights in 2024, the key difference lies in the final “cashing in” on opportunities.
A closer look reveals that Langford’s underlying performance remained strong once again.
In the first nine games of 2024, he had 40 shots at goal, with 27 of those coming in a five-game stretch between rounds five and nine. During that period, Essendon was at its peak, winning four out of five games (with a draw the only blemish)
Langford kicked 24 goals from those shots, and apart from the all-important miss on Anzac Day, he exceeded the expected accuracy in the other eight games.
In the forward 50, he was still able to match his impact in the air and on the ground from 2023, only dropping below his 2023 average for marks inside 50 and groundball gets later in the season, which I will elaborate on soon.
When he found space in the forward line, it gave him more opportunities for one-on-one contests, and in this metric, he improved on last year, winning over a quarter of those battles—up from just over 15%. Among forwards averaging at least two one-on-one contests per game, Langford’s 26.1% win rate ranked him inside the top 20 league-wide.
For the second consecutive year since settling into the forward line, Langford finished the season inside the top 20 for winning ground balls inside 50. Last season, he averaged 2.1 per game, finishing equal 7th, while this year he ranked equal 17th with 1.8 per game.
This is unexpected from someone 192cm tall; of all the players ranked higher, only Bontempelli and Voss are taller. This highlights Langford’s competitiveness, as he consistently followed up after marking contests, aided by his ability to keep his feet and stay engaged in the contest to win the ball again.
Like last year, Langford plays all 23 games, something that he hadn’t achieved ever to that point, backed up by playing over 73 minutes of the 80 minutes of game time, just like last year. To that point, 18 games a season was the most, with just over 66 minutes of playing time.
The flip side.
Earlier, I discussed Langford’s impressive ability to consistently win one-on-one contests. However, averaging just two such contests per game is far too limiting for what he can truly achieve. These limitations stem from multiple factors, with the most significant being the team’s reliance on slow ball movement further up the ground. Additionally, he was often asked to accommodate others in the forward line, particularly as Stringer’s midfield time dwindled and Draper spent more time deep forward.
Langford’s early-season potency—40 shots in the first nine games—slowed in the latter half, with only 41 shots across the final 14 games. He shifted from being a primary target to a more supportive role.
Where last year he was primarily on the receiving end of entries, this year he spent more of his time delivering the ball to targets inside 50. He recorded 17 inside 50s in the first nine games but tallied 45 in his last 14, highlighting the shift in his role under instructions. He was even asked on numerous occasions to push back and support defensively when required.
When Langford did have the opportunity to hit the scoreboard, his 2023 accuracy couldn't be matched in 2024. Among the top 30 goal kickers last year, Langford's accuracy of over 61% ranked him second, only behind Larkey of North Melbourne.
He began the year on target, with his first nine games showing his form, going at 60% during that time. Unfortunately, he couldn't maintain this, dropping to 46.3% in his last 14 games.
Where to now?
In 2025, multiple forwards will benefit from Stringer leaving, none more so than Langford. With Caddy’s inclusion in round 11 and playing the last nine games combined with Stringer’s reduced midfield time as the season progressed, the forward line became too congested. This congestion was further amplified by the slow and methodical ball movement in transition from up the ground.
Perkins is being talked about as a potential fill for some of the void left by Stringer. Given his versatility to play further up the ground and for longer periods in game and in season, coupled with Essendon’s increased intent to move the ball faster, Langford should enjoy more one-on-one opportunities against his direct matchup in the air, and the freedom of more space for multiple efforts at ground level.
Langford’s ability to average 1.8 marks on the lead—second most in the competition, only behind Waterman of West Coast—was particularly impressive given the difficulty in finding space around the Bombers' forwards for most of the year.
With changes to the system further up the ground and adjustments to the structure in the forward half, Langford can further enhance his opportunities to be creative with leading patterns, keeping his matchup constantly preoccupied with what is likely to happen next. This is just one of multiple flow-on effects that will aid Langford’s fellow forwards.
Part two coming up.
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