Blues vs Bombers Review

The start.

Another slow start cost Essendon dearly — again. Against the oldest and most hated of enemies (by most, if not all), the Bombers gave up the early momentum and spent the next three quarters chasing what could have been. Injury-hit but stubborn, they fought back admirably, clawing their way into the contest and sending a genuine scare through a more experienced, more settled Carlton side.

And while the result was out of reach in front of a finals-type atmosphere, there are still plenty of positives to take, not least the reminder that this arch enemy is going nowhere fast.

My notes.

My reviews always come straight from the notes I take throughout the game, capturing key moments, shifts in momentum, and the positives and negatives as they happen in real time.

In this review, I’ll walk you through those notes quarter by quarter, explaining what each observation means for how the game unfolded and what it reveals about the performance.

Where possible, I’ll support these insights with data to provide a clearer picture of what the numbers say behind the action on field.

Quarter One.

• Winning clearances but unable to maintain field position. Carlton has had five shots at goal from 11 clearances, while Essendon has none from the same number.

Coming into the game, the Blues were only turning a clearance into a shot 23.6% of the time, ranked 12th in the competition. Essendon, on the other hand, was defending stoppage losses at the 5th-best rate (23.16%).

Conceding a shot from 45.45% of Carlton’s clearances was Essendon’s 5th worst quarter of the season in that area.

• Can’t win contests post clearance ahead of the ball.

Carlton took 10 intercept marks for the quarter and were able to intercept Essendon every 3.6 possessions, Essendon’s 3rd worst quarter return of the season, behind only quarter two against Adelaide and the final quarter against Collingwood. In the end, Carlton only intercepted 13 times outside those 10 marks.

• The first four shots at goal for Carlton came from the back half.

The Bombers only intercepted the Blues every 6.43 possessions, their 15th worst quarter rate

for the year, and 4th worst first-quarter result.

Decimated by injuries down back to Reid, McKay, and Ridley, Essendon hasn’t been able to win the ball back in the air all quarter in order to help set up the ground ahead, or, importantly, behind.

• Again, Essendon giving up uncontested marks in transition.

Carlton took 31 uncontested marks for the term. This season, they only average just over 20 a quarter, the 7th most in 2025. At the current rate, they would be clear number one.

The Blues have been able to take 24 of those in the back two-thirds of the ground at a rate of one every 3.16 possessions, even lower than the Lions last week.

In Round 12, Brisbane took 31 uncontested marks in the first 20 minutes of game time.

The least amount Essendon has conceded this year was 10 against North Melbourne, the next best 20 against Collingwood and West Coast. This is a major reason why the Bombers are the easiest team to transition from defensive 50 to forward 50 this year.

• Can’t find a marking connection piece between the arcs, possession chains too short.

Essendon took just 13 uncontested marks in the back two-thirds. That hurt entries inside 50 as they were launched too far out and ended up shallow. Without that, they couldn’t apply enough frontal pressure to stop Carlton rebounding.

• Gave up six goals again in the first quarter.

That’s the second-highest first quarter score Essendon has conceded this year, only the 45 points against the Western Bulldogs ranks higher. It’s also the fourth time they’ve had six or more kicked against them in an opening term.

• Carlton controlling the tempo.

Essendon had just 30% time in possession for the quarter, compared to Carlton’s 50%. Coming in, the Blues were averaging only +3 uncontested possessions per game compared to their opponents. Essendon was averaging +12. In the first term here, Carlton was +12.

• Clarke certainly getting an experience as an undersized key defender in just his third game.

• Walsh off the leash, and his clearances are hitting the scoreboard.

Quarter Two.

• Essendon look much better when the game is in motion compared to Carlton, and now they’re forcing the game into that mode more.

After losing time in possession by 20% in the first quarter, the Bombers were able to even it up in the second — 40% to 41%. Carlton’s uncontested game was largely halted, with their uncontested possessions dropping from 65 in the term to 45 in the second.

Handball receives were up, as was forward handball, with the run forcing Carlton to tackle in order to hold the game up. The Blues applied just 15 tackles in the first quarter compared to 26 in the second.

• Have to make clearance count this time.

Despite being level at 11 apiece in clearances, Essendon couldn’t convert any of them into shots in the first quarter. while Carlton generated five. In the second, Essendon were able to nullify the influence of De Koning and Walsh at the coalface, stripping Carlton after first possession and denying them any scoreboard impact from their eight clearances, while the Bombers converted two of theirs.

• Defending without the football better.

After a disappointing first quarter, Essendon lifted their defensive pressure, intercepting Carlton every 3.58 possessions in the second term. As a result, the Blues’ average chain length in transition dropped from just over 49 metres to just under 42. Their reliance on uncontested marks in the back two-thirds was also curtailed, only 19 for the quarter. Having averaged just over one mark per possession chain earlier, that number dropped to 0.67.

• Defending the front half.

This time, Essendon’s 15 inside 50s counted. All four of their shots at goal came from front half chains, off the back of initial territory from clearance, led by Parish with five. Defensively, they limited Carlton to just one of their four shots at goal originating from the back half.

• Front half game helping the undermanned defenders.

After conceding seven marks inside 50 in the first quarter, the majority in too much space due to Essendon turnovers, Carlton managed just one in the second. The room they had to work with was shut down, as Essendon reduced the time their teammates had to move the ball forward.

• Cripps clamped.

Setterfield tightened the screws on the Carlton captain. Cripps had only nine possessions for the half, just four in the second quarter, and managed only one clearance. It was his lowest quarter of the season for both ball-winning and scoreboard impact, with just one score involvement.

• Defenders holding up at groundball inside the defensive 50.

• 1 to 1 kick to handball ratio, attacking Carlton with turn of foot and run.

Quarter Three.

• Don’t stop attacking the game.

Despite losing centre bounce clearances one to four, Essendon still managed to score a goal from their only win there, but it was around the ground where they took control.

In the first half it was Carlton getting first hands at stoppage, forcing Essendon to strip it off them to get it forward. Now the roles reversed, it was the Bombers asking the question, forcing Carlton to win it back.

They finished +7 in stoppage clearances for the quarter (11–4), but unlike earlier in the game where Parish had five on his own, this was spread: Duursma had three, Caldwell and Goldstein two each (De Koning had none), with Gresham, Durham, Setterfield and Merrett all involved across different parts of the ground.

• Now getting some rewards off intercept.

After converting just over 10% of intercepts into shots up until half-time, Essendon started to make more of their chances, with over 17% leading to shots at goal, and they came from both ends of the ground.

• Ball movement as good as it’s ever been this year.

Really started to test Carlton’s ability to defend transition.

Essendon moved it from the back half with speed, using more run and carry through the middle to push entries deeper and shift the Blues’ starting point much further from goal.

Two of their three goals from intercept began behind centre, and over 15% of possession chains ended in scores, a significant lift on the 8.35% return from the first half.

• Martin behind the ball is working.

When the game is moving, he looks like the most dangerous man on the ground.

Five of his seven possessions for the quarter were uncontested, with his vision to take the game forward and find teammates in space opening up the ground and helping drive ball movement. Two of his three rebounds have led to scores.

• Wright backed up his second quarter from last week, taking two contested marks and kicking two goals.

• They’ve done a lot of work to get back into the game — just like last week. Can they keep running and spreading for one more quarter?

• Carlton’s forwards had little impact inside 50, with only four possessions in the area for the quarter.

Quarter Four.

• Spent a lot of petrol tickets playing catch-up through aggressive ball movement, what’s left?

The game has now shifted into high transition, with chain lengths averaging over 50 metres and a high number of possessions per chain.

Last week, the Lions were able to regain control at stoppage and from there slowed the tempo with uncontested marks, forcing the Bombers to defend grass. Can’t afford to let that happen again here.

• Carlton getting on top at stoppages early.

The Blues are getting first hands on the ball pre-clearance and turning it into effective exits. De Koning is looking to be aggressive in the ruck, and Walsh is on the move again after being nullified in the middle two quarters, where he was kept to 10 possessions after starting with nine in the first.

Early on, Essendon were stripping Carlton from first possession, but now it’s flipped. On several occasions, the Bombers have won it initially, only to dish it off to a teammate in no position to receive, or found themselves closed down too quickly to work it from inside to out.

Centre clearance losses are forcing Essendon to start too far from goal. In the second half, they’ve won just one of eight. Around the ground, it’s more of the same, losing stoppages two to nine in the final quarter. Possession chains are having to start too deep, and efficient ball movement with more dare is needed late in the game.

• The want to attack is still there as Carlton fold back numbers behind the ball.

The young Bomber brigade isn’t afraid to move the ball when the opportunity presents. Johnson, Clarke, and Day Wicks are changing angles by foot, while Martin continues to provide run and gets from contest to contest to support. Some turnovers are proving costly, but they’re coming from a genuine desire to win.

The curious case of the Captain.

For the second week in a row, Merrett spent extended minutes in defence, and after hearing the debate unfold on the broadcast, post-game radio, and likely across every social platform since, I thought it was time to weigh in.

At face value, it might seem counterproductive to have arguably Essendon’s best player of the past two decades positioned behind the ball rather than at the coalface. But given the current state of the side, the reasons for the move are more than justified.

Once again, the back group came in undermanned, Johnson playing just his second game, Clarke his third, Roberts his 16th, and Prior with only 50 games behind him. That’s a raw group by any measure. Placing Merrett back there provided a level head to stabilise and direct, giving the more seasoned defenders, Laverde and McGrath, the freedom to focus purely on their direct opponents.

Without the added responsibility of organising those around them, they could concentrate on their contests and balance the decision-making between when to defend and when to attack.

It’s worth noting that Merrett was being tagged by a player whose only job was to negate, offering nothing in terms of ball-winning, link and run, or want to hit the scoreboard. In that context, shifting Merrett behind the ball actually helped Essendon defensively, allowing them to effectively defend one less meaningful forward.

Yes, centre-forward would’ve been an option, but all that would’ve done is force Carlton to restructure their forward line and throw another genuine scoring threat in the front half, not what you want when you’re already stretched down back.

Importantly, Essendon weren’t losing the midfield battle, not even close. They were +10 in clearances against Brisbane to three-quarter time, and +9 against Carlton.

Against the Lions, it was +28 in scores from stoppage to three quarter time, and after quarter time against the Blues, they outscored them 19–0 from the same source.

That control around the ball gave them territory, field position, and allowed the intercept game to go to work, 25 points came from that in the second and third quarters alone.

The midfield was doing the job, which meant Merrett could sacrifice his own game to help hold the rest of it together behind the ball.

What happens this week might not be any different.

Geelong have three “stoppers” in their lineup, Atkins, Mullin, and O’Connor, along with a dynamic, high-scoring forward group, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar situation play out again, especially until Essendon starts recouping their first-choice defence.

The end.

A slow start to games has been a common theme for Essendon this year, largely due to their struggles defending the opposition’s method of attack.

The Bombers have shown for too long a weakness in stopping how teams want to move the ball, which was exposed early in the season when they couldn’t deny uncontested marks. In this game, if you show any vulnerability, it’s rightly noted, and now teams are putting that information to good use from the opening bounce.

There’s clearly a message getting through at the first break, the adjustments are having an impact, but now it’s about being ready earlier. Understanding what’s coming, and being able to recognise and respond in quarter, rather than having to wait for quarter or half time to reset.