Bombers vs Cats Preview

An abbreviated version.

This preview could’ve easily extended another 10 or 20 minutes. From a tactical standpoint, there’s no side more fascinating to watch than Geelong, and trying to unpack their intent in real time is always compelling.

Their mix of players, and the way they shift roles and positions from week to week, even quarter to quarter, gives Chris Scott a wide range of levers to pull.

As much as I’d like to dive into all the notes I’ve got on them, this week I’ve stuck to the broad strokes.

Last time.

While this game, for most, will be remembered for the crucial umpiring decisions at a critical part of the third quarter, my details and memory reflect that Essendon thought they knew what they were going to get from Geelong, but that’s not what they got.

Coming in, the Cats averaged the most possessions won via contest, with over 42% earned this way. Given the wet conditions, the expectation was that Geelong’s game would centre around contest as usual.

Instead, across the game, they won possession via contest just 39% of the time. The remaining 61% was largely built through 93 uncontested marks, a number only Brisbane had averaged more than at that point, and well above Geelong’s season average of 70.8, which was the lowest in the league. Leading into the game, Essendon was averaging +10 in uncontested marks, while Geelong were at -5, but on this day, the Cats finished +24.

That gave them unpressured ball movement, and it translated on the scoreboard, over 54% of their total score came from the back half, 57 points in total, more than 20 above their season average.

Chalk and cheese.

Geelong aren’t vulnerable in any particular area that Essendon typically exploits, so a lot is going to have to come down to the Bombers improving on what they’ve shown across the first 12 games.

Despite sitting 4th on the ladder with a 9-4 record and boasting one of the stingiest defences in the competition, conceding just 77.6 points per game, the 6th fewest, the Cats have shown some cracks in specific areas.

Where they do show weakness is in their ability to defend scores efficiently from both clearances and turnovers.

They sit 14th for preventing a clearance from becoming a shot, with only Port Adelaide, GWS, Richmond and North Melbourne ranked lower. On turnover defence, they’re 11th, the lowest-ranked team among those currently inside the top eight. But despite those weaknesses, none of this aligns with an area where Essendon typically threatens.

Cheese and chalk.

The Bombers are 6th for total clearances, that includes centre clearances and stoppages around the ground, with a +2.9 clearance differential this season. However, they rank only 15th at effectively turning those wins into shots at goal. While in the turnover game, also being 15th at converting intercepts into shots isn’t going to ask enough questions of Geelong’s defensive structure on a regular basis.

Things don’t look promising when comparing Geelong’s ability to punish turnovers with Essendon’s capacity to defend them.

Only the Magpies convert an opposition turnover into a shot at a better rate than the Cats, while just five teams rank below the Bombers for defending those turnovers. This stands out as the biggest concern between the two sides, with the Bombers conceding an average of 53 points per game from turnovers, the second most after 12 games.

Geelong’s scoring power also carries through when the game is stopped, with just under 28% of their clearances resulting in a shot at goal this season. Only the Western Bulldogs convert at a better rate. This is where Essendon show their best defensive profile in score sources, with only four teams ranking better at defending clearances.

New in 2025.

Geelong’s preferred approach with ball in hand has shifted from last year. This time, instead of taking the least amount of marks per game, they take the second most, only behind Brisbane. The biggest concern for Essendon once again is the continued problem of uncontested marks.

The Cats take the third most uncontested marks a game, with the second-lowest rate of disposals per uncontested mark, only behind Brisbane. That doesn’t line up well for Essendon, as the Bombers concede the most uncontested marks to their opponents, the most per possession chain, and give up the fewest disposals between each of those marks.

It plays a huge part in why they’re the worst team at defending end-to-end transition, and that doesn’t look good coming up against the second best team in the competition at going coast to coast.

The heat of the potato.

Coming into this game, Geelong have the highest kick-to-handball ratio, while at the other end, Essendon have the lowest. It means the Bombers’ handball game is going to have to hold up under the pressure applied by the Cats, and positioning from Essendon’s defenders will need to be on point, with how much space is being given up, and how quickly the ball is likely to be coming in their direction by foot.

The handball game can feed Geelong’s tackle pressure, which currently sees them as the number one tackling team in the competition. So just passing on that heat to a teammate by hand isn’t going to help things. Poise in these moments will be required, as well as representation ahead of the field as a target by foot when needed.

Ahead? Behind?

Defensively, the Cats like to free up a player behind the ball, which shores up their defence, helps them win the ball back, and from there the chaos starts, teammates spreading into space and taking the ball forward.

They create this by pushing numbers up the ground — what I call a “second wave of midfielders” coming from their half forwards. This support makes it difficult to get clear with clean, unpressured possessions, which in turn strengthens their intercept game behind the ball. How Essendon deals with this spare player will be key early.

Traditionally, this has been Stewart, who Geelong sets the game up for, but this is a matchup Guelfi has taken on in the past and been successful against, so look for it to happen once again.

Even if Stewart has the clamps applied, their options down back still include Henry and O’Sullivan, both inside the top 35 for intercept marks, along with Guthrie and De Koning, who are more than capable, making this defensive lineup a powerhouse in the air.

Oof.

That’s the reality. Geelong are system-strong, positionally sound, and well-balanced across all three lines. But that doesn’t mean there’s no path forward, it just means the approach has to shift. Not to winning every phase, but to chip away at the areas most within reach. From here, it’s about setting process-driven goals that give Essendon a starting point in the game, and a way to disrupt Geelong’s structure, even if only in moments.

The other side of the coin.

The Bombers have shown in quarters, and sometimes halves, that their stoppage game can stand up. None more so than two weeks ago against Brisbane, when they went head-to-head with a powerful, premiership-winning midfield and used this score source to claw their way back into the game, both in attack and defence.

On that night, Essendon led pre-clearance contested possessions in the first three quarters by 10. That allowed them to get first possession at the coalface, against the third-best team in this metric, and then turn that into an effective clearance almost 77% of the time, against the second-best team at defending clearance efficiency. By three-quarter time, 37 of Essendon’s 54 points had originated from this phase of the game. A repeat performance might not be easy, but it’s realistic, and well within reach.

Improving punishment both for and against from turnovers would bring the biggest change to the scoreboard.

Essendon’s best results in punishing opposition turnovers have come sporadically throughout games. Their second half against Adelaide in Round 2 was the standout, converting almost 42% of the Crows’ turnovers into shots. They followed that up the next week against Port Adelaide, with over 36% going back over the Power’s head, also in the second half.

A realistic goal this week is to simply hit the AFL average, which sits just over 20% in 2025. What does that look like in game? Think back to Essendon’s second quarter comeback against Collingwood on Anzac Day, or more recently, their last quarter against Carlton just last week.

The improvement in scoring from turnovers aligns with better defending from turnovers, which also links directly to defending ball movement. All three are intertwined.

It starts with getting the work done at stoppage and getting the ball going in the right direction, then backing that up by keeping the territory gained — stopping easy exits, particularly through unpressured possession chains built on uncontested marks.

This has been a major factor in the comebacks in the last two games.

Signs.

The AFL average for uncontested marks per quarter this year is just under 20. In the first quarters against both Brisbane and Carlton, where Essendon conceded six goals, they gave up 31 uncontested marks, with 26 of those against the Lions taken in the back two-thirds of the ground, while the Blues took 24. In the third quarter, where Essendon really made their charge at the Gabba, they restricted Brisbane to 17 uncontested marks, while across the second and last quarters against Carlton, they gave up just 20.

This ability to put the game into contest mode more often not only helps prevent the ball from moving end to end, but also creates more opportunities to score from intercept, simply by increasing the number of pressured chains.

It may be a tough afternoon in the air for an Essendon forward, but they need to be aware that they can still have an impact by making sure the ball doesn’t leave their area any easier than it arrived.

Short sharp notes.

Since Round 9, Martin ranks as the fourth highest-rated player on AFL Player Ratings among those who’ve played more than two games. Only Richards (Bulldogs), Xerri (Kangaroos), and Anderson (Suns) are ahead of him in this five-game stretch, and of that group, only Richards has had a greater impact on his team’s scoring than Martin.

Geelong ranks number one for opposition possessions per effective tackle, while Essendon sits 14th.

Atkins averages the most tackles per game in the competition this season, with Setterfield ranked sixth.

Geelong and Essendon both average 112 possession chains per game, but Geelong converts just over 22% of theirs into scores, the third-best rate in the league. Essendon ranks 18th, converting just 18%

Since returning, Wright has had the 11th most set shots at goal of any player, but unfortunately, Geelong’s Cameron has had the most in that same time.

All up.

This one’s going to take a shift across multiple phases if Essendon are to walk away with four points. But like the last few weeks, the result can’t be the only measure of success.

This game has to be about process, about showing the intent to address the issues that have emerged, and maintaining the structural discipline that keeps them competitive.

Because six-goal opening quarters aren’t just damaging on the scoreboard, they force a major shift away from the trained and preferred method that needs time and continuity to evolve.

Geelong ask questions in every area. So there’s opportunity here, not necessarily in the short term, but to show growth, and to see how Essendon stands up against another team that is mature and confident in their systems.

Go Bombers!