“They don’t have to remember the day, but they will remember the moment”
Recent history
Here it is, the revenge game of 2024.
There should be no more motivation required for Essendon after last year's round 23 game.
This game should have been engraved into the change room wall as the one to win back respect after last year's performance.
They were taunted in the banner by GWS as they came out onto the ground and didn’t give a yelp in sticking up for themselves throughout the four quarters. Now, they have their turn at redemption. Make it count.
I won't delve too deeply into the metrics of the latest head-to-head match, and in fairness, I'll refrain from delving too deeply into the round four win at Marvel. All I'll say regarding both those games is that while the round 23 match was, in my opinion, the worst performance by an Essendon team since 2017, the round four game was one of the best wins of the year.
The victory was achieved through intercepting and, most importantly, halting their ball movement from the back half, an area they've proven to excel in since then, I'll discuss that later.
The loss, on the other hand, was due to multiple reasons, with a major one being the inability to replicate what led to the earlier victory.
The uncontested game
In round 2 against Sydney, Essendon allowed 70 uncontested marks outside of the Swans' 50 metre attacking zone, which I described at the time as "giving up first downs," with this being a major factor in Sydney's ball movement and eventual 59 inside 50s.
Up until last weekend in wet conditions, Sydney was ranked number two in this category, and GWS at number three.
After eight games, the Giants are averaging 70.7 uncontested marks outside their forward 50, a number that Essendon doesn't want to be allowing again this week.
GWS is the number two ranked disposal differential team in the league, with +27.9 disposals on their opponents, with the majority of that made up from uncontested possessions from link and run as part of their ball movement.
Once they have the ball in their hands, it’s an extremely difficult task in getting it back, an area that Essendon has struggled with not just in 2024, but for years now.
To be able to compete on a regular basis against the best teams throughout the season, the Bombers really need to work on how to improve this.
Clearances part 1
Considering the players GWS has around the contest who follow the ball, it’s surprising to see them ranked 16th in clearance differential, an area that has been a past strength for this list. Here Essendon has an advantage, with its differential of +5 and second in this measurement. I’ll cover the names in this part of the setup later on.
In one way, it’s surprising the Giants losing out in this measurement. but in another, it’s not. Coach Kingsley spent a lot of time at Richmond under Hardwick, and this part of the game wasn’t a bother through that successful era, preferring to prioritise post clearance as a measurement to success, with the plan being to intercept the ball and punish the opposition going the other way, a plan that Kingsley has brought over and something that has worked since the back half of last year.
Because of this preference, in 2024, the Giants give up territory, and a majority of their possession chains begin in the back half.
53.3 opposition inside 50s is mid-table and only slightly better than the AFL average.
If the Bombers can sustain their ability to win the ball in the immediate area and efficiently transition out of those zones while maintaining a balanced mix of inside and outside players, and make the right decisions in exiting while finding targets forward, it will force the Giants' defenders to focus more on defending their positions and engaging in one-on-one matchups rather than solely relying on intercepting the ball.
Intercepting
Because of the Giants' preferred style of play, if they don’t secure the initial possession, they heavily rely on their strong defensive line to contest aerial battles, with Taylor, Buckley, and Idun consistently contributing to their success.
This season, they're averaging over 16 one-on-one contests in their defensive half, the highest among all teams.
Despite having the most one-on-one contests in their defensive zone, they lose just over 26% of them, elevating their ranking to 9th.
Their back half still faces challenges, their opposition is generating a shot at goal 45.8% of the time they enter their defensive third, which is just above the AFL average. However, Essendon needs to enhance its effectiveness within this area.
The Bombers currently generate a shot per inside 50 at 44.3%, with them only ranked above five other teams, none of which are in the top eight.
Now is the perfect time to improve this success rate.
Rebound
While Essendon relies on a spread of Martin, Redman, and McGrath for rebounding from the defensive 50, GWS primarily looks to Whitfield and Himmelberg, with Idun and Ash ranking much lower in this metric.
Whitfield stands out for his role in ball movement, with only Nick Daicos and Houston ranking above him for first possessions of a chain that lead to a score from all backmen up until last weekend.
Essendon's small to medium forwards need to be alert to curtail Whitfield's influence.
These players must quickly shift from attack to defence, track his positioning, and capitalise on scoring opportunities when they arise.
This could involve assigning a lockdown forward, perhaps Guelfi, who has had similar roles this season, providing it doesn’t disrupt team balance.
Gresham's start with Essendon has been impressive and worth every penny, averaging over a goal and just under six score involvements per week, his best in his career.
His inside 50 work, averaging 2.4 groundballs inside the area, ranked equal 8th of all players, hasn’t gone unnoticed.
If he positions himself effectively within 60-70 metres from goal and his teammates can give him enough opportunities, he'll create problems for GWS's half backs.
Ball movement
Due to the clearance differential GWS faces, and their preference for defending with key backs intercepting the ball behind the play, the Giants' strength lies in their ball movement, an area Essendon aims to improve in defending, and a large step needs to take place here.
GWS ranks first for points scored from chains originating in the back half, averaging 43 points per game, while Essendon concedes an average of 35.1 points from the same source which has them ranked 13th best.
Whitfield and Himmelberg often take kickouts after points, aiming to hit targets and then receive handballs while teammates spread wide ahead, creating open lanes for movement.
The half forwards play a significant role in supporting this strategy.
This a big reason in why the Giants are the number one ranked team for metres gained differential via handballs this year.
The modern game asks a lot of small, fleet footed half forwards with large tanks to get up the ground to help in transition, and the Giants are strong here.
Daniels, Bedford, O’Hallaran, Peatling, Thomas, and recently Jones demonstrate GWS's depth in this area.
Outside of Daniels, who was an unused sub against Brisbane two weeks ago, the others combined for 26 score involvements in that win.
This will not only be a test for McGrath, Martin and Redman who look the logical choices to be be asked questions here first , but will also be a big test for all 18 on the field.
Decisions must be made regarding whether to track opponents up the ground and to what extent, requiring effective communication with Essendon's half forwards and midfielders to cover gaps and mark opponents as they move through the area. Defenders cannot hesitate in adjusting matchups and advancing to close space on the Giants as they move into the front third, quick reactions and decisive decisions are crucial.
Clearances part 2
Earlier, I discussed Essendon's advantage in clearances in this game, with seven of the top 12 in this stat being from the Bombers and the remainder from the Giants, led by ruckman Briggs, followed by Green and Coniglio.
Briggs's weekly average of 6.6 clearances per game may be masking that surprising weakness I spoke of earlier.
Perkins, Durham, Parish all rank ahead of their next best player, Kelly.
Considering this, it may be advantageous for Essendon to create more stoppages outside of centre bounces than the average of 58.9 in GWS' games, which ranks fourth lowest in the league.
When Carlton defeated them in round six, the Blues dominated clearances and contested possessions, winning by +16 and +34 respectively, a lot of that resulting in 17 shots at goal and 62 points from stoppages, the most the Giants have conceded all year.
With Briggs attending almost 65% of ruck contests around the ground and an undersized Riccardi and Cadman providing some relief, it is likely that Essendon will select Bryan as the second ruck option. The two Essendon talls should aim to work over Briggs at every opportunity, while Wright spends his time as a permanent forward to ensure that the key GWS intercepting defenders have matchups to prioritize.
I’m a big fan of the setup the Bombers are employing around contests between the arcs, which is centered around numbers for support in winning or maintaining tackling pressure within the immediate vicinity.
Keep up that work this week with a good balance of inside and outside coverage, along with the advantage of having two dedicated rucks, and that’s a great start to a winning formula.
The match ups
In my view, Greene's matchup appears to be Kelly, assuming a full lockdown role in the back half, with no extension on the leash this week.
However, Greene can work up and start in centre bounces an average of 3.3 times per game. His strategy there is to become lost in the chaos and gradually advance forward to disrupt the Essendon midfielders and forwards, often swapping positions O’Hallaron.
Hogan's recent performance against Essendon confirmed the Bombers' pursuit of McKay's signature last year, and now they have the opportunity to test that investment.
If Essendon succeeds in halting GWS's possession chains going forward, Hogan acts as the conduit between the defensive and forward halves by presenting himself as a kickout option.
It will be intriguing to see whether McKay accompanies him up the ground, a tactic the Giants might employ to centralise Laverde as the primary defender against the taller Riccardi in the backline.
Conclusion
Regardless of the outcome – win, lose, or draw – GWS must come off the ground with the sense of having engaged in a physically demanding battle, a genuine hard-fought game.
They should depart with a mindset of renewed respect for Essendon in future encounters, leaving a lasting impression on the Giants as a memory of the intensity and physicality characteristic of clashes with Essendon going forward.
Go Dons !
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