I said in an earlier post that I would be concentrating on the process over outcome this year. Win, lose, or draw, I’m not fussed what the final score is. Hopefully, I can continue to look at games that way for the rest of the season. I want to be seeing something that’s sustainable for long-term success. I would’ve liked to have seen it happen years ago, to be frank, but there’s no better time than now to start.
First game, plus mid-March, plus 30 degrees, isn’t a great combination for digging too deep into analysis. Add the four end-of-season recruits, and it can get dirtier. Now, let’s mix all of that in with playing a team that attacks their enemy like a Japanese aviator from the 1940s. Hmm, how far should I go?
I’ll start with individuals in how and what they brought to the game, and then on the puzzle that was the process.
Archie Perkins, I should just start and finish with that. While the word “potential” can be a source of inspiration and motivation, it also has the possibility to create pressure and uncertainty if not balanced with responsibility. I hope this is the start of the end for the word “potential” in relation to Archie.
Based on AFL Player Ratings, which is a points measurement from Champion Data that rates each player’s impact in three areas: how you win the ball, where on the ground you win it, and then how you use it. Perkins easily had his most impactful game of his now 63-game career.
His 24 disposals equaled his previous best in Round 17 last year, but this time it was followed by more punishment in team and scoreboard impact. Nine of those disposals were won in contests, eight were from clearances, and six of those came at centre bounce.
Considering that Essendon won centre clearances 18 to 9 and scored three goals directly from there, it’s safe to say he had a huge say in the scoreboard.
Of his 24 disposals, over 40% of them were part of the score, and three of those were from chains that he started, the icing on the cake being two direct goal assists, that’s the last disposal that ends in a teammate’s goal.
But it wasn’t just on the attacking side that he had a major say, defensively, he worked hard also.
64% of his disposals were in the defensive half, they included three from inside defensive 50 that helped rebound from the area.
His 12 tackles out of Essendon’s 61 showed his willingness to compete. With that effort and numbers to back it up, I dare say we’ll see more “air time” in the midfield, especially while waiting for Parish to get back to full fitness.
New recruit Ben McKay put an early stamp on why five clubs, if not more, chased his signing at the close of 2023.
By the end of last year, he was the number one ranked defender for intercept marks to intercept possession rate. He was also ranked 5th for intercept marks per one on one, only behind Stewart, Vlaustin, McGovern, and Logue. All of this was on show against the Hawks.
Of his seven intercept possessions, five of them were intercept marks, with three of those intercept marks taken contested.
Essendon only took 11 intercept marks in total. In defensive 50, he was registered with three one-on-one battles, losing none of them. If only Reid could’ve joined in beside him for longer, it forced McKay to play 100% game time on a sunny Saturday afternoon, one of only five players for the round that did.
Major shoutouts to McGrath for his nine rebound 50s of his 19 kicks and the five running bounces that went with it.
His want to generate run and overlap couldn’t be missed.
While Perkins did his clearance work at four versus four at centre bounce, Setterfield did his work outside there.
Five of his seven coming at stoppages around the ground, with a lot leading to the game-high seven inside 50s. Like Archie, his defensive side didn’t go unnoticed with eight tackles and four rebound 50s.
Guelfi added four goal assists to his two goals in his selfless work to nullify Sicily.
Great initiative from the coaches’ box in putting the trust in him to deliver and he certainly did. Sicily was Hawthorn’s number one player for intercept marks in 2023 and 7th overall last season. Here he only contributed one.
He’s not just important in winning the ball for them, but also starting attacks from his foot skills. He was the number one defender for starting a possession chain that leads to a score, again, Guelfi had his measure with Sicily on having two this time.
Big ticks for Stringer with his efficiency; four marks inside 50 for his four goals.
Goldstein was instrumental at centre clearance, with five of his hitouts resulting in scores from the area.
Heppell held his own in the defensive half with nine intercept possessions and nine contested possessions, eight of them won at ground level.
Finally, Gresham. Five contested possessions won with three of them in the forward 50 at ground level, an area Essendon needs to improve on in 2024.
Kudos to the whole midfield brigade I named earlier with Durham, Tsatas, Caldwell, and Kelly, all playing their part in helping to cover for the absence of the third-ranked player in disposals and clearances last year, Darcy Parish.
I can’t overlook Merrett.
The consistent performance he delivers week after week is remarkable, further solidifying his role as Captain.
Notching up 31 disposals has become routine for him. Coupled with a 77% effectiveness rate from those disposals, along with five rebounds from defensive 50, and deliveries inside 50, it showcases the versatility and completeness he adds to the team setup.
Now to take a deep dive into that mixture that was the process of Round 1.
Time to be frank again. That process will not win big games at the pointy end of the season, in fact, it won’t get you to that stage, it won’t get you anywhere near it.
There are two main aspects to the possession chain data above:
Essendon with the football, and Hawthorn with the football, or as we’ve heard for the last few years, Essendon without the football.
As you can see, the +11 differential in possession chains is a good starting point.
110 times to start a chain isn’t a lot, to be fair, it’s around the same average from 2023, but below the AFL average.
Another good starting point in those chains is that they end inside 50 at just over 46% of the time, also around AFL average.
It’s also quite effective in going on the scoreboard 23.6% of the time.
Some fair numbers to start the year off when in possession.
Here’s an early warning though if you’re feeling a little queasy right now, skip the next three paragraphs and go straight down to the conclusion.
Hawthorn’s 99 possession chains are a great beginning for the Bombers, a lot off the back of centre clearance dominance. It’s what happened to those 99 opportunities that’s the problem.
Over 57% of them ended inside forward 50, as I said earlier, Essendon’s average of just over 46% is a good starting point, but over 57% going the other way is flat out horrific.
Over 12% worse than Hawthorn’s 2023 average and over 5% worse than the 18th ranked team last year, the West Coast Eagles.
Having those chains turn into scoring shots 28.2% of the time cannot continue, plain and simple. This was coming from a team that finished 16th last year, and we know there are a lot more tougher games ahead.
54 intercepts a game isn’t cutting it against better opponents this year, it needs to be more than the AFL average of 66.9, realistically needing to be 70 plus.
33.4% of the time it went inside 50, it was marked. Yes, Reid went down early in the game, and Ridley being out didn’t help, but it’s what’s happening ahead of the ground that’s the problem.
Between the arcs, that’s between the two 50-metre lines, the Hawks had 221 disposals, while the Bombers could only intercept the ball through marking twice.
The foot skill execution D’ambrosio and Amon possess was on full show.
Of the 29 kicks D’ambrosio and Amon had for the day, 20 of them were effective, eight were rebounding from defensive 50, 17 were part of a score, and nine were the first disposals of a possession chain that led to a score.
The Essendon front half played a part in their effectiveness, but the midfield zone in defending has an enormous amount of work ahead to get right.
Conclusion:
While there were both positives and negatives in the game, it’s crucial for the team to learn from the experience, adapt, and strive for improvement.
The journey to success requires perseverance and a willingness to address shortcomings. With the next challenge against the Swans in Sydney looming, it’s imperative to maintain focus and continue on the path of growth and development.
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