Bombers vs Swans

The challenges keep coming.

After seven games, Essendon finds itself on the positive side of the win-loss ledger at 4–3, aided by a relatively favourable fixture to start the season. But that early advantage now gives way to a more challenging stretch: a six-game block featuring four matchups against 2024 finalists. It’s a period that will provide a clearer indication of what this team has learned through the opening phase of the year, and whether those lessons can be sustained for longer periods within games.

So far, Essendon has shown glimpses of promise, producing strong quarters at various points, but is still searching for a consistent four-quarter performance. Sydney, by comparison, has had a similarly uneven start to 2025, but in their best moments, they’ve reminded the competition of their high ceiling, one that saw them finish atop the ladder in 2024 with 17 wins and the league’s highest-scoring offence. This week’s contest will hinge on whether Essendon can extend its better moments across more of the game, while limiting the damage Sydney inflicts during theirs.

The last meeting.

Whatever slim chance Essendon had of making the finals was done and dusted by three-quarter time in Round 23 against Sydney.

Despite starting the game promisingly with almost 60% time in forward half during the first quarter, Essendon couldn’t convert that dominance on the scoreboard, an inefficiency that had plagued the second half of their season.

Once Sydney was able to even out the clearance battle that Essendon had controlled early, the hard work the players had put in all year was undone in a 20-minute burst in the third quarter, as Sydney kicked six goals and effectively put the game beyond doubt.

Looking forward.

One of the most influential areas in determining weekly performance, and ultimately success, is the centre bounce. In recent weeks, it’s been a growing concern for Essendon.

Across the season, the Bombers sit 13th in centre clearance differential, averaging a deficit of -1.1 per game. But their recent form paints an even more telling picture.

Since their early-season bye, Essendon has lost the centre clearance count in three of four games, with a cumulative deficit of nine. While this hasn’t immediately reflected on the scoreboard, Essendon actually holds a +35 point differential from scores sourced from centre bounces, it has had, and will continue to have, flow-on effects in other areas of the ground.

What’s affected?

The failure to win centre clearances is contributing to an increase in opposition inside 50 entries, placing immediate pressure on the defensive group.

It often forces defenders into one-on-one contests and pushes Essendon’s starting points for possession chains much deeper in their own defensive half, making transition and forward connection more difficult.

Across those five games, Essendon ranks as the second-worst team in the league for securing first possession at centre bounce stoppages, with Durham being the only Bomber ranked inside the top 50 players in this metric.

A returning Caldwell will provide support, and with Parish hopefully not far off, Essendon will aim to reunite its key inside-outside dynamic alongside Merrett. That combination, transitioning the crucial pre-clearance ball from inside to outside, will be vital in gaining territory ascendancy.

Over the course of the season, Sydney hasn’t fared much better, currently sitting one spot below Essendon in centre clearance differential. But while the Bombers have used a wide range of players at centre bounce, the Swans have relied on a consistent core, Heeney, Rowbottom, Warner, and Jordon have each attended over 50% of centre bounces, alongside ruck Grundy.

What this Sydney midfield mix has is a balance of attack, with leg speed and kicking skills, along with a defensive mindset that I expect Merrett will be up against in this game.

Aye aye Captain.

The Essendon skipper is the sixth-highest-rated midfielder of 2025, and among the top 10 in this list, none are winning more of the ball than his 31 possessions. Only Bontempelli is having a bigger influence on his team's scoreboard through score involvements, goal assists, and shots on goal. Unfortunately, I expect his ball and chain for the game to be Jordan, who has been tasked as Sydney’s preferred tagger since his move north. Essendon will need more teammates to step up and fill any void left by Merrett’s impact.

Contests, contests, and more contests.

Essendon’s midfielders lowered their colours in the contested battle across four quarters against Collingwood two weeks ago. That struggle was reinforced last week when North Melbourne got on top in the third quarter, highlighting that fixing this area will be a major factor in their success.

Pre clearance contests.

In last week’s review I highlighted Essendon’s struggles in winning contests pre clearance, but if they can recapture their early-season form for longer periods, they’ll give themselves a much better chance to control the most important part of the ground.

This isn’t a strength for Sydney. Essendon has the two highest-ranked players in this metric between the two teams, Durham and Tsatas, with Jordan the highest-ranked Swan, followed by Merrett, then Heeney and Caldwell. Win the ball on the inside, get the balance right on the outside, and hopefully, the ball is heading the right way more often than not.

Post clearance contests.

I’ve touched on this over the past few weeks and will keep highlighting it, as it’s been one of the most encouraging areas of early-season growth: the defenders’ ability to win contests behind the ball.

Since the Adelaide loss, Essendon has been the top-ranked side for winning contests outside of clearance, and three defenders have been central to that shift. Roberts ranks 14th, McGrath 21st, and Reid 45th in that category, with all three also sitting inside the top 50 for intercept possessions over the same stretch.

Of the 31 defenders to average more than two one-on-one contests over the past five games, Reid stands alone at the top, not losing a single one of his 15 contests in this time, with Taylor, Silvagni, and Sicily rounding out the next few spots.

Up the other end of the ground is another key reason for Essendon’s post-clearance improvement.

Both Caddy and Wright sit inside the top 10 key forwards for contested possessions since the Adelaide game, making Essendon the only team with two forwards in the top 12. They’ve been consistently competing, whether it’s taking marks or drawing free kicks against their matchups, and this week presents another opportunity, as Sydney’s defenders prefer to position themselves “back shoulder” and that could work in Essendon’s favour.

It won’t just be about winning contests ahead of the ball; it’ll also be about not losing them at ground level, as this is where the next most important part of the game will come for Essendon.

Front to back.

To this point in the season, Essendon sits mid-table in winning groundballs inside the forward 50 when a mark isn’t taken, claiming possession just over 36% of the time. While the ideal scenario is always hitting a marking target, being able to lock the ball in and win it back at ground level will be vital this week. It creates more chances to score from stoppages or general play and, just as importantly, reduces Sydney’s ability to transition end-to-end and hit the scoreboard.

Essendon is currently the 5th worst team at defending opposition rebounds that start in the forward 50 and end in a score. While Sydney hasn’t turned ball movement into a major strength so far in 2025, the potential is still there, especially after ranking 7th in this area last year.

Trending in the right direction.

Week by week, the Bombers have shown improvements in defending turnovers.

After conceding over 100 points from this source in Round 2 alone, the Bombers have since allowed just 54 shots on goal across the last five games, an average of just over 40 points per game, ranking them 6th best in that period.

But this week presents a major test. Sydney has generated 72 shots on goal from turnovers in the same five-game stretch, averaging 56+ points, the number one side in the competition from this score source.

Deny, deny, and deny.

Once Sydney gets their hands on the ball, Essendon’s ability to switch into defensive mode quickly will be crucial in shutting down scoring opportunities.

Last year, Sydney recorded 90 or more uncontested marks on 13 occasions, winning 11 of those games. The only two losses came by margins of three and two points. But opposition teams have clearly taken notice, working to shut down the Swans’ most effective method of ball movement.

So far in 2025, Sydney has only exceeded 90 uncontested marks once, against North Melbourne in round four. Outside that game, they’ve averaged just 75, restricting their ability to move the ball as efficiently as they did in 2024. But Essendon is going to have to lift its own game to prevent this.

The Bombers are allowing the second most uncontested marks per game, with only Richmond conceding more than Essendon’s 91.5 average. Compounding that, no team concedes fewer disposals per uncontested mark than Essendon.

The Bombers preferred method of defence is man-on-man, and once the Swans have the ball, they can’t afford to assume they won’t take the short option by foot. Doing so allows them to shift the direction of attack, activate teammates from behind to run and create overlap, and from that point, Essendon quickly loses territory. That makes intercepting, rebounding, and moving the ball forward even more important.

Short sharp notes.

While Essendon is the 5th worst team at defending end to end transition becoming a score, Sydney is actually the 4th worst.

Defending turnovers is crucial this week, but there’ll also be a chance to score from them, just as Gold Coast showed two games ago against Sydney, where they turned almost 30% of intercept possessions into 19 shots at goal.

Kako is ranked 11th in the league for forward 50 groundballs. Of all players aged 20 or under with at least two games this season, only Fremantle’s Reid (ranked 40th) is inside the top 50 in this metric.

Warner is Sydney’s number one for scoreboard impact, with over 34% of his 21.3 disposals part of a scoring chain.

Both Setterfield and Rowbottom are ranked inside the top 11 tacklers to start the season.

Sydney averages 54.1 inside 50s per game and finds a marking target 19.4% of the time. Essendon’s opposition to date is averaging 51.1 entries but finding a mark 27.4% of the time.

All up.

After last week’s promising start from a clear method shift, and with the memory of how the last matchup at Marvel began, Essendon should back themselves against a Sydney side that hasn’t yet reached its 2024 levels.

Team selection will as always be a watch.

Both Ridley and Jones are out, and while Hayes is the closest like-for-like option for Ridley in terms of size, there’s no direct replacement for Jones. That could allow for a more mobile front third or an extra midfielder.

With a more agile lineup, another step forward in ball movement, and the home crowd behind them, the four points are within reach on Saturday evening.

Go Bombers !