Bombers vs Kangaroos Review

Same same.

The previous three weeks had been a turbulent ride for Essendon supporters, filled with highs and lows on multiple fronts. Between the injuries and frustrating patches, there have been glimpses of promise from individuals, alongside a game style that shows potential, if only it could be sustained for longer stretches.

This week followed the same script. There was early excitement as Essendon brought that promising brand again, but as has become all too familiar in 2025, maintaining that level has been the challenge. Once momentum began shifting the other way, the game fell into a pattern that fans have seen far too often this season.

A different review this week.

When I watch a game of football, all games across the round, my approach is always to take notes on the fly, quarter by quarter. It helps me get a real-time sense of what my eyes are telling me: how the game looks, for better or worse; who’s got the momentum and when; what sort of method is being used; whether it’s being executed effectively; or even if it’s the right method to begin with.

So for this review, I’ve decided to stick with that structure, laying out my thoughts as they came to me during each quarter, then using the available data, if any, to back them up and help get the point across.

Quarter one.

-Quicker ball movement, much more instinctive to shift the direction of attack with ball in hand.

Essendon moved the ball with more urgency in the first quarter, playing on from marks quicker than in recent weeks, which created run and overlap from behind. As a result, handballs were going forward to teammates on the move, rather than backwards or to players standing still.

The Bombers have averaged 34.16 handball receives (an uncontested possession of the ball that results directly from a teammate’s handball) per quarter to start the season, ranked second in the competition. In the first quarter alone, that number was 41.

The quicker decision making with ball in hand is allowing Essendon even numbers ahead of the ground, testing North Melbourne’s ability to be within close enough range to their matchups.

When not, Perkins, Hobbs, and Kako are making the most of the space, being aggressive in getting “out the back.”

The flow-on effect of having more space ahead of the ball means finding marking targets in more central positions to goal becomes easier. Essendon managed to take a mark inside 50 41.6% of the time they enter that zone, matching the same rate they achieved against Melbourne in the first quarter of Round 3.

-Can’t win contests pre clearance, especially at centre bounce, it’s affecting clearances and in turn starting possession chains behind centre.

Essendon struggling to win pre clearance contested possessions, not able to get their hands on the ball first and clear the area, particularly at centre bounce.

While centre clearance count favoured North Melbourne four to two, none of their wins transferred to the scoreboard. Still, it left Essendon starting possession chains from deeper in defence, putting pressure on their ability to transition cleanly when they won the ball back. Thankfully, the back half and midfielders have been able to absorb that and rebound well, but the positioning makes ball movement harder than it needs to be. How long can they continue “living” this way?

Defending clearances well, not just limiting North’s scoring, but hitting the scoreboard themselves.

Though Essendon lost territory in the clearance battle, both teams still managed four shots on goal from their wins. Essendon converted over 44% of their clearances, scoring four goals from nine chains. For the season, their scoring rate from clearance wins sits just under 25%.

-Playing the usual one-on-one all over the ground, but defenders aren’t winning or halving contests inside defensive 50.

Essendon’s forwards winning contests early, but down back, the defenders getting beaten, both in the air and at ground level. North Melbourne went inside 50 nine times and took four marks, generating a shot at goal from over 55% of their entries. For comparison, Essendon’s opposition had averaged 46.7% shot conversion per inside 50 coming into this game, while North Melbourne themselves were tracking at 46.8%.

-Outside of stoppage, Essendon denying North Melbourne any meaningful transition from the back half.

Essendon won time in possession by 11% and held North Melbourne to just 964 metres gained for the quarter, over 400 metres below their season average.

I’ve banged on about this a lot, but denying uncontested marks is key to Essendon slowing down opposition ball movement, and North managed only 10 uncontested marks for the quarter. Coming into the game, they had been averaging 18.6 per quarter, while Essendon had been giving up 23.7. May it continue.

That pressure on uncontested marks flowed onto ‘the easy ball.’ North Melbourne managed only 35 uncontested possessions for the quarter, well down from their season average of over 58, the fifth highest in the league. For context, Essendon had been conceding 57.8 uncontested possessions per quarter themselves, the fifth most in the comp. The proof is in the pudding.

-Not a high turnover game.

Only 17 intercepts total between the two sides, and just four shots at goal came from those turnover chains. Thankfully, three of those were Essendon’s, and two of them were converted into goals. One came from a back-half intercept, the other from the front half.

Quarter two.

-Game being played between the arcs.

After just 17 intercepts total in the first quarter, the second saw 36, as the ball bounced back and forth in the middle of the ground.

Essendon ramped up their pressure, winning the ball back every 4.1 Kangaroo possessions, an improvement from the 6.1 in the first quarter and better than their season average of 5.59 (ranked 12th). For comparison, Carlton leads the comp in that area at 4.94.

-Defending ball movement well, which in turn is helping defend turnovers again.

A huge 82.5% of North Melbourne’s possessions for the quarter came behind centre. They managed just 11 in their own front half, as Essendon kept them to only seven inside 50s.

After giving up just one point from seven turnovers in the first quarter, the Bombers backed it up, again allowing just a single point, this time from 15 turnovers. Unfortunately, the only goal conceded for the quarter came from a kick-in.

No punishment from intercepts.

While Essendon has done well defending turnovers, so has North Melbourne. In the second 20 minutes, only two of the five shots on goal came from 19 intercepts, well below the season average, where just over 20% of intercepts have resulted in a scoring shot.

-Ball movement stalled.

North Melbourne has been defending the corridor switch more effectively, making it tougher for Essendon to move the ball with any real consistency. Now forced to play in straight lines.

In the second quarter, the Bombers have recorded 27 possession chains, averaging just over 45 metres per chain, down from the first quarter, where they had 20 chains at an average length of just over 58 metres.

-Deserved better on the scoreboard.

Only 17 inside 50s for both teams, 10 for Essendon. When the Bombers do go in, they look threatening, finding a marking target on 50% of those entries, up another notch on the 41.6% of the first quarter.

Haven’t capitalized on the scoreboard, though. Broke even at clearance, kept North Melbourne to zero shots from their seven stoppage wins, and generated a shot from 42.25% of stoppage wins, but the only rewards were three points.

Quarter three.

-Centre clearances now becoming an issue.

Early on, it wasn’t as much of a factor, but as North Melbourne has tightened up in transition defence, regaining territory has become tougher. Defenders are being forced into scrambling contests both in the air and at ground level, with possession chains now beginning even further from goal.

Clearance losses are starting to hurt on the scoreboard. After restricting North to just 16% of stoppage losses ending in a shot in the first half (well below their season average of 23%), that number jumped to 30% in the third quarter.

-Can’t move the ball forward in transition.

North Melbourne’s pressure has gone up a gear, and Essendon’s ability to control tempo has dropped right off. Only 16 uncontested marks for the quarter, down from 43 across the first half. Uncontested possessions also fell, from 67 and 64 in the first two quarters to just 51 in the third. Without those outlets, the contest becomes everything.

-Losing contests in important parts of the ground. The source to start with, and then behind the ball post clearance.

The game has turned into a much more contested battle for Essendon, with the Bombers losing that fight by 14—26 to 40.

The “easy ball” is gone. It’s now about trusting teammates to win contests ahead of the play, and there hasn’t been enough support from talls pushing up to help.

North Melbourne's midfielders are on top, winning contests cleanly. Essendon's midfield, meanwhile, has managed only 14 contested possessions for the quarter, while their counterparts in the same part of the ground have won 20.

After limiting North Melbourne to 87 uncontested possessions in the first half, Essendon now finds itself reacting. The Roos have dictated the tempo this quarter with 66 uncontested possessions, forcing Essendon to defend on their terms.

-Can’t defend turnovers now.

Some poor decisions with ball in hand are making defending intercepts a tough task. North Melbourne has recorded just 15 intercepts for the quarter, but over 26% have led to a shot at goal. Their four scoring shots have come from both front-half and back-half intercepts, and they’ve all resulted in maximum points.

-The effective run and carry has disappeared.

Since Ridley left the ground, Essendon has struggled to generate overlap in the back half. McGrath, Roberts, and Prior as defenders, along with Tsatas in the midfield, are working to create options, but it looks unnatural. Their efforts aren’t helped by teammates pushing too far forward and wide, leaving little support for multiple handball receives. The Bombers linked by hand to an uncontested player just 30 times, well down from the 41 in the opening quarter.

-Missed opportunities with finishing.

Ultimately, the quarter, and the game, should’ve looked very different if Essendon had been more efficient in the front third. When they did get through in transition, they created genuinely dangerous looks, only to waste them either by picking the wrong option going inside 50 with a teammate in space, or missing shots they simply had to kick, ones that would’ve shifted the momentum right when they needed it.

Quarter four.

-This is going to be a slog.

Centre clearance was going to be key to setting up field position early. Essendon couldn’t rely purely on ball movement to generate entries, they needed to challenge North Melbourne to move the ball, which will help defend turnover chains and created intercept opportunities in the front half.

Have to keep the game contested, can’t afford to be defending clean ball with rotations down. It’s time to trust the forwards to win contests ahead of the ball again.

After only 26 contested possessions in the third term, Essendon had to get back to their early dominance, and they did, winning the count by five in the final 20 minutes. It was the younger players who stepped up: Roberts won five contests behind the ball, Reid two, Tsatas three in the midfield, and Kako three ahead of the ball.

Those inexperienced players, supported by Redman down back, Duursma pushing hard to assist in defence, Durham and Merrett in the midfield, and Wright providing a presence in the air, were able to win key intercepts or offer outlet options. That mix helped Essendon reset the ground, allowing them to better balance defence and attack.

Again, more rewards deserved through intercept.

They generated five shots at goal from intercepts, three of them from the front half, but finished with just 1.4. Still, they were far better at defending turnovers going back the other way, conceding just one of North’s three final-quarter shots from their own back half. The only goal they conceded? Coast-to-coast from a kickout. The Kangaroos’ only major for the quarter.

Final notes (almost).

-Need a midfielder who can win contests pre clearance.

For the second consecutive week, stoppages had a significant influence on both the momentum and overall look of Essendon’s game. It’s not a new problem either, it’s been a recurring issue across different periods of the 28 quarters to start the season.

Too often now, the defensive half is being asked to win contests post-clearance immediately from stoppages, and thankfully they’ve been improving game by game. But there are much harder assignments ahead, with better-equipped forwards to match up against and, more importantly, midfielders who can make better decisions if given the opportunity to win contests pre-clearance too regularly, especially by taking the ball from inside to outside into space.

Coming into this game, Essendon ranked 9th in pre-clearance contested possession differential at +0.6. But they had only faced two teams ranked above them, Melbourne (7th), who won that count by 17, and Collingwood (5th), who won it by 16. Against North Melbourne, another side ranked higher (4th), the Bombers once again lowered their colours, this time by 9.

A fully fit and available Caldwell will certainly help, especially alongside Durham, who comes in as Essendon’s top-ranked player at ground level in this measurement, currently sitting 24th. Hopefully, a still-maturing Tsatas can keep trending in the right direction too, but it’s something that has to be a real focus at season’s end.

In the offseason, the Bombers rightly went to the draft to build the list from the ground up, and in doing so looked to prioritise genuine leg speed, which was absolutely needed to help play a more lively, aggressive game with ball in hand. But after watching the last three VFL games, there still isn’t anyone on the list who looks capable of filling a role that’s been crying out for attention for years.

Final notes (almost x2)

-Still a mid short at team selection.

The weekly lineup continues to be an issue for me, with the biggest concern being a front half that’s still too tall, which then flows on to a midfielder missing out.

The current mix between the arcs is requiring another genuine ball-winner, someone who can hurt you when they win it, link up going forward, and make the right decisions more often than not, with the skill to match.

The horrific injury to Jones comes at a really unfortunate time for him, wishing him a full and speedy recovery, but I’m very curious to see what it forces from a selection point of view.

Hopefully it shifts the current coaches’ mindset, and if it goes the way I think it should, it might finally bring more versatility to the most important part of the ground: the midfield.

Final notes (almost x 3)

-Health causing changes.

Depth on the list is really set to be tested in the short term. Already, 29 players have been used this season, with Hayes looming as the likely replacement for Ridley. Parish, along with Davey, Guelfi, and Cox, are all still in the frame to return to senior football sooner rather than later. That would bring the total to 35 players used, without even dipping into the 2024 draft class or factoring in a potential mid-season draftee stepping in to fill a role.

If there’s a silver lining here, it’s the chance to get a clearer look at more of the list against strong opposition each week, provided there’s a shared understanding among supporters of what the focus is during this stretch.

Last note.

-More for longer.

In the end, a brave effort ultimately secured the points, even as the odds stacked up against them the longer the game went. However, missed opportunities earlier had a greater bearing on the final outcome.

The first quarter reflected what I have consistently written about over the last 16 months, a change in method that was reinforced as the game progressed, as Essendon slowly shifted away from what initially established the advantage.

While North Melbourne certainly lifted after the first change, that was to be expected from any opponent, straying too far from the baseline method only helped them. Gradually, the team and list must trust their teammates more, giving them greater opportunities to sustain momentum or shift the trend in the state of the game.

It’s early in the season, and from the sounds of it, the coaching instruction is to remain aggressive for longer. Every game from now on becomes a learning experience, understanding which method is needed for longer, when a change is required, and for how long.