What a display of strategic prowess and sheer determination as Essendon showcased unwavering passion and resilience in every exchange.
The match unfolded with ebbs and flows, offering invaluable lessons amidst the challenges and opportunities.
Beyond mere scores, lies a narrative of evolution, adaptation, and an unyielding quest for triumph.
Embracing this mindset for every future encounter lays the groundwork for sustained success, extending far beyond this season.
“We’ve shown strength, but honour demands more. Let’s give them a spectacle they’ll never forget.”
Few things indicate a stronger start to a game than seeing the team hit the ground running with such intensity.
Credit to both the coaching staff and players for being fully engaged and energized right from the outset of this significant occasion.
The coaches' planning paid off as the game commenced, and the players effectively executed those plans.
With four goals within the first seven minutes, compared to just three disposals from Collingwood, confidence surged, and the crowd was engaged early, setting the tone for the majority of the first quarter.
During this period, the Bombers maintained relentless pressure around the source, prompting Collingwood to resort to handballing to relieve the pressure and create space. Collingwood accumulated 37 kicks and 38 handballs during this period, but only managed to secure 12 marks for the quarter, with just six uncontested marks outside their forward 50.
Despite Collingwood's attempts to regain momentum throughout the quarter, Essendon maintained control over the game's tempo and style. This was evident in their 24 uncontested marks beyond the forward 50 from a total of 75 possessions.
In Collingwood’s first three games of the year, they lost the uncontested possession count by a total of 73, which was a significant factor in all three losses.
The strategy was to deny them of their strength from 2023, intercepts, and then capitalise on scoring from those intercepts with speed.
Last week, in their victory over Port Adelaide, they won the uncontested possession by 22 and, most importantly, won the disposal count by 50, an area they have struggled in this year. The Pies currently rank 15th in disposal differential, with their only other win in this measurement being against Hawthorn. Only four players average more than 20 disposals a game for the year, compared to eight last year.
“I’ve got a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore”
Quarter two unfolded differently as Collingwood gained more possession of the football, with a more dangerous kick-to-handball ratio.
They registered 52 kicks and 34 handballs, along with 19 uncontested marks, while Essendon managed only 15 uncontested marks.
The Bombers' ball movement struggled under Collingwood's pressure, as indicated by their +13 tackle differential for the quarter, with their 10 forward-half intercepts highlighting the pressure applied. Suddenly, Collingwood kicked four goals for the quarter, including five in a row.
At halftime, there was a need for recovery, reset, and a return to the strategies that worked well in the first quarter.
In my review of Essendon versus Port Adelaide, I explained how after quarter-time, the Power changed the game's dynamic, and Essendon struggled to regain momentum after the halftime break.
This was once again an opportunity to see if they could reverse the momentum in their favor.
I've always assessed the effectiveness of a coaching staff and team by their ability to alter the game's trajectory during the match or even within a quarter. It demonstrates the coaching staff's awareness of the game's dynamics, their ability to communicate necessary adjustments, and the players' capacity to implement those changes. Collingwood exemplified this at quarter-time, and now it's Essendon's opportunity at halftime. It's a chance for them to showcase their understanding of the game and their ability to revert the course of play back in their favor.
“Sometimes the only way to move forward is to revisit the things in your past that were holding you back.”
There's been a lot of discussion about only having two tackles inside the attacking 50, and the stats from the last two quarters shed some light as to why.
After Collingwood stifled Essendon’s ball movement in the second quarter, the Bombers made a concerted effort to keep the ball in motion, opening up the ground for more uncontested marks and linking up with run and overlap.
As a result, the game transitioned to a more intercept-focused dynamic, with 63 intercepts in the first half growing to 73 in the second.
The play was centered more between the arcs than inside the forward 50s of both teams.
Possessions in the middle zone rose from 227 in quarters one and two to 260 in three and four, largely due to more players occupying that area, including smaller forwards like Davey Junior, Gresham, and Hobbs.
While the three-tall setup obviously impacted the tackle ability with team balance, Coach Scott attributed any shortcomings to execution rather than player capability, a sentiment I agree with for now, though I still have some doubts on how effective it will be once the opposition sees more and more of it.
That halftime strategy to open up the game hindered Collingwood's ability to apply tackle pressure and congest the contest, allowing Essendon to stretch their defence and exploit open space, this was shown on numerous occasions when Essendon was able to go from inside “the bubble” to outside of it and into freedom.
The second half boiled down to making the most of individual opportunities when the moment arrived and maximizing their potential, all leading to the captivating finish we witnessed and felt a part of.
“Don’t ever let somebody tell you you can’t do something. If it’s good, it’s not good enough. We’re capable of greatness, and we won’t stop until we reach it.”
Essendon's primary scoring source once again stemmed from stoppages, accounting for 13 shots resulting in 43 points, with six of those shots originating directly from centre bounces, contributing to 21 points.
Meanwhile, there were 12 shots generated from intercepts, totaling 42 points.
On the other hand, Collingwood managed only nine points from four shots from stoppages but capitalized with 17 shots from intercepts, scoring 57 points.
Of particular concern was Collingwood's proficiency in scoring from kickouts. While Essendon has made strides in this aspect in 2024, few teams throughout history have been as skilled at exploiting this as Collingwood. Therefore, there is no better team to analyze and study when it comes to addressing this issue moving forward.
Despite opponents managing just nine shots from kickouts in the previous six games, this week saw three unbroken chains from kickouts resulting in goals.
Effectively defending turnovers is crucial, but equally important is capitalizing on opportunities to punish the opposition.
Both aspects, defending turnovers and converting them into scoring opportunities, require refinement throughout the season to consistently challenge top teams.
While Essendon may not currently be in discussions about finals or premierships, it's worth noting that nine of the past ten premiers have ranked in the top six in scores from turnover differential, with the Bulldogs in 2016 being the sole exception, ranking seventh.
Currently, the AFL average for shots via clearance strike rate stands just above 24%, indicating the conversion of clearances into shots at goal. Essendon slightly exceeds this average at 25.4%.
In terms of defending scores from clearances, Essendon's opponents are averaging just over 2% worse.
Considering there are nearly twice as many intercepts per game compared to stoppages based on the AFL average of 2024, it underscores the importance of both generating and defending scores from intercepts.
Despite this, Essendon is only generating an additional 13 shots from intercepts compared to stoppages, while opponents have more than doubled their stoppage chances.
“The only thing standing between you and your goal is the story you keep telling yourself as to why you can’t achieve it. Let’s rewrite that story and aim for greatness.”
I've previously mentioned that Essendon's hallmark of past seasons, their prowess in ball movement, has yet to reach the same heights this year.
In recent times, the Bombers have been efficient and effective in transitioning the ball from defence to dangerous scoring positions and ultimately, onto the scoreboard.
Getting another look at this against the top team of 2023 early in the season allows for assessment, note-taking, and continuous improvement of both successful and unsuccessful strategies within the team's structure.
Here I’ll look at the performance of the two teams beyond just inside 50s, extending it to deeper entries closer to the goal.
These deeper entries create more pressure at ground level in tighter spaces and force the opposition to start their possession further from their goal if or when they have the opportunity.
On Thursday, Essendon went within 25 metres of the goal just over 56% of the time they entered the forward 50, while Collingwood achieved this over 71% of the time.
Outside of centre bounces, Essendon managed to advance within 25 metres of the goal only 10 times when starting possession chains from behind the halfway point, compared to Collingwood's 15.
The Magpies capitalized on these opportunities, generating 10 shots at goal from possession chains originating within 75 metres from the goal, resulting in five goals and five behinds.
Conversely, Essendon had five shots from chains originating in the same zone, resulting in two goals and three behinds.
This comparison is not intended to highlight Essendon's shortcomings, rather, it serves to illustrate the potential the team can strive for and achieve moving forward, both literally and figuratively.
“Get busy living, or get busy dying”
After Port Adelaide’s Horne Francis dominated three weeks ago at centre bounces and stoppages, there was anticipation for De Goey to seize his chance against the Essendon midfield. Here, the coaching staff claimed victory in part A with strategic planning, while Stringer executed part B flawlessly.
Head coach Scott, alongside midfield coaches Giansiracusa and Stanton, devised a plan during the week to neutralize De Goey's impact around stoppages and centre bounces by using Stringer to go head to head with him in that area and force his match up to be accountable to him.
In his first six games, Stringer averaged starting at centre bounces five times per game. However, this week, that number surged to 21. Of his 19 disposals, 15 were contested, with 11 won at ground level.
Eight of these led to clearances, six of which were centre clearances that all penetrated inside 50.
His 11 score involvements were equal best for the game, including five first possessions in chains resulting in a score.
With Essendon having six shots directly from centre bounces and Stringer accounting for eight of his disposals in that area, his impact was undeniable.
Comparatively, De Goey also attended 21 centre bounces but only managed one centre clearance. Considering his ranking as the number one Collingwood player in centre clearances, and his nearly five inside 50s per game average, limiting him to just two of those was pivotal in keeping the game competitive for so long.
Throughout his 141 games, McGrath has rated higher on Champion Data's Ranking Points only five times more than his game this week, with three of his top five performances occurring in his last nine games.
On Thursday, he showcased both his rebounding skills and defensive abilities when the team needed them most.
McGrath led the disposal count with 31, of which 25 were effective, including 19 kicks. He also secured two intercept marks in one-on-one contests against last year's Norm Smith medalist, contributing to his 10 intercept possessions, the highest among Essendon players in the game.
The team capitalized on two of those intercepts, converting them into scores. McGrath's eight groundball gets in the back half were particularly crucial, especially when he won them during vital stages of the match.
Earlier, I discussed Essendon's challenges in replicating their past season's ball movement, and it seems the coaches are constantly exploring ways to improve it.
At three-quarter time, they deployed Martin to half-forward, a strategic move that proved effective and personally, I loved it.
During the offseason and preseason, I advocated for Martin to have a more active role around the ground, moving away from his wing position last year. With his ability to consistently have the ball more than 30 times a game, he should always be an asset to the team's forward entries.
My suggestion was to utilize him as a full-time midfielder, granting him the freedom to roam the ground, receive the ball, and deliver it to teammates in dangerous positions. However, after observing the early stages of the last quarter, perhaps his position should indeed be at half-forward.
Playing in this role allows Martin to start in the forward third and transition from half-forward into the midfield to become another link further up the ground and a primary option to receive the ball out of contests.
This enables him to utilize his vision and foot skills to find teammates inside 50 and closer to goal.
His ability to finish was evident with his score involvements, goal assist, and a goal of his own in the last quarter.
Having Martin alongside Gresham in the forward half creates a potent threat to the opposition's half-back line, balancing their attack and defensive prowess with decision making.
Moreover, the move to half-forward may facilitate Redman's return to his previous season's form of providing run and overlap from the backline.
Ultimately, the coaches have now seen the effectiveness of this strategic adjustment, providing them with the knowledge and insight to make necessary changes when needed.
“The road to success and the road to failure are almost exactly the same.”
Throughout the offseason and preseason, Scott and his players have emphasized the importance of focusing on their processes rather than solely on the scoreboard result.
While a draw against the reigning premier of 2023 may initially appear as a missed opportunity, sticking to this motto offers invaluable lessons and insights, both for the coaching staff in terms of strategy and for the players in the heat of battle.
Essendon is undoubtedly on an upward trajectory, as evidenced by their performance in the last three games. However, the pace of their ascent remains uncertain. Nonetheless, consistently challenging the top teams on significant occasions will undoubtedly accelerate their progress and instill greater confidence in the path they are pursuing.
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