Eagles vs Bombers

Road trip.

After Essendon’s first trip away for the season to Adelaide, the Bombers are now backing up on a six-day turnaround with the long journey to Perth to face another team yet to secure its first win of the season, West Coast.

With four games completed in 2025 for Essendon (and Gold Coast, while five for the rest of the competition), I can now begin to rely predominantly on this seasons data to analyse team structures, preferred game styles, strengths and vulnerabilities.

Round 15, 2024.

That day, West Coast threw a few curveballs with their setup to start the game, and in parts, it worked for them.

They clearly won the stoppage contest by 10 and got maximum value, with 11 shots at goal coming from their clearance work, 10 of those being goals. Their centre bounce setup was most effective, turning 15 of those wins into eight shots at goal.

This initial territorial gain played a big role in the Eagles recording 56 forward entries, the 4th most they recorded for the year. It put the Bombers on the back foot at restarts and meant that efficient ball movement was required in order to score.

Let’s turn the tables.

While stoppages were an area of dominance for the Eagles last time, early trends in 2025 suggest this time it’s in Essendon’s favour. That’s something Bombers fans will be hoping translates to the scoreboard this week.

Getting first hands on the ball and being able to dictate will always remain a priority. Despite the issues at the centre bounce against Melbourne last week, Essendon will want to continue its early-season form in this aspect.

The Bombers are ranked 5th for pre-clearance contested possession, with a differential of +2.75. This highlights their ability to win the contested ball inside at stoppages and transition it to teammates on the outside to start possession chains. It’s also an area where West Coast has struggled, (-19, ranked 18th) and Essendon should be aiming to capitalise, starting with territory and applying forward-half pressure from there.

Team selection on Thursday will be intriguing as always, particularly with the unfortunate news that Bryan is out for the season.

Scott has consistently leaned towards playing two genuine rucks, a strategy that’s clearly paid dividends, as Essendon currently ranks 4th in total clearance differential and leads the competition in stoppage clearances around the ground.

There’s a clear blueprint for success here, and coaches don’t have to look far to see how ruck dominance can impact a game against West Coast.

Just last week, Carlton dismantled the Eagles at stoppages, winning the clearance count 40 to 18. That dominance translated directly to the scoreboard, with over 37% of those clearances resulting in a shot at goal, more than 7% better than the competition’s leading side in that metric, Gold Coast, and 13% higher than what West Coast had conceded across their previous four games.

While not every clearance results in a score, having the ball consistently going in your direction has obvious benefits.

No team is beginning more possession chains further from goal than West Coast in 2025, largely due to a clearance differential of -7 at centre bounces (ranked 18th) and -8 around the ground (ranked 18th). They’re also ranked 18th for transitioning the ball from defensive 50 to forward 50. When they do lose possession in their back half, it often results in scores going over their head.

West Coast are conceding over 47 points from chains starting in their defensive half, ranked 17th in the AFL (Carlton last week had 18 shots at goal for 68 points from this area), and Essendon will be looking to pile onto that trend.

The Bombers are averaging 12.7 shots at goal from front-half chains but, so far, haven’t maximised the rewards. While their current average of 42.8 points per game (ranked 6th) is an improvement from 36.8 in 2024 and 33.7 in 2023, greater accuracy in converting their current 24 goals and 27 behinds would help even further.

Multiple methods.

Last week we all saw a shift in the way Essendon attacked the game with ball in hand.

In the first three outings, it was quicker with run and carry to link up by hand. However, against Melbourne, they adopted a more measured approach, using kicking and uncontested marks to control the tempo and dictate the game’s pace. Conversely, West Coast is being forced to gain territory quickly, a reflection of the immense pressure on their backline.

At the moment, Essendon is ranked 9th for forward-half intercepts, and if they can continue the frontal pressure and tackling on the Eagles' defenders, then it opens up the main source of scoring.

No team possesses the ball less than West Coast this year, and no team is possessing the ball less per turnover. Their opponents to date have denied them “easy ball” by limiting their uncontested possessions and uncontested marks, something Essendon also clearly wants to deny.

In the Eagles' five games to date, they have averaged 63.8 uncontested marks per game, ranked 18th, and 180 uncontested possessions, also ranked 18th. (The AFL average for uncontested marks in 2025 is 80, while uncontested possessions is 222.) Their games live in contest, with four out of their five games comprising more groundballs than marks (the outlier being Round 3 against Fremantle). If this is the case again this week, Essendon appears to have an edge given their form to start the season.

While the Eagles are ranked 18th for contested possession differential, with a loss of an enormous 24.8, the Bombers are 3rd with a differential of +14.3. The improvement the Bombers have shown in supporting each other when the ball is in dispute at ground level has helped them win 57 more groundball than the opposition to date. Back up the work that’s been done in tight, get the ball moving in the right direction, and force West Coast to defend for long periods of time.

Putting it on the scoreboard.

Under Brad Scott, Essendon averaged just over 45 points from turnovers in 2024 and just over 48 in 2023. In 2025, that number is trending upwards again, currently 51.3 points. Can the Bombers follow up and punish West Coast just as their opponents have done to date? Let’s hope so.

West Coast have conceded 29.1% of turnovers into scores, the most in the league, allowing an average of 69 points from 18 shots on goal.

In recent history, Essendon has struggled to capitalise on their work behind the ball after regaining possession, often replicating their opponents' strategy for exiting with long bombs inside 50.

Instead, they’ll want to force West Coast defenders into one-on-one matchups rather than zoning a predictable area. The Eagles are conceding the most marks on the lead in the AFL, so targeting that weakness will be crucial.

It’s not a tall lineup overall, and it’s certainly not tall down back for West Coast this year outside of McGovern. Ginbey is being asked to play tall at 191 cm, and Maric has been shifted down from the attacking half to help in the air and assist an inexperienced Edwards.

The tall Essendon forwards, Caddy, Jones, Draper, and possibly a returning Wright from injury, will fancy their chances if they can work together as a group and coordinate effectively with the midfielders ahead of the ball.

Different challenges.

Up to this point, I’ve focused on how Essendon can capitalise on opportunities to exploit West Coast. However, there are defensive vulnerabilities that the Bombers must address.

In 2024, the Bombers struggled against fast, direct ball movement. Geelong, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and yes, West Coast, were the five most direct sides in the league, and four of those games ended disappointingly for Essendon.

That speed of ball movement exposed lapses in the team's structure behind the ball and in individual defenders during one-on-one contests, both in the air and on the ground.

After a shaky start to the season, it was extremely encouraging to see significant improvement in one-on-one contests from McKay and Reid as the key pillars against Port Adelaide, with Prior and Redman also standing up well at ground level. That growth was reinforced again last week against Melbourne, where those four, along with McGrath, Roberts, and Ridley, combined for 41 intercept possessions. Across 18 one-on-one contests, they lost only five for the game, highlighting a growing resilience and cohesion in the defensive unit.

While West Coast’s front third hasn’t seen much action in 2025 (they are ranked 17th for inside-50 entries with under 42 per game), the directness with ball in hand can catch out the attacking positioning that the Essendon defensive line sets up behind the ball.

It’s not a tall forward line outside of Allen and Waterman, but what they do have in abundance down there is a turn of foot. Fast ball movement forward, coupled with the leg speed of Ryan, Baker, Brockman, Owies, and Cripps, could see them challenge their likely matchups in McGrath, Prior, Redman, and Roberts and “get out the back” into dangerous space.

Short sharp notes.

West Coast rank 15th for rebound 50s per opposition inside 50, with Essendon just behind at 16th.

Essendon sit 17th for metres gained per disposal, while West Coast lead the league in that category.

West Coast games feature the second-fewest stoppages per game this season.

In the defensive half, Essendon and West Coast rank first and second respectively for one-on-one contests.

The Eagles’ 77 contested possessions against Carlton last week is the lowest ever recorded in an AFL game.

Last year, Essendon were 6th for intercepts per opposition possession, but are 14th in 2025.

When it comes to turning possession chains into shots at goal, Essendon rank 9th at 23.25%, while West Coast sit 17th at 19.38%.

Conclusion.

After a tough start to the season, the tide is beginning to turn. While the last two opponents haven’t posed the same level of challenges as the opening rounds, there are encouraging signs, particularly in areas that have troubled the Bombers for some time.

The back seven is showing the benefits of continuity, with the three key defenders growing in cohesion. They’re learning each other’s strengths and providing better coverage for weaknesses, creating a more reliable foundation behind the ball.

In contrast, the midfield and forward line have been unsettled by injury, forcing a flexible approach not just game by game, but sometimes within quarters. There’s still work to be done in finding the right balance and structure, and it’s clear the coaching staff are yet to settle on their preferred blueprint in these areas.

This week may not bring the sternest test of the season, but that doesn’t lessen the need for focus or respect for the opposition. Every team can challenge your fundamentals, and Essendon must continue to show they have the answers.

Go Bombers !