Magpies vs Bombers Preview

Opening.

After a tough start to their 2025 season, Essendon quickly dusted themselves off and got back on track with three confidence-building wins. But this week brings one of the biggest challenges of the year: Collingwood at the MCG in the annual Anzac Day clash.

Right now, there’s no harder assignment in football than Collingwood. This is a team that has all aspects of the modern game in order, from defending ball movement to punishing turnovers. It’s the biggest test Essendon has faced so far and will undoubtedly challenge the coaches upstairs to plan and the players on the field to execute.

Last time.

I won’t spend too long on the chaos of the opening 20 minutes last time, it’s more useful as a reference point for how things shifted afterward.

The first quarter was truly disorganised, with few recognisable elements of Essendon's game plan outside of their time in the forward half that could counter Collingwood's strategy.

The second quarter was about regaining some control, and it came through a different approach. Less like 2024, more like what we’ve seen through 2025.

After opening with 43 handballs in the first 20 minutes, the Bombers ramped that up to 49 in the second term. But these weren’t the slow, backwards handballs that feed into Collingwood’s pressure, they were forward, aggressive, and they gained territory.

Once Essendon got the ball out of the contest cleanly, Collingwood’s pressure stopped being a factor, and Essendon began to wrestle back momentum.

In the third quarter, the Bombers denied the Magpies’ intercept game with ball in hand, forcing them to defend every blade of grass on the MCG as the game shifted into uncontested mode.

Contested Possessions.

Essendon controlled the tempo well once in possession during their last matchup, but it all started at the contest, and once again, this is where the foundation will be set.

Winning initial contests hasn’t been a strength for either side in recent years, but both teams have shown clear improvement to start the season. Only eight teams currently sit above even in contested possession differential, with Essendon and Collingwood ranked 3rd and 4th respectively.

Inside stoppages, Essendon holds a slight edge in converting contested wins into clearances. They rank 3rd in the AFL for this metric, behind only Carlton and Gold Coast. Collingwood sits 9th, just above league average.

Caldwell’s absence against Melbourne due to injury wasn’t a major factor in this area, but against West Coast, much of the responsibility fell to Durham as Merrett,

Essendon’s fourth-ranked player in this category, was being tagged to limit his influence. Could we see Tsatas recalled this week, given that he’s the Bombers’ highest-ranked player in this category?

Prior to last week’s game against West Coast, another of Essendon’s strengths had been winning contested possessions outside of stoppages, both ahead of and behind the ball. Across their two wins before Round 5, the Bombers were +44 in post clearance contests, both aerially and at ground level. They’ll be keen to return to that form after unexpectedly losing this area to a lowly ranked West Coast side.

The next step after winning inside the contest is getting it to the outside and then capitalising on the scoreboard.

Make clearances count.

Essendon has played five games so far this season and has only lost the clearance count once, in Round 5 against Melbourne, by just four. As it stands, they are the number one ranked team in the competition for total clearances. If there’s one area in need of attention this week, it’s at centre bounce, where Collingwood’s stoppage strength is.

That has several important flow-on effects, which I will cover shortly.

In terms of converting clearances into scoring opportunities, there’s little separating the two sides. Collingwood generates a shot at goal from 25.75% of their clearance wins, while Essendon sits just ahead at 26.13%.

Defensively, both sides are also strong. Collingwood concedes shots from just 19.9% of their clearance losses, impressive given three of their past opponents rank in the top eight for scores from stoppages. Essendon is even more effective in this area, conceding shots from only 18.78% of stoppage losses, with two of their opponents also among the top eight in this metric.

Where the greater difference lies is in the territory battle that unfolds once the initial clearance is won or lost.

Holding territory.

Setting up field position from the centre bounce and maintaining that territory will be crucial for Essendon, with locking the ball inside forward 50 requiring an urgent upgrade.

Only West Coast allows more intercept possessions or kickouts from that zone, transitioning up to the other end. Once it gets there, it’s hitting the scoreboard far too often. Collingwood is a team that, once inside their forward 50, gets maximum value. The Magpies rank 4th in converting forward 50 entries into shots on goal, while the Bombers rank 4th worst at preventing them.

That issue is compounded by how easily opposition teams are entering that zone in transition, leading to too many one-on-one contests without enough defensive support. Essendon averages the 2nd most one-on-one contests behind centre and loses more than a quarter of them.

Attacking the zone.

Ball-winning ability is fairly even in this matchup, but the defensive approach to stopping opponents from turning those wins into scores is where the real difference lies, and it all comes down to structure.

Essendon’s preference for man-on-man defence versus Collingwood’s structured zone setup will be one of the game's most intriguing tactical battles.

The first layer of defence from the Pies is a heavy zone press, with players assigned areas on the ground to protect in order to restrict short uncontested marks. The plan is to either force the opposition to go long in straight lines or switch direction to slow down the transition.

In the past, the second, and, if needed, third layers of their defence followed the same setup. However, this year, those layers have shifted to assigned matchups, more closely resembling a man-on-man structure. How the Bombers attack this will test their work rate and skill execution in maintaining possession to make their way forward.

Here’s an example of what Collingwood’s zone defence looks like. Notice how the players are focused on running to a specific area of the ground rather than immediately locating a man, always on the move and ready if an opponent enters their zone as a target.

Collingwood are equal 4th for percentage of intercepts in their front half, and they’re turning those into scores, averaging 42 points per game from this zone. Meanwhile, Essendon are conceding just over 40 points per game from that same area.

Will the Bombers look to "run" their way out with quick hands, taking the game on and forcing Collingwood to step up their pressure? Or will they opt to "stretch" the width of the ground, making the Pies defend for extended periods, just as they did in Round 17 last year, when Essendon racked up 121 uncontested marks across the back two-thirds?

Turnover scoring.

Essendon’s main concern this year has been its ability to defend scores after turning the ball over. Ranking anywhere near Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast in any metric is a worry, and unfortunately, those are the only teams the Bombers sit above in opposition points from turnovers.

Conceding 57.6 points per game from turnovers is putting too much pressure on Essendon to match that scoring efficiency themselves. The opposition's strike rate in turning intercepts into shots on goal has gradually declined in recent weeks, but despite fewer shots being generated, the locations from which they are taken remain too favourable, allowing accuracy to compensate for fewer opportunities.

While Essendon’s opposition is converting 21.7% of intercepts into shots, Collingwood is making it much tougher, allowing just 17.3%—the 4th best rate in the competition. This is where Essendon needs to bridge the gap, as Collingwood is conceding only 35.3 points per game from turnovers, 22 fewer than the Bombers.

There’ll be chances to hit back the other way, but they’ll need to be earned.

As explained earlier, Collingwood primarily sets up with a zone defence as their first layer to intercept possession. When they win the ball, they rely on numbers in support to move forward, using their hands to link up with run and carry.

Essendon’s players in that area will need to quickly switch into defensive mode, closing space in front of them to force Collingwood into either handballing backwards or kicking under pressure from much further out.

With the half-forwards pushing up alongside their midfield teammates, Essendon can look to return serve by applying pressure in this zone, winning the ball back, and forcing the now out-of-position Collingwood players to scramble as they try to locate an Essendon target.

Danger danger danger.

Essendon’s small to medium defenders will need to be up for a challenge this week, as Collingwood ranks 4th in winning ground level contests inside 50. Hill and Elliott are both among the top 35 players (with a minimum of two games played) in winning ground balls in the forward third. Hill is ranked 4th, and tall target Membrey joins both of them at 6th. However, the most concerning issue follows.

Essendon is conceding the highest percentage of defensive 50 ground-ball losses per opposition inside 50 entry that isn’t marked in the competition, losing over 41% of these contests. There’s no better opportunity to see improvement, with a focus on matchups, support from teammates pushing back, and slowing down the speed of entries further up the ground.

Short sharp notes.

Despite the gap in defending turnover scores, there’s only a 3-point difference in scoring from turnover: Collingwood average 53 (5th most), Essendon 50 (7th most).

Essendon are giving up 96.8 uncontested marks per game, 2nd most in the competition.

Essendon will want to get off to a good start, as they’ve only won one first quarter this year, with an average score of 15.4 points. Conversely, Collingwood is three and three, with an average score of 23.6 points.

Essendon needs to be awake quickly after halftime, as Collingwood is the best third-quarter team in the competition, averaging just under three goals more than their opponents.

Using last week’s lineup, six Essendon players will be lining up for their first Anzac Day game.

The occasion.

Major injuries to Essendon’s ideal lineup have hurt them early in the season, and coming up against a near full-strength Collingwood will be a real test of the Bombers’ depth.

The forecast conditions will add another layer to the contest and simplify how both teams use the ball, but the fundamentals will still be essential, winning more contests than your opponent will be even more critical.

This is a game every Essendon player should want to be part of, and there are plenty built to perform on this stage. Let’s see who’s ready to step up.

Go Bombers !