Redemption.
After a tough loss last week and with their first bye of the season looming, Essendon faces an early checkpoint in their 2025 campaign this Thursday night.
A five-day turnaround offers the Bombers a chance to quickly respond to their poor showing against Adelaide, an ideal opportunity to reset mentally and regain momentum.
Port Adelaide rebounded strongly from their disappointing Round 1 performance, returning to the standards they’ve built in recent years. Essendon must adopt the same mindset, focusing on their core values and non-negotiables to get their season back on track.
With only eight quarters played by both teams, it’s still too early to rely entirely on 2025 data. While I’ll reference some of Essendon’s and Port Adelaide’s early-season trends, much of the analysis will still be based on 2024 metrics.
Last time.
Is it worth revisiting a matchup that was 21 games ago for Essendon? In some areas, yes, but not too deeply.
From a long-term perspective, I didn’t view the Round 4 loss as a major setback, despite the hefty 69-point margin. While the final three quarters were disappointing, the team’s strong last quarter against St Kilda the week prior and their opening quarter against Port Adelaide provided key learning moments. That game was one of the first real tests of whether the list had the talent and ability to play a finals-standard brand of football.
Building on the final 20 minutes of their win over St Kilda the previous week, Essendon’s forward press was again effective in the opening quarter against Port Adelaide.
Through relentless tackling and defensive pressure, the Bombers disrupted the Power's ball movement, creating turnovers. Once they regained possession via intercept, Essendon dominated uncontested possessions, finishing with a +31 differential to control the game’s territory.
But from the second quarter onward, Port Adelaide adjusted, shifting from a zone defence to a one-on-one structure. The change had an immediate impact, disrupting Essendon’s traditional uncontested style. It was the first real test of the Bombers’ ability to handle one-on-one football in 2024, and unfortunately, they weren’t up to the challenge.
However, key lessons emerged from this game: apply pressure from all areas, force turnovers, and control the tempo in the front half. Essendon took these markers forward, and over the next seven games, they recorded a +36 differential in intercepts and a +89 differential in inside 50s, crucial factors in winning six of those games and drawing the other.
More clues.
Another key takeaway from Essendon’s last clash with Port Adelaide has resurfaced as an issue in their opening two games this season.
That night, the Power took 86 uncontested marks in the back two-thirds of the ground, allowing them to transition forward efficiently once the game moved outside of stoppages and contest.
So far in 2025, Essendon has conceded 77 and 95 uncontested marks in those same zones, highlighting a recurring problem.
A potential blueprint for improvement? Collingwood’s Round 1 performance against Port Adelaide, where the Magpies restricted them to just 70 uncontested marks in those areas, a starting point to their win.
But it’s not just about allowing easy uncontested movement, it’s also about what happens at the end of those possession chains.
The AFL average for points conceded from defensive half chains this season sits just over 37 per game (compared to just over 40 in 2024). Right now, Essendon is leaking nearly 57 per game, well above the norm. Once again, Collingwood provides a useful benchmark.
Against Richmond last week, Port Adelaide generated 76 points from defensive half chains, aided by 108 uncontested marks outside their forward 50. But against the Magpies, that number was just 29 points, showing the impact of limiting uncontested control.
Stoppages.
Essendon faces multiple challenges this week, and as always, it starts at centre bounce. Their last meeting with Port Adelaide in 2024 left some painful memories as the Bombers were smashed 19-6 in centre clearances, with the Power turning six of those into scoring shots, piling on 26 points without Essendon having a disposal.
The absence of Butters will help, but Port still boasts a formidable midfield unit. Wines, Rozee, and Horne-Francis bring a blend of size and speed, while Drew provides a balance through a defensive mindset.
One potential advantage for Essendon is their two-pronged ruck setup, a structure Brad Scott has favored throughout his tenure.
Bryan has attended just over half of the Bombers’ ruck contests, with Draper covering the remainder. In contrast, Port Adelaide’s ruck setup leans heavily on Sweet, who has contested over 86% of their ruck battles, the second-highest workload of any ruckman this season. His relief option has been Wines, whose 187cm frame, while solid, should be a clear mismatch against Bryan’s tap work and Draper’s athleticism.
It will be interesting to see whether Hinkley or Carr, whoever the coach is, turns to Soldo as additional ruck support. They would only need to refer back to his performance in the last matchup, where he earned six coaches' votes, aided by his tap work at the centre bounce, which led to three of their six scores from that zone.
Scoring from stoppages.
Last season, Essendon ranked 7th in the competition for turning a clearance win into a shot at goal, only Geelong and GWS ranked lower among finalists.
Their 26.19% conversion rate improved in Round 1 against Hawthorn, where they generated shots from 30% of clearances. However, that dominance wasn’t fully reflected on the scoreboard, as they managed just 5.10 from those opportunities. The bigger concern will be how effective Port Adelaide can be in this area.
In 2024, the Power were the league’s best team at converting clearances into scoring shots, and that efficiency was on display again last week against Richmond.
Despite losing the clearance count by four, they turned an incredible 52.7% of their clearances into shots at goal. This week, a more effective set up at stoppages will be crucial.
It’s not just about stopping Horne-Francis from hitting the drop of the ball at speed uninterrupted, or being strong at groundball to go head-to-head with Wines; it’s also about the space afforded outside the immediate “bubble” to Rozee. Allowing him too much room to receive handballs will only evoke bad memories from the 2024 clash.
If Essendon can keep him on the “inside” and force him into rushed disposals without the opportunity to “give and get,” while also pressuring both Horne-Francis and Wines, the two primary clearance beasts, into hack kicks for territory, it will give the defenders behind the ball a much fairer opportunity to win or halve contests, especially compared to what they endured last week.
Contest.
Earlier, I highlighted Essendon’s struggle to bring the game back into a contest once the opposition gained control on the outside. However, if they can address this against Port Adelaide, it could become a key strength in a part of the game that worked well against Hawthorn. More importantly, it provides an opportunity to capitalise on a potential weakness with Port Adelaide.
In Round 1, Essendon won contested possession by 24, including a +15 differential in pre-clearance contests and +9 post-clearance. Even in groundball contests, an issue in previous seasons, they dominated with a +14 differential against Hawthorn, the number one ranked team in that category last year.
By contrast, Port Adelaide has struggled in this area to start 2025. They lost contested possession by six to Richmond and by seven to Collingwood, two sides that finished 18th and 13th in this metric last season. The Power themselves ranked 15th in 2024 with a -3 differential.
If the Bombers can replicate their Round 1 ability to consistently win contests post-clearance, just as Collingwood did against Port Adelaide (+15 in that area)—it could expose further vulnerabilities in the Power’s game.
Ahead of the ball.
In 2024, Richmond only recorded 50 or more inside 50s in 10 games, and just three times against top eight teams. Yet last week, they managed exactly 50 entries against Port Adelaide, following on from Collingwood’s 65 inside 50s in Round 1, which included 17 marks in that zone.
Clearly, Essendon needs to improve their efficiency in finding a marking target inside 50. Right now, they rank a clear last for marks per inside 50, but a positional adjustment could help address this issue.
If you’ve followed my previews and reviews, you’ll already know my stance on where Jones should be positioned structurally. With Langford and Wright both out injured, I was surprised the coaching staff continued with him on the wing last week. Now, with Perkins set to miss, this feels like the perfect time to move him back into a role that better suits both him and the team.
As a winger and part of the midfield mix, Jones lacks the attributes, whether it be leg speed or damage by disposal, to truly hurt the opposition. A more dynamic player with natural ball winning ability and greater willingness to take the game on would better suit that midfield mix, especially given both Tsatas and Perkins are unavailable.
Up forward, Jones’ height would provide much-needed support for Caddy, ensuring he isn’t constantly the primary target. He could also add another tall marking option, whether Draper is forward or rucking, while forcing a Port Adelaide defender to stay accountable closer to goal.
Intercept.
Last week’s performance didn’t offer many obvious positives, but there was a hidden gem beneath the surface.
Essendon generated 17 shots at goal from intercepts, converting those into 67 points.
In 2024, the Bombers ranked 14th for turning intercepts into shots, averaging a 17.76% strike rate. Their efficiency last week, however, was 26.9%, which would have been the highest in the league last season.
They only surpassed that mark once in 2024, recording a 28.3% rate against West Coast in Round 15. Under the Scott era, they have had more than 17 intercept-sourced shots just twice: against GWS in Round 4, 2023 (25 shots) and Melbourne in Round 5, 2023 (19 shots).
Once again, Collingwood provided the blueprint in Round 1, scoring 99 points from intercepts at a strike rate of just over 30%.
Conclusion.
While the second half of 2024 didn’t go as planned and the start of 2025 hasn’t lived up to expectations, last week’s performance felt more like an outlier than a true reflection of where this team is at. One poor game doesn’t define a season, but it does provide a reality check, a reminder of the standards that need to be met week in and week out.
This week isn’t just about attacking Port Adelaide’s weaknesses or nullifying their strengths. It’s about Essendon taking ownership of their own game, re-establishing their key pillars, and playing to the identity they’ve been building.
With a bye looming, this is the perfect opportunity to respond, reset, and take momentum into the next phase of the season. A strong performance on Thursday night isn’t just about the four points, it’s about making a statement that last week was the exception, not the rule.
Go Bombers!
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