Bombers vs Saints Preview

When the fixture was released last year, Essendon received a letter about an audit scheduled for Saturday, March 30th.

This audit would entail examining the 23 players from Essendon who participated, along with the coaching setup and system involved.

After only one investigation last year, this year there are two, the first coinciding with last year's round three, the second near the end of the season in round 20.

Ross Lyon will serve as the investigating officer, with his team of 23 researchers handling the workload. I say, bring it on, it's a good time of year to review the numbers and assess where you stand.

In true Lyon style, St. Kilda prioritizes defending and making it harder for opponents in every aspect.

Last year's head to head clash came at the right time for both teams. St. Kilda was coming off two impressive defensive displays against 2022 finalists Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs, holding those teams to 52 and 41 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Essendon had scored over 100 points against lower-ranked teams Hawthorn and the Gold Coast.

To celebrate 150 years of the St. Kilda Football Club, the game took place at the MCG.

The Saints jumped out of the blocks, kicking the first five goals, with the first two from 50 metre penalties, and scoring from their first seven entries inside 50, all seven coming from turnovers. This established the 34-point lead they jumped out to.

One team flicked the switch early, while the other was still trying to figure out the instructions on how to wire it up.

This delayed start ultimately cost Essendon the game, even though they mounted a spirited comeback, gradually closing the margin and leveling the scores in the final term.

The Bombers won the stoppage clearance by 12, setting up a +14 possession chain advantage, but St. Kilda won turnover effectiveness, with +32 points from turnovers. Wilkie was impassable in the air, taking seven intercept marks, and their small brigade cashed in, with Higgins and Butler kicking four goals each.

It wasn't a game that would prove to be a good form guide for the finals.

Outside of both teams' attacking third, Essendon took 111 uncontested marks that night, while St. Kilda took 94. The average in finals football over the last three seasons is 73.7.

We know Essendon didn't qualify for finals, and the Saints couldn't progress past the first week.

Lyon's setup and system have modes depending on the opposition at hand.

If the opposition wants to play contested, they can switch into uncontested mode.

Last season, St. Kilda games featured the most uncontested possessions between both teams.

If the opposition wants to play simple and direct, they've got a way to disable that. In 2023, the Saints were the second-best team for opposition disposals per inside 50 and the 5th best for opposition metres gained to an inside 50, averaging 16.1 possessions to generate a shot at goal for their opponents.

If the opposition wants to play a high possession game, they'll turn up the pressure and force turnovers, ranking third for total turnovers per game between two teams last year. They'll also deny the opposition the football, with 83 uncontested marks a game outside their attacking third.

Critics have accused Lyon's lineup of being too dour, lacking the bounce and pace needed to break free from the shackles they impose. However, this offseason, he actively sought and successfully implemented changes, not only in personnel but also in their capabilities. During trade week, Liam Henry was acquired, known for his speed and ball use assets, which Essendon fans are well aware of. Fortunately, Essendon avoids facing him this week. Riley Bonner was also added via the Pre Season draft, bringing experience and an attacking style that Lyon can leverage. Both players have already demonstrated the impact of change. Bonner seamlessly integrated into the half back line, alleviating some of the burden previously carried by Sinclair. In both games to date, he has positioned himself just off the immediate contest, providing defensive coverage while also being an option for handball receives to create overlap and space. This movement has encouraged players around him and ahead of him moving to become an option.

Together with Sinclair, Bonner forms part of the dynamic duo at half back, with Wanganeen Mileara completing the trio.

All three of those players boast foot skills to open up the ground, with Bonner and Wanganeen Milera utilizing those foot skills over 80% of the time. The latter also boasts a kick effectiveness of over 80%.

Bonner is averaging 7 rebound 50s per game, while Wanganeen Milera averages 6.5, ranking one and two in that category for the Saints. Both players are also the top two for average metres gained, each surpassing 550 metres and ranking in the top 14 in the league.

To try to dull their impact, Essendon needs to pressure them from every angle, closing the space and taking away their vision to find teammates.

St. Kilda prefers to move the ball wide from the defensive half to mitigate the damage from rebounds coming back at them. Therefore, they will seek out teammates boundary side.

This means keeping your direct opponents within reach to cut off outlets and force long kicks to contests or dangerous areas of the corridor that Essendon should be controlling. The zone ahead needs to be tight with very little room for exiting.

Steele and Ross have been mainstays in the midfield for years. Crouch spends time with them, but that combination struggles with pace, so Windhager and Jones roll through there for balance. It's a nice mix of contest work from Steele, run from Jones, and defensive pressure and shutdown abilities of both Ross and Windhager.

Steele and Ross are not noted kickers, preferring to use handball to teammates just outside the immediate vicinity. But there's not much depth to their rotations outside those. Burns is the only other midfielder to take a turn this year. They cover for the limited options by sending half-back Sinclair and wingman Hill up to the contest.

Sinclair has only had one game back from injury, but last year he spent a lot of time in the midfield and at centre bounces. Those two are examples of teammates that Steele and Ross look to feed from inside to out.

One player who has helped enormously in pushing back to aid the defense is Wood.

Of the two wingers, he's the one who plays behind the ball, helping generate an extra to impact in the air. He's an enormous loss to their setup, so it will be interesting to see who they decide to replace him with.

The Essendon midfield depth has been talked about a lot this year, now is a good time to test it. Merrett, Caldwell, Hobbs, Perkins, Durham, Setterfield, Gresham, Duursma, and Stringer can all take their turns this week to out run and outwork their opponents. If they can repeat the clearance effectiveness from last year and in turn get territory for the forwards, this will help set up a forward-half game that Essendon has been craving.

It's time to stand up forward line.

The clearance game has been the main source in starting the 116 possession chains a game for Essendon, and in turn for scoring. From this source, the Bombers are +7 in score differential to date against the opposition, while St. Kilda are dead even.

In this head to head matchup, Essendon has the advantage with five extra shots compared to this weekend's rival. Of course, we would prefer a better return in scores from turnover. At this stage, there's a -36 points differential for Essendon, while the Saints have +25 from that source.

Last week, Essendon opted for two rucks, and I anticipate they will continue with this strategy. Marshall boasts the highest time on the ground among all rucks this year at 87.5%. He takes 89% of St. Kilda’s ruck contests, while Owens provides the relief ruck.

Owens' strength lies in his ground level contested abilities, often acting as an additional midfielder when on ball. I expect the more agile Draper to match up against him rather than Goldstein.

Contested marks by ruckmen around the ground are uncommon in modern football. Coaches typically prefer ruckmen to be involved in possession chains to advance the ball forward, a role which Marshall executes.

All five marks he averages are uncontested, and over 50% of his 22 possessions are also uncontested.

He frequently leads up at the kicker, becoming an integral part of the possession chain.

It's rare to see a ruckman delivering inside 50, currently he ranks as their number two in this aspect.

This further emphasizes the importance of maintaining a tighter midfield zone for the Bombers.

In last year's matchup, the Saints were too quick, too smart, too good at ground ball contests inside their front third.

They had 19 forward 50 ground ball wins from 42 opportunities, that rate was too high.

On that night, their equal number one ranked player with four was Jade Gresham. Let's hope he can bring that this week together with his new teammates.

They'll need to work hard for it, as St. Kilda doesn't rely on one on one defending, nor do they defend with even numbers. Instead, they deploy a full 18 man defensive strategy that pushes past halfway to provide support. You would have heard this called "making the ground small", it works not just in defending but also attacking.

The attack works by having speed in the front half, with players like Higgins, Phillipou, and King ready to exploit open spaces behind the defence if they regain possession.

I mentioned earlier that Marshall is their second ranked player for inside 50 deliveries, well King is number one, underscoring his defensive work rate and ability to transition back towards goal. I would like to see Essendon set up a “sweeper” as the deepest player. The Saints want to make the ground small, so Essendon being outnumbered ahead shouldn't be a big deal in such a “small ground”

Clearly, with King sidelined, St. Kilda's offensive potency takes a hit. They've relied on eight different goal kickers so far, with two being King and Henry.

We know what that will mean, yes?

Lyon will want to keep the scoring low.

In losses last year, they averaged 70.2 points a game, in wins, 87.6.

I would be disappointed if Essendon gave up 87 points or more considering St. Kilda's outs.

If everything is in order and properly organized here, Essendon can achieve a successful outcome with this appointment and know that the work currently being put in is a model that is on the right path.

Go Dons !!