We shouldn't completely ignore last year's metrics, but now that we're four games into the season, we can use this year's data a little more as a guide to the profile Essendon is setting up, especially against the Western Bulldogs this week.
I'll begin by referencing a bit of the 2023 matchup between the two teams, albeit limited due to the GPS failure for Essendon after the first quarter in round 19, which hindered any further benefits from that point on.
Sounds a little familiar to last week doesn’t it?
Anyway, let's start.
Good:
The first quarter started very well.
Clearances were up 11 to 5, and contested possessions were 32 to 25. As we all know, this is the Bulldogs' domain. For 2023, they sat at +4.9 for total clearances and +6.7 in winning contests.
Additionally, Essendon was ahead on inside 50s, leading 17 to 10. This is a fantastic start by the Bombers and obviously a major factor in their 11-point lead at that point. If only that momentum had continued.
Bad:
After being up in clearances by six at quarter time, Essendon went on to only win another 15 for the rest of the game, compared to the Bulldogs' 42.
Possessions won at the contest followed a similar route, starting with +9 but turning into a deficit of 30.
All this would normally be indicative of being dominated in disposals, but this time, Essendon only lost that count by three.
It would also usually mean being outplayed in inside 50s, but this time, Essendon broke even with 49 apiece.
Despite this, 58 times Essendon started with the ball in hand in the defensive half, but only 11 times did it go inside forward 50. Only twice did it go inside the 25 from goal, and only once did it score from those chains, resulting in just one behind.
The loss was one of the worst of the season. Now that I have finally suppressed those memories, I have put that game behind me forever.
Time to look forward.
Let's be honest, the Western Bulldogs are a team that has had the upper hand on Essendon for too long now. Coach Beveridge has only lost to them once in 10 head-to-head matchups, that being in round 21, 2021, when Essendon performed exceptionally well, scoring 15 goals seven to the Bulldogs' 12 goals 12 despite having 21 fewer forward 50 entries and 10 fewer shots at goal.
But we have to be fair; throughout Beveridge's era as coach, the two teams have had vastly different capabilities, with the Bombers having to "start again" post the Bulldogs' 2016 Premiership. Well, now the differences shouldn't be and aren't so far apart.
Since the disappointment of losing to the Dogs 2019 by 104 points, in the next five meetings between the teams, Essendon has averaged a differential loss in clearances by seven, in contested possessions by 17.2, and in the inside 50 count by 10.2, with the only "win" in the three categories over five years being for clearances in 2021.
In the past, their midfield depth has been too deep against Essendon, realistically it has been too deep for most teams, but I don't think it is anymore, partly due to their makeup, and partly due to Essendon's adjustments.
I'll cover the differences soon.
The Bulldogs have assets all over the park: forward, back, and midfield.
The forward line boasts plenty of height to challenge aerially, with Naughton, Ugle Hagan, and either Darcy or Lobb forming the tall targets. Historically, these three talls have primarily operated as a unit inside the forward 50, allowing the midfielders space to maneuver. However, there has been a slight change this year.
Ugle Hagan has been a constant presence inside the 50, ranking as their number one targeted player of the forward group. This is partly because Naughton has spent more time further up the ground, providing an additional option for his midfielders and aiding defensive efforts.
Currently, over 54% of Naughton's disposals are outside the forward third, and he's averaging 1.3 marks inside 50, down from his previous average of 2.5.
This change in role has not only opened up the front third, providing more space for Ugle Hagan to operate, but it has also benefited another player, whom I wish I didn't have to name but unfortunately will later.
Last year, the talls often competed for the same ball in the air, leading to predictability for the defenders, this led them to be ranked 13th for shots at goal per inside 50 entry, and 14th for opposition rebound efficiency.
Another advantage of Naughton being further from goal is evident in defending opposition transitions from the Bulldogs' forward 50.
Much has been said about Essendon's struggles in defending opposition transitions, with the Bombers ranking 16th for opposition possessions per intercept last year, well the Bulldogs were 15th in the same measurement, intercepting the ball every 5.3 opposition possessions.
This figure has improved slightly to every 5.1. Naughton's positional adjustment has played a role in this improvement.
By spending more time higher up the ground, he has assisted the midfield in impeding opponents' quick rebounds and dictating the areas they must navigate to bypass him.
His matchup will face decisions: whether to follow him when he presents as an option to his teammates further up the ground or to remain back and support fellow defenders as an outnumber behind.
Shall I mention Weightman's name when discussing the Bulldogs? Unfortunately Essendon fans understand his impact, actions, and the emotions he evokes when we hear it. His partner in crime alongside the talls is Rhylee West, but they approach their roles inside 50 differently.
Weightman is their second most targeted player inside their forward 50, currently averaging 1.8 marks on the lead, number one at the Bulldogs and has had 3.5 shots on goal per game, resulting in 11 goals for the season.
West, on the other hand, serves as the "true" small pressure forward of the duo, registering 1.5 tackles inside 50 and 1.5 contested possessions won inside 50. Although he doesn't contribute as much to the scoreboard, with only 4 goals and 1.8 shots at goal so far.
This presents an opportunity for their match ups to push forward and attack when the opportunity arises.
Essendon averages 43.0 rebounding opposition entries from their back third, currently ranked 4th best.
Martin and McGrath both feature prominently in this metric, ranking in the top 15 for this defensive aspect.
Every team has sought to reshape their half-back line to emulate Collingwood and the dynamic game style brought by Nick Daicos in terms of run, carry, overlap, and attack from that position. However, the Bulldogs have had this setup for years.
Johannisen won a Norm Smith Medal playing in that manner, while Daniels has been pivotal in that role since his first year.
In recent times, Dale and Richards have further diversified the options in that area.
All four possess enviable kicking skills, boasting a kick effectiveness of 67% and above from a minimum of 4.3 rebounds and kickouts.
Richards currently ranks 13th in the competition for rebound 50s, of which he is 8th of those 13 for metres gained a game.
Johannisen and Dale are not far behind.
Unlike Port Adelaide last week, the Bulldogs combine their skills with remarkable leg speed, presenting a challenge for the improving half-forwards of the Bombers to limit or, ideally, force them into defensive roles.
Kickouts are typically handled by Dale, Johannisen, and Bramble.
When Dale and Johannisen take the kick, they seek to hit an easy pass to initiate a handball option and generate overlap, encouraging forward movement from their teammates.
It's crucial for the Bombers' direct matchups to be alert to this strategy, following the Bulldogs' players after they dispose of the ball to minimize their potential impact.
But the focus shouldn't solely be on defensive measures.
Gresham has proven his worth up forward, averaging 3.8 groundball wins, which is ranked 2nd best in the league, 3 shots at goal, and 1.3 goal assists.
If Menzie can improve his output and the rotating players can push forward as options to their teammates, this will test the accountability of the Bulldogs to truly defend.
Accompanying the Bulldogs' fleet-footed defenders are a pair of undersized key backs in Jones and Khamis. Thus far, they haven't faced regular one-on-one challenges, with Jones averaging only 3 per game and Khamis 2. However, this remains an area Essendon should seek to exploit, employing multiple strategies to do so.
One approach is to transition the ball quickly whenever the opportunity arises, or rather, whenever it's forced.
Essendon should aim to generate turnovers as frequently as possible and capitalize on winning possession by swiftly advancing forward to catch defenders out of position or lacking sufficient support.
Now let's delve into the heart of the battle: the midfield.
For quite some time, the Western Bulldogs have dominated the clearance differential, boasting impressive numbers like +4.9, +7.9, and +5.2, which have ranked them in the top two for the past three seasons.
It's intriguing to observe the beginning of this season's stats, with them currently ranked 6th with a differential of +2.3.
As expected, Liberatore, Bontempelli and Treleor have been the main drivers of this strength once again, but the absence of Smith and delayed appearance of McRae have affected their variety early in the season, with newcomer Sanders filling in some of the gap.
Can Essendon manage to neutralize Liberatore and Bontempelli and leverage their extra rotations for an advantage to maintain their clearance strength in 2024?
The balance between inside and outside play remains a learning curve for Essendon.
Overcommitting inside the contest can leave them vulnerable once the ball moves outside, while players positioned too far away on the outside can't impact to keep the ball in tight.
Although there have been glimpses of a balanced approach against Sydney, St. Kilda and Port Adelaide, there’s a need for continued improvement this week.
In my view, Bontempelli has been the standout player week in, year out for the past six years. His statistics speak for themselves, if I was to elaborate, I would have to create another post.
Essendon faces a challenge in matching up against him, as no team has an ideal matchup. Thus, the focus should be on minimizing his scoring impact and putting pressure on him defensively.
He's a force both inside and outside the contest. Essendon's midfielders on the outer layer must be alert and mindful of his teammates, understanding that it's not just about competing with Bontempelli for the first touch but also about anticipating his distribution to players on the outside.
Whether the Bulldogs are in control or not at stoppages dictates Bontempelli's positioning and role. If clearances are going their way, he'll set up as a first or second receiving option. If Essendon is on top, he'll insert himself to lead his team out.
Coach Scott's inclination towards two dedicated rucks has been evident since his tenure at North Melbourne.
Following last week's disappointing performance with both rucks failing to connect with their midfield, an improved showing is anticipated as they face off against English and most likely Darcy. However, these two pose a different challenge, focusing not just on ruck contests but also on mobility around the ground and their ability to contribute to ball movement.
Draper and Goldstein currently average 10 and 8.3 disposals per game respectively, placing them in the lower bracket for ruckmen's disposals in the modern game.
In contrast, Darcy averages 12.7 disposals while English is among the top bracket with 18.
The two, especially English, remain involved in or around the source rather than pushing behind or too far ahead, unless they recognize they're not required.
Only three ruckman average more kicks than English a game and only two for more inside 50 entries and for uncontested marks around the ground.
While Darcy is still in the early stages of his career and demonstrates more aerial prowess of the two in contest situations, English effectively operates as another midfielder within their group. With Wright still suspended, Draper has been allocated more time forward, thus putting Goldstein's versatility around the ground to the test this week.
The Bulldogs have always been a possession-oriented team, so it's no surprise that in 2024 they rank number one in disposal differential with +39.5 against their opponents.
You know exactly what I'm going to write about now in reference to this: intercepts.
It's one thing to have a positive clearance differential like Essendon currently does, but it's another to be able to have the ability to win the ball back once the opposition has their turn, and there are some worrying metrics in this battle this week.
Essendon currently sits 9th for uncontested possession differential, with a +9.5 advantage over its previous opponents.
At the top of this list are the Western Bulldogs with +38.5. When you add that to the difference between the two teams for uncontested marks around the ground, plus the 725.8 extra metres gained per match in favor of the Bulldogs, you can now see why it's extremely important for Essendon to be able to win the ball back much more regularly than it has this season.
The Bombers' intercept game remains a constant work in progress this season. It's crucial not to waste the hard work gained in
winning territory only to concede it too easily due to unpressured ball movement.
The Bombers have relied on applying pressure at the source by outnumbering opponents to generate turnovers and interceptions. While this approach has been effective sporadically during games this season, this week, it needs to reach another level and be sustained for longer periods throughout the game.
Go Dons !
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